Thursday, February 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport:  A lot of data on the Economic Calendar today, which we'll start with the Initial Jobless Claims.  This week's report is important, as it's the Sample Week, which is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' with their Job Numbers.  This week it came in at 216k, which was much lower than it's previous week's reporting of 239k.  We've been watching this weekly number to see if it's bottomed out, as when it begins to rise, then historically a Recession has followed 100% of the time.  Durable Goods Orders disappointed in December, as it only rose 1.2%, which had expectations of 1.4%.  If you remove Transportation from the data, then it only rose 0.1%.  Another disappointment came from the Philly Fed, which is the Manufacturing data in the Philadelphia region.  It went from 17 in January to -4.1 in February, which is the first time it contracted in approximately 3 years.  We saw another decline in Existing Home Sales in January dropping from 4.99 million annualized units to 4.94..  Of course, the Holidays are historically slow periods, but there may have been another element that played a role, which is the decline in the Stock Market during that span.  Home Buyers may have altered their decisions as a result of a declining portfolio.  Leading Indicators dropped another 0.1% again in January.  Another data point that seems to be pointing toward a slowdown in the economy.  Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 54.9 to 53.7 in February; however, Markit Services PMI rose from 54.2 to 56.2 in February.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on not only the poor data from the US, but from Europe and Japan, as well.  This renews the worries over a Global Slowdown.  MBS is down 16bps, which Mortgage Rates slightly worsened.  Yields have climbed up to 2.69%.

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