Friday, February 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/15/19 We have a few economic data pieces to report from the Economic Calendar.  We'll start with the Manufacturing data in the NY region, which is the Empire State Index, which reported an 8.8 on it's February numbers.  This is up from 3.9 in January.  An improvement and better than most forecasts, but still a bit tame for what we'd like.  The Industrial Production dropped 0.6% in January; and Capacity Utilization dropped from 7837% to 78.2% in January.  Consumer Sentiment improved from 91.2 to 95.5 in February, based on the Gov't Shutdown ending.  Stocks are WAY Up this morning (DOW over 300), as news of continued progress in US/China Trade Talks (touted by both Presidents) and they will be continued in DC next week.  Fed Members have been speaking all week, which nothing was out of line to jostle the Markets, but Fed Member Brainard commented Thursday that the Fed might need to end it's Balance Sheet reduction later this year -this will bode well for Stocks and MBS.  Also, Spending Bill is supposed to be signed, but a new twist erupted when President announced the National Emergency to come up with the extra funds for the southern Border Wall.  MBS started the morning below it's 25 DMA, but has risen above it.  However, it is down 5bps from yesterday's close.  Mortgage Rates should be unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are currently at 2.66% and trying to buck it's downward trend.  If it's successful, then it will pressure MBS lower -thus higher Mortgage Rates.  Let's see how it plays out!

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