Monday, March 8, 2021

Daily Market Report 3/8/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We only have Wholesale Inventories to report today, which met expectations at 1.3% MoM increase.  Stocks are readjusting themselves, as Yields continue to rise.  NASDAQ remains lone index in Red, as investment dollars move from Tech to Financials and Energy.  The $1.9 Trillion Stimulus package passed the Senate over the weekend, so it goes back to the House.  They're pushing to wrap up before the lapse of Unemployment Benefits that end on March 14th; and hoping to start sending out Stimulus checks by the 22nd.  As previously mentioned, Yields are now at 1.60%; which we're waiting to see if it has topped out or is there more to climb?  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 9bps from Friday's close.  Not enough to change pricing from Friday's close; but we have seen a lot of volatility in the Markets; and it could have greater swings.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, March 5, 2021

Daily Market Report 3/5/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the big day, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides their Jobs data.  Without further adieu, the Non-Farm Payrolls not only hit 379k (beating estimates of 182k) for the month of February, but it revised it's January from 49k to 166k.  Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate dropped by 0.1% to 6.2%.  Average Work Week hours were trimmed a bit, from 34.9 hours to 34.6 hours per week.  Average Earnings rose by 0.2%, which matched most estimates.  Stocks were initially in the Red for most of the morning, but trades have subsided a bit since the early trades to moving into Mixed Territory (NASDAQ being lone index in Red).  Investors are moving investments out of over-valued stocks (like Tech) to under-valued stocks (like Financials and Energy) due to concerns over Inflation and Higher Yields.  Speaking of Yields, they touched at 1.62% earlier, but have calmed down to 1.56% currently.  This had a big sell on MBS earlier on, but has come back a bit; and is currently Up 6bps.  Yesterday, we had a big selloff day (closed Down 50bps), as Investors weren't agreeing with Fed Chair Powell's answers to WSJ's Q&A.  The Market wanted to hear about the Fed's approach to inflation down the road, but the Fed has stated that any spike in inflation will be temporary due to the bottleneck in supply chain; and will subside thereafter.  His comments were very dovish, which isn't what investors had in mind.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, March 4, 2021

Daily Market Report 3/4/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have a lot of data to go over today; and tomorrow is the big jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Without further adieu, let's start with the final revision of Labor Costs for Q4, which dropped from last month's 6.8% to 6.0%.  This is good news for inflation!  Also, Productivity for Q4 was better than last month's -4.8% to the final number of -4.2% (improvement by 0.6%).  The Initial Jobless Claims rose from 730k (last week's number) to 745k this week.  Durable Goods rose by 3.4% in January (unchanged from previous month); however, when you exclude Transportation, then it rose only 1.3% (down from it's 1.4% in December).  Factory Orders continue to impress, as they rose 2.6% in January.  Manufacturing and Factory work are the bulk of the economy at this time (even though, normally, the service industry provides the bulk of the jobs).  Powells speech today is having a major impact with the Markets.  The Fed Chair is not providing them with what they want, which is to extend "Twist".  This is a way for the Fed to buy long-term debt and sell short-term debt, which allows for more liquidity in the short-term.  The Fed has indicated that any current inflation is transitory due to the pandemic's effect on supply-chain; and economy show signs of improvement.  Like the Stock Market, the Bond Market, or MBS, had started to selloff during Powell's Q&A.  It has subsided some, but it's currently still down 9bps.  Many Lenders had already started their reprices for the worse, so Mortgage Rates are a bit worse than yesterday's.  Yields are skyrocketing again; and are just under 1.55% now.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Daily Market Report 3/3/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP reported only 117k new jobs for February, which was disappointing, as forecasts were looking for 177k.   The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped from 58.7 in January to 55.3 in February; which means that the Services Industry pulled back a little bit in February.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW remained the lone index in Positive Territory (currently).  Europe received some good economic data earlier today, which started a selloff of Bonds/Treasuries there and continued here in the US, as Yields are topping near 1.48%.  Investors are hopeful about Biden's announcement to accelerate the vaccinations and trying to get back to some normalcy.  As mentioned previous, there's a bit of a selloff on MBS today, as they are currently Down 28bps; so, Mortgage Rates worsened (this is mostly about an 0.125% difference in the rate).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Daily Market Report 3/2/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data to report today.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW represents the lone index in Positive Territory.  We have a few Fed speakers today, which investors will definitely watch Lael Brainerd, as she almost disregarded the concerns of last week (high yields and inflation).  They'll wait to see what she has to say this week.  MBS closed Up 14bps yesterday, and many Lenders repriced for the better yesterday.  This morning, it's currently Up 2bps; so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's close.  Yields almost appear to be heading in a sideways pattern, as it's currently sitting around 1.42%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, March 1, 2021

Daily Market Report 3/1/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ISM Manufacturing Index jumped, and matching a 2 year high, to 60.8 in February.  Also, Construction Spending rose by 1.7% in January.  Stocks took off this morning, as Yields seem to have calmed down a bit today and good economic data.  Mortgage Rates are Up a little bit, as the MBS opened about 17bps lower than Friday's close; and is currently Down about 13bps.  There's some volatility still, as it has a low of 24bps and it was up 17bps.  Yields are currently sitting at 1.44% (after it hit 1.61% last week).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, February 26, 2021

Daily Market Report 2/26/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Personal Income jumped up to 10.0% in January and the Consumer jumped up 2.4%.  Meanwhile, Inflation still shows some tameness, as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in January, while it's YoY bumped up from 1.3% to 1.5%.  However, the Core PCE (excludes food and energy), which carries more weight because it's the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, remained Unchanged at 1.5% YoY after it (too) rose 0.3% in January.  The Fed's target rate is typically 2.0% for this index; however, it indicated that it's willing to expand it to 2.5% average over time.  The Chicago PMI, which measures manufacturing in the Chicago region, dipped from 63.8 to 59.5 in February.  Lastly, the Consumer Sentiment dropped from 79.0 in January to 76.8 in February (it did improve throughout the month, as it's initial reading in February was 76.2).  Stocks are currently in Mixed Territory, as the DOW remained the lone index in Negative Territory.  The big spike in Yields is the culprit behind the Market volatility this week.  One thing about Yields is that it provides a perception of Inflation, as an increase in rates is used to slow things down to stave off inflation.  Investors were concerned that the Fed would raise the Fed Fund Rate sooner, as well as pull back on their Asset Purchases.  But Fed Chair Powell had temporarily eased those concerns during his 2 day Congressional Testimony.  However, Investors began to disregard those sentiments, as the Markets became choppy again.  While stocks enjoyed the low interest rate environment, now investors are reevaluating their stock positions that are most affected by rising rates, which the Tech Sector has been hit the hardest thus far.  The higher Yields may bring more investors back to the table for Treasuries/Bond related investments.  MBS went thru a wild rollercoaster ride yesterday, as it closed Down 94bps, which is approximately 1 point (so a No Point loan would now cost 1 point, or 1% of the loan balance).  It's still very choppy, as you may see the wicks in the candlestick chart, but it's currently Up 2bps.  Mortgage Rates are about the same after yesterday's close; however, way off from yesterday morning, as most Lenders had multiple price changes to their rate sheets yesterday (for the worse).  Yields are also really choppy, as it's currently just  under 1.52%, but it's been going back-and-forth at 1.47% range.  Hopefully, today's PCE data helped to ease some concerns over inflation.  We'll see!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.