Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/24/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Due to short week this week, we have a lot of data crammed into today.  We'll start with Building Permits, which improved (slightly) in October.  It went from 1.65 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.653 million in October.  New Home Sales had a pretty steep revision in September, going from 800k seasonally adjusted units to 742k.  In October, it was reported at 745k.  After revisions, it improved, but it's far from September's initial report.  Q3 GDP came out with it's 2nd look (final look will be in December), which moved up by 0.1%, to 2.1%.  Durable Goods Orders continued to show a negative trend, which it dropped by 0.5% in October; however, if you remove transportation, then it rose by 0.5%.  The drop in airplane orders, which are large orders, can really manipulate the numbers to look worse/better than what they really are.  Initial Jobless Claims broke below the 200k last week, as it reported 199k applied for first time benefits.  Personal Income rose 0.5% in October; while, Consumer Spending rose 1.3%.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 67.4 in November, according to the UofM Survey.  Like the CPI showed a few weeks ago, PCE shows a spike in consumer inflation for October.  The PCE jumped up 0.6% in October; while it's YoY rose from 4.4% in September to 5.0% in October.  When you exclude food & energy, then you have Core PCE (or also known as Real Inflation), which rose 0.4% in October; and it's YoY rose from 3.6% in September to 4.1% in October.  As I was working on this video, the FOMC Minutes were being released.  The Market was starting to worsen, as they were reviewing the release.  Fed Member, Mary Daly from San Francisco, had stated earlier in the morning that they Fed may taper quicker, if the inflation persists and jobs data continues to progress.  This statement may be a preview of the Minutes, and the Investors are preparing for it.  MBS were Down 11bps, but were trading approximately down 5-6 bps before the FOMC Minutes release.  Lenders had priced in worse pricing for Mortgage Rates today, but it could potentially worsen more.  Meanwhile, Yields had reached 1.69%, but subsided down to around 1.65%.  After the FOMC release, then it too, started to worsen; and it was up to 1.66% at the time of this video.  I won't be doing any videos the remainder of this week, so the next will be Monday!  Have a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving week!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/23/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 58.7 in October to 57.0 in November.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped up from 58.4 in October to 59.1 in November.  Anything above 50 in either index constitutes expansion.  The 7 year Treasury Auction went pretty well, and appears to be helping (somewhat) MBS/Treasuries.  MBS is off it's earlier low and is currently Down 9bps; however, most Lenders priced their ratesheets prior to the Auction while pricing was worse.  So, Mortgage Rates are priced a little higher this morning.  Also, Yields have been hovering around 1.66% and 1.65%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, November 22, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/22/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Home Sales rose 0.8% in October, going from 6.29 million seasonally adjusted annualized units to 6.34 million.  The big news today is the renomination of Jerome Powell for Fed Chair.  Unfortunately for us, the Market wasn't too thrilled.  The Bond/Treasury Market were more receptive to Brainard, apparently.  As a result, MBS is Down 33bps, which the poor 5 year Treasury Auction showing contributed some to the decline.  This means that Mortgage Rates worsened toward the worse levels felt last week.  Also, Yields have spiked up to 1.62%.  This will be a short week and may not see a lot of volume trading; however, there could be some volatility due to mostly Day Traders in the Market, while the Big Hedgefunds celebrate Thanksgiving.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, November 19, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/19/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There is no economic data to report today.  The Markets are responding to reports out of Austria regarding national lockdown due to higher COVID cases.  Other European Countries are keeping that option open pending how their case loads trend.  Investors are a bit jittery, as we approach winter and cold season happens.  Last thing that anybody wants is another lockdown.  Meanwhile, the ECB announced that they don't anticipate any rate hikes in 2022 and still feel that inflation is transitory.  Later today, Fed Member Clarida (whom is the #2 Fed Chief) will be speaking, so Markets could react.  MBS is benefitting from the Covid reaction, which it jumped way up over the 25 DMA when the Market opened, but it's currently off from it's earlier highs.  However, it's still Up 13 bps from yesterday's close; so, Mortgage Rates are showing a bit of improvement.  Yields pummeled all the way down to 1.53% (below it's 25 DMA).  Next week will be a shortened week, due to Thanksgiving, so trading in the Markets will be less in volume, but could see some volatility due to day time traders.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, November 18, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/18/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region spiked in November, as the Philly Fed Index jumped from 23.8 in October to 39.0 in November.  Initial Jobless Claims dropped from last week's 269k, which was revised from 267k, to 268k.  Another bright spot on the Economic Calendar is the Leading Economic Indicator, which rose 0.9% in October; this is after it's September's data was revised higher, from 0.2% to 0.7%.  Stocks are Mixed today based on the Q3 Earnings Reports that are still being released.  Investors are becoming a bit jittery regarding the potential for another  uptick in COVID cases, as we approach the winter season and people spend more time indoors.  Meanwhile, MBS is showing some continued improvement, as it's currently Up about 5bps.  This won't impact Mortgage Rates much, as Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged; however, there may be some minor improvement with the pricing.  Also, Yields are working their way down again, as they approach it's 25 DMA.  It's currently sitting just under 1.59%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/17/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped 0.7% in October, as it's September data initially reported 1.555 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.530 million.  Forecasts called for 1.576 million; however, it was reported at 1.520 million.  Shortage of Labor and Materials still seem to be the issues for Home Builders.  Yesterday, we saw surge in Home Builder Confidence, which you'll find in today's report, as Building Permits rose 4.0% in October.  It went from 1.586 million in September to 1.650 in October.  These will be future Housing Starts.  Stocks are all in Negative Territory, as Investors seem to be a bit leery about the continued push to new highs; and next week begins the Holiday season with Thanksgiving.  MBS started the morning lower, but has since steadily risen to +14bps; so, Mortgage Rates will be a little better priced today.  Also, Yields have helped by their slide down to 1.60%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/16/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales spiked up 1.7% in October.  This is one of the better numbers we've been seeing since all the Stimulus checks went out.  Industrial Production jumped up 1.6% in October.  Home Builders are more confident, as the NHIB Home Builders Index rose 3 points to 83 in November.  Lastly, Business Inventories rose 0.7% in September.  Stocks are up on the Retail data; while MBS had an adverse reaction to it.  The concern with investors is still Inflation.  If we end up having to raise rates prior to the completion of the Fed's tapering, then it won't be a good sign.  Luckily, MBS has subsided from it's earlier losses, and are now Up 3bps.  Mortgage Rates are currently more in line with the same pricing found after yesterday's Market close (or Unchanged).  Yields are still about the same (at 1.62%).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, November 15, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/15/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Empire State Index, which measures manufacturing activity in the NY region, spiked from 19.8 in October to 30.9 in November.  Meanwhile, the Markets are still reeling in last week's high inflation data, which is resulting in higher Yields.  This is concerning Investors quite a bit.  A few headline bits include a possible new Fed Chair for next term, which Biden may be making his selection this week.  Currently, it's between Powell (to be renominated) and Brainard.  Also, it appears to be progress on the Infrastructure Bill, which may come to a head, as soon as today.  I forgot to mention in the video that there will be a virtual meeting between China President Jinping and Biden later today, which they're hoping to calm some of the recent tensions that have arisen.  As for Mortgage Rates, they're continuing to rise, after the bad inflation data being reported last week.  Today, they're Down about 22bps, which translates to about an .125% to the Mortgate Rate.  Having spoken earlier about the rise in Yields, they're now about 1.62%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, November 12, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/12/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Consumer Sentiment dropped to it's lowest level since 2011, as the University of Michigan released their survey's results, as 66.8 in November.  This was a drop of 71.7 in October; and forecasts were calling for 72.4.  There appears to be a direct correlation to consumers being fed up with high prices.  Meanwhile, stocks are rebounding today, as investors try to buy on the dip.  Meanwhile, MBS was showing signs of rebounding this morning, as it started the morning just below Wednesday's close (Down 72bps), but quickly rose Up 16bps; however, it started to steadily decline just after 7am and is Down 2bps now.  Earlier Lenders probably priced in a little better and may see a price change for the worse; while the Lenders from the West Coast will most likely price their rate sheets closer to Wednesday's close.  Likewise, Yields are working inversely and now testing it's 25 DMA ceiling.  It's currently just under 1.58%. 

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/10/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today's big report was a HUGE disappointment, as CPI (consumer inflation) jumped up 0.9% in October.  It's Core CPI  (excludes food and energy) rose from 4.0% in September to 4.6% in October.  Highest in 30 years.  Initial Jobless Claims reported 267k people applied for first time unemployment benefits last week.  This is normally released on Thursday, but tomorrow is a federal holiday (Veterans Day) and the Markets will be closed (no video tomorrow).  Wholesale Inventories rose 1.4% in September.  The Markets are panicking over the high inflation data being reported today, as Stocks are well into Negative Territory; and MBS is freefalling currently (Down 45bps; however, as soon as video was complete, it's now down 65bps).  This is approximately a 0.5% cost to mortgage costs; so, a No Point loan yesterday will cost you 0.5% to obtain that same rate today.  Meanwhile, Yields are moving inversely; and now around 1.54% (after closing around 1.42% yesterday).  The Markets will be closed tomorrow; and Friday isn't expected to see much activity.  Next video will be on Friday.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/9/21

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% in October.  This index gauges inflation in the Wholesale sector.  The Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.4% in October, while it's YoY remained Unchanged at 6.8%.  Investors are watching the inflation data this week, as Stocks are in Negative Territory.  MBS had their monthly roll-over last night, so on the chart, it appears to have worsened.  However, this just means a reset in pricing and does not affect our pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Currently MBS is Up 25bps, so Mortgage Rates improve today.  Inversely, Yields have dropped a few bps this morning and sit just a hair under 1.42%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

 


Monday, November 8, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/8/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  We'll look at Inflation data later this week, with the PPI and CPI reports.  There are a few Treasury and Bond Auctions, which could theoretically influence mortgage rates (depending upon the demand).  The Markets are taking it's cue a bit from Friday's announcement around the Pfizer anti corona virus pill, as it created much optimism with Investors.  Meanwhile, we have a few Fed Members speaking today.  Fed Member Bullard spoke a bit earlier today, which he foresees the Fed raising rates at least twice in 2022; and more rapidly, if inflation persists.  MBS started the day a bit lower today  (on it's 50 DMA).  It's currently Down 9bps, which has been steadily improving over the past few moments while creating this video.  Earlier Ratesheets may indicate a little worse pricing; however, the later Ratesheets my indicate pricing as Unchanged from Fridays close (which MBS closed +41bps -solid day!).  Yields are facing similar movements (but inverse) as MBS, as they sit atop it's 50 DMA and up a few bps from Friday's close.  It's currently at 1.48%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, November 4, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/4/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Sorry, I forgot to mention in the video that there won't be a video tomorrow, as I will be out tomorrow.  As for today's economic data, there's a few items to go over.  We'll start with the Initial Jobless Claims, which is trending downward (good news) to 269k.  Also, the Continued Claims dropped off by approximately 100k from last week.  However, this isn't taking into account for the people being let go due to vax mandates.  The Challenger layoffs spiked from 17.895 million announced layoffs in September to 22.822 million in October.  This could be an indicator of the amount of people being forced out of the workforce due to vax mandates.  Unfortunately, the Media isn't reporting on this!  Lastly, we have the Q3 Labor Costs and Productivity.  Labor Costs spiked up by 8.3% for the initial Q3 number, as employers raise wages to bring back or fulfill employment positions.  However, Productivity dropped 5.0%, which is never a good sign.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Investors continue to evaluate Q3 Earnings Reports and yesterday's FOMC Announcement.  The Fed will begin tapering in November and keep the pace of reducing their purchases by $15 billion.  They tied the rate hike to job data.  Many are expecting rate hike to begin by mid-2022.  MBS rebounded from yesterday's selloff; and is back above the 25 DMA.  It is currently Up 33bps.  Mortgage Rates are much improved (compared to yesterday's close).  Also, Yields have dropped below it's 25 DMA and sitting around 1.52%, after touching around 1.60% yesterday.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/3/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP reported 571k new hires for Private Payrolls for the month of October.  This is the first of the October Jobs data this week.  Factory Orders grew by 0.2% in September (topping unchanged forecasts).  The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped up from 61.9 to 66.7 in October.  Anything above 50 for this index is expansion.  Other Services (globally, like the Caixin in China) were also showing very robust numbers for the Services industry for the month of October.  Later today is the wrap on the FOMC, which Fed Chair Powell will give his announcement.  It is highly anticipated that he will address the tapering plan; and investors are now also wanting conversations about rate hikes.  We'll look to see if he addresses the latter.  MBS started the morning higher, but that was short-lived, as it is currently Down 14bps and testing it's 25 DMA floor.  Mortgage Rates are a little higher today (about an .125% to rate).  Yields are also under pressure, as they test their 25 DMA ceiling and sitting just under 1.57%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/2/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  However, the FOMC begins today, which is the Fed's 2 day meeting, and provides their rate announcement tomorrow.  Rates are expected to remain Unchanged, but it might provide us with some insight on when they may begin raising rates.  Most are speculating by mid-2022.  Also, it is widely anticipated the Fed will announce their tapering plans tomorrow.  Tomorrow is also the first day of the October jobs data being released (ADP tomorrow, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS' Non Farm Payrolls on Friday).  Stocks continue to rise on Investors approval of the Q3 Earnings reports.  Meanwhile, MBS was able to break above the 25 DMA yesterday, and has currently risen a bit more.  It is currently Up 2bps.  MBS is currently off it's earlier high, which is showing some weakness; so, be cautious, as it might mean a trend reversal.  We have experienced negative movements with MBS when talk of tapering, even by comments last week by Bank of Canada and ECB.  Also, Yields broke below it's 25 DMA yesterday; and currently sitting at 1.54%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, November 1, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/1/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 61.1 in September to 60.8 in October.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion.  Meanwhile, stocks are still rising, as Investors value the profit making in the Q3 Earnings Reports despite the issues with labor- and supply chain issues, along with inflation.  MBS started the day lower, but is now back up toward the 25 DMA and currently Down 8bps.  This is not enough to see any Mortgage Rate change.  Yields worked similarly, as they rose above the 25 DMA and another Technical level.  They're currently at 1.59%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.