Friday, March 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a bit of data to report today.  We're still getting delayed data because of the Gov't Shutdown.  We'll start with Personal Income, which rose only 0.2% in February (forecasts called for 0.3% increase).  Consumer Spending rose only 0.1% in January (forecasts called for 0.2% increase).  Core Inflation rose only 0.1% in January, as it's YoY dropped from 2% to 1.8% -below the Fed's target rate of 2%.  New Home Sales beat expectations of 625k for February, and came in at 667k annualized units.  Manufacturing simmered a bit in Chicago region in March, as the Chicago PMI dropped from 64.7 to 58.7.  Consumer Sentiment rose from 97.8 to 98.4 in March.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory on the mostly positive data and the news of continued progress between the US and China's Trade Talks.  They will continue their talks next week in the US.  MBS is down 8bps, so coupled with yesterday's down day, Mortgage Rates will be slightly worse today.  Yields have steadily climbed up to 2.42%.

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Thursday, March 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped a little further last week, which only 211k applied for Unemployment.  Last week, it was reported at 216k, and forecasts for today's report called for 222k.  The final revision for the GDP for Q4 in 2018 was revised lower, from 2.6% to 2.2%.  Indicating the economy is slowing down a bit.  Pending Home Sales dropped 1.0% from January to February, as the Midwest dealt with severe cold and snowstorms.  Stocks are trading in Positvie Territory this morning.  So far, there's no clear indication to which path Brexit will go.  Also, more progress has been made on the US and China Trade Talks.  MBS are Unchanged from yesterday, so Mortgage Rates will also be Unchanged.  Yields rose a little to 2.39%.

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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are modestly Up this morning.  Investors continue to monitor the Brexit news, as we approach the new deadline in about 2 weeks.  Also, adding fuel is the dropping Yields, which the 3 month inverted on the 10 year.  We're coming closer between the 2 year and 10 year.  When the Yields invert, then it's a sign of a recession ahead (approximately 18-24 months).  This on top of the Brexit, is starting to cause a flight to safety, so more funds are funneling from Equities (stocks) and into Bonds/MBS.  MBS is now Up 13bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates will improve today.  Yields are now down to 2.38%.

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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few data to report today on the Economic Calendar.  The Housing Starts dropped from 1.273 million annualized units to 1.162 million annualized units in February.  Also, Building Permits dropped from 1.317 million annualized units to 1.296 million annualized units in February.  This is the Home Builder's response to lower prospective Buyer traffic and a slowing economy.  The Case-Shiller Home Price Index dropped from 4.6% to 4.3% in January; showing that home prices continue to rise, but at a much slower pace than we've experienced in the past few years.  Consumer Confidence dropped, as well, in March, as it dropped from 131.4 to 124.1.  This is indicative of what the Consumer has been experiencing over the past few months, with a volatile stock market, partial gov't shutdown and lower Jobs numbers.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's losses and well into Positive Territory.  Top news for Stocks lies with the Brexit, continued negotiations between US/China and a few Fed Members will be speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.43%.

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Monday, March 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No data to report on the Economic Calendar to report today, but the rest of the week there will be something to report.  Stocks started the morning in the Red; as globally, it was mostly in the Red.  DOW and S&P have just recently breached to a Positive stance.  We'll see if it holds.  There are several Fed Speakers out today, which could have an effect on the Market.  The Mueller Report was released exonerating the President from any collusion charges.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's close.  Yields are now down to 2.42%.

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Friday, March 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing flash PMI dipped from 53 to 52.5 in March.  It's counter-part, Markit Services flash PMI also dipped from 56 to 54.8 in March.  Existing Home Sales had a nice boost in February, as it jumped up to 5.51 million annualized units, compared to 4.93 million annualized units in January.  Wholesale Inventories rose 1.2% in January.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on poor economic data out of Europe, as it reminds Investors that the economy is slowing.  Also, President Trump was interviewed this morning on one of the news channels and reiterated that an Agreement is close with China and may continue to keep Tariffs in place for an extended period, even after Agreement is reached to ensure compliance by China.  MBS is currently Up 20bps, which Mortgage Rates improve.  Yields have slid down to 2.45%.

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Thursday, March 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rebounded a bit from last week's numbers, going from 230k to 221k.  Obviously, this is data we're watching to see if it continues to rise, as it will indicate a recession in the near future.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region rebounded quite nicely in March, as it came back from -4.1 to +13.7.  Also, Leading Indicators picked up 0.2% in February, which indicates economy improving.  Stocks are Up on the Fed's very dovish announcement yesterday, as they indicated there will not be any rate hikes in 2019 and the Balance Sheet reduction will end in September.  Also, they see the economy slowing, as well as, inflation.  President Trump tweeted that he may keep the Tariffs in place even after an Agreement has been made with China.  This might be fuel to the fire with negotiations.  It was reported that more meetings have been scheduled between the Upper level Negotiators in the coming weeks.  MBS is Unchanged after yesterday's Rally, which led Lenders to re-price during the day for better Mortgage Rates.  Yields have really slipped.  It was reported earlier this week that Yields were as high as 2.62%, which they're now at 2.52%.

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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Fed wraps up their 2 day meeting today, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give his announcement around 11:15 am PST.  Today's announement is expected to go similar to it's previous announcement; and Investors will seek clues on the Fed's forecasts and Balance Sheet unwind.  Stocks are Down this morning ahead of this announcement.  The US and China Trade Talks continue, as there was a report that China was pushing back on some of the US Demands.  We're at the nitty gritty aspects of the final details, so these objections will be commonplace at this stage of negotiations.  It's just a matter of time when they both have a final agreement.  MBS is Up 8bps, but not enough to make any changes with the Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged.  Yields have slipped a little to 2.60%.

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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders were up only 0.1% in January, off from it's forecast of 0.4%, and stronger hints of a slowing economy.  Stocks are Up this morning, as the Fed begins it's 2 day meeting today.  Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will give his announcement.  It's expected to be very similar to January's announcement.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday, so Mortgage Rates are also Unchanged.  Yields have risen a little bit to 2.62% now.

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Monday, March 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Home Builders Index, which gauges the confidence level with Home Builders, remained Unchanged from previous month in March.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as Investors keep an eye on the Main Headlines over the past week: Federal Authorities investigating the Boeing 737 Max planes; reports have US/China Summit possibly being bumped to June now; and the FOMC will begin it's 2 day meeting tomorrow, as Fed Chief Powell gives his announcement on Wednesday.  MBS is currently down 3bps, so Mortgage Rate remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields have climbed Up to 2.60%.

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Friday, March 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing seems to be weakening, as we have 3 data points to view today.  Starting with the Empire State Index (Manufacturing in the NY region) dropped from 8.8 to 3.7 in March, as most forecasts had it rising to approximately 10.  Industrial Production rose only 0.1% in February, as most forecasts called for 0.4% increase.  The Capacity Utilization dropped from 78.3% to 78.2% in February.  Again, forecasts called for a higher number (78.5%).  However, some better news, is Job Openings increased in January from 7.5 million to 7.6 million.  Also, Consumer Sentiment rose from 93.8 to 97.8 in March.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory (DOW is lone index in Negative Territory) based on Economic Data and comments from Chinese and US Officials over the Trade Talk.  MBS is Up 13bps, which will provide Mortgage Rates a little boost in pricing today.  Yields have fallen a bit this morning, as they are now down to 2.58%.

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Thursday, March 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rose 6k from last week's number to 229k.  New Home Sales came in at 607k annualized units for the month of January.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on Geo-Political News, as more disappointing industrial output data comes out of China.  Also, there seems to be a delay in the US/China Trade Talks, which have Investors a bit nervous.  There is another Brexit vote today, which will be upon whether they delay the exit on the 29th or continue as on without a Trade Agreement with the EU.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday, as Mortgage Rates remain the same.  Yields have come up to 2.62%.

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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few items on the Economic Calendar today.  We'll start with the Durable Goods Orders for January, which rose 0.4% on forecasts of it dropping 0.1%.  The Core Capital Goods Orders broke it's pattern of declines over the past few months and rose 0.8% in January.  This index gauges Businesses reinvesting in their own business.  PPI rose only 0.1% in February.  This is the inflation data from the Wholesale sector.  Construction Spending rose 1.3% in January.  Stocks are trading in positive territory this morning on the economic data, as they watch the Geo-Political news on the Brexit and Boeing scenario.  MBS is down 3bps so far this morning, but based on the late rally in the Market yesterday, Lenders will be more inclined to provide better pricing on their Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields have continued their decline, and currently sit at 2.61%.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Confidence with Small Business Owners gained some strength in February, as the NFIB Small Business Index climbed from 101.2 to 101.7.  Consumer Inflation dropped a smidge in February.  Consumer Price Index went up 0.2%, while it's YoY dropped from 1.6% to 1.5%.  When you remove food and energy, then you have the Core CPI, which is what the Fed reviews more closely.  The Core CPI rose only 0.1% in February, and it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 2.1%.  Stocks are Up again this morning, as the DOW again is still being weighed lower due to Boeings' stock loss.  There is a Brexit Vote tonite by the UK Parliament after PM Theresa May gained some concessions from the EU.  Of course the Markets will be watching this very closely, as we are approaching the finish line for their March 29 deadline.  MBS is Up only 0.2%, as Mortgage Rates continue to remain Unchanged.  Yields have slid a bit further to 2.63%.

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Monday, March 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales rebounded a bit in January, moving up 0.2%.  Retail Sales, which excludes Autos, enjoyed more improvement, which went up 0.9%.  These improvements were much needed after a very dismal December, which was the worst data in the last 10 years.  Business Inventories rose 0.6% in December.  Stocks are Up this morning on the data, even though the DOW is being weighed down abit by it's biggest component recipient, Boeing, after another Max 8 crashed in Ethiopa (2nd in past 6 months).  Our thoughts and prayers goes out those families affected by the crash.  MBS is down only  3bps so far this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are holding in the 2.64% range currently.

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Friday, March 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the BIG Day for Jobs Data!  The Non-Farm Payroll surprised everyone with 20k new Jobs in February, whereas they were expecting it around 175k.  A closer look at this report shows that the weakness came from the  Hospitality and Construction Sectors, which can be heavily influenced by weather.  If you remember correctly, we had some pretty extreme cold weather in February (even MN had -65 degrees at one point).  So, this could be an anomaly, which we'll continue to monitor.  Also, keep in mind we had a HUGE spike in January, whereas the Jobs came in at 311k, when we were expecting around 175k.  We're still at a good point in Jobs, as we see the Unemployment Rate drop from 4% in January to 3.8% in February.  Also, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% in February, which is the highest increase since 2009.  Housing Starts beat expectations in January at 1.230 million annualized units; which is the same for Building Permits (future Housing Starts), as it beat expectations to 1.345 annualized units.  Stocks are down on the disappointing Jobs data, but also on news that China's exports dropped 20% in February.  This is along the line of signs pointing toward a Global Economic Slowdown.  MBS is near unchanged (-2bps), but had a late rally yesterday (closing Up 19bps), so most Lenders may price their Mortgage Rates better today.  Yields are near Unchanged, but slightly up by means of rounding up to 2.75% (vs rounding down to 2.64% at yesterday's close).

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Thursday, March 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Big Jobs Data will be released tomorrow, but today, we have the Weekly Jobless Claims.  The Weekly Jobless Claims improved a little bit, going from 226k the previous week to 223k last week.  Forecasts called for 225k.  Productivity for the 4th Qtr also, improved slightly.  It's 3rd Qtr was up 1.8%, while 4th Qtr grew at 1.9%.  Unit Labor Costs also grew at 2.0%, up from from the 1.6% in the 3rd Qtr.  Stocks are down as news of the ECB reducing their 2019 forecasts for the EC from 1.7% to 1.1% and trying their own stimulus for the EC.  This is a day after the Fed Beige Book showed some slower growth in the US yesterday.  MBS is currently Up 9bps, which based on yesterday's Market improvement and today's, then some Lenders may price Mortgage Rates a bit better today.  Yields have continued their slide, all the way down to 2.65% now.

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Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP, the first of the Jobs data this week, came in a little lower than forecasts for February.  It came in at 183k new jobs in the Private Sector, while forecasts called for 187,500.  Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released.  Stocks are down, as they're awaiting some catalyst to move it in one direction or another.  There will be a few Fed Members speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 2bps.  Based on yesterday's rally, some Lenders may price their Mortgage Rates a bit better today; at worst, they're Unchanged.  Yields had slid down to 2.70%.

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Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have mixed data for the Service Industries.  The Markit Services PMI went from 56.2 to 56.0 in February; whereas, the ISM Non-Manufacturing went from 56.7% to 59.7%.  New Home Sales improved from 599k annualized units sold in November to 621k annualized units sold in December.  This was better than the 600k forecast.  Stocks are down on news that China lowered their economic growth to the range of 6.0% to 6.5%.  They announced a few additional stimulus measures to spike it's economy.  We have a few Fed Members speaking today, which Fed Member Rosengren mentioned that the concern for the US economy overheating has changed on recent data.  They expect it to moderately drop this year.  MBS is currently down 6bps, which leave Mortgage Rates unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields have slid a little to 2.74%.

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Monday, March 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: They released the Construction Spending for December, which is one of the delayed reports due to the Gov't Shutdown.  It dropped 0.6% on forecasts of it going up 0.3%.  Stocks started the day in Positive Territory on news of the US/China Trade Talks is near completion; however, it just recently turned to Negative Territory.  MBS is up 6bps, which Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Also, Yields remain Unchanged at 2.75%.

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Friday, March 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a lot of data on the Economic Calendar today.  We're still facing delays on much of the data due to the past Gov't Shutdown.  Personal Income rose 1.0% in December; however, Consumer Spending dropped 0.5%.  PCE rose only 0.1% in December, while it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  The Core Inflation rose 0.2%, while it's YoY remained at 1.9%.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation and the Core is within it's 2.0% Target Rate.  Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.7 to 53.0 in February, while the ISM Manufacturing dropped from 56.6% to 54.2%.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 95.5 to 93.8 in February.  Stocks started the morning off very hot, but have since cooled off and well off it's earlier highs.  Reports that the US/China Trade Agreement may be completed within the next week or two is what heated up the Market.  MBS is down 8bps this morning, and broke below it's 25- & 50 DMA while testing it's Fibonacci floor at 101.856.  Some Lenders may price Mortgage Rates a little higher today.  We're watching to see if MBS can remain above the Fibonacci level, as it will begin the trend for Mortgage Rates to rise.  Yields are now up to 2.74% and are now above it's 25- & 50 DMA, which is applying the pressure to MBS.

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