Friday, January 21, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/21/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Leading Economic Indicator Index rose 0.8% in December, after it's November's number was revised from 1.1% lower to 0.7%.  Next week will provide plenty of data, such as Housing data, GDP and Consumer Inflation (with the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation -PCE).  Also, Investors will be waiting on the FOMC to finish on Wednesday and listen for any new information on the Fed's tightening policy, including it's reduction of it's Balance sheet.  Meanwhile, Q4 Corporate Earnings are being released and it seems like they're underperforming, as stocks not only are declining for today, but the week.  A few indices are approaching correction territory.  MBS is currently Up between 16-19bps, which will be enough for Lenders to come out with better pricing for their Mortgage Rates.  Yields broke below it's Technical floor and testing a new Technical floor.  It's currently sitting just under 1.76%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, January 20, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/20/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Philly Fed Index rose from 15.4 in December to 23.2 in January. This index gauges the business/manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  This is good news based on the contraction in the NY region that was released earlier this week.  Jobless Claims spiked to 286k last week, which should not be a surprise, as this is rather common at this time of year.  This is due to the seasonal workers (from the Holidays) being let go from their jobs.  Lastly, the Existing Home Sales dropped 4.6% in December, as it went from 6.48 seasonally adjusted annualized units in November to 6.18 million in December.  Stocks are Up today as Yields seem to be showing some improvement and more companies release their Q4 Earnings Reports.  We'll touch on Yields shortly!  Meanwhile, MBS began the day much higher, like it did yesterday, but has subsided a bit since then.  We're still Up about 17bps (off from earlier highs in the 30bps range).  This is helping Mortgage Rates today with some improvement.  Also, Yields have slid from it's 1.87% range to 1.83% range.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/19/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The MBA Mortgage Loan Activity Report released their data (which comes out every Wednesday) and indicated that Home Buyers jumped this past week, as Mortgage Rates continue to rise.  Seems like rising Mortgage Rates are incentivizing Home Buyers to get off the fence; however, they're disincentivizing refinances, as we saw a drop week-over-week.  Housing Starts rose from 1.678 million seasonally adjusted annualized units in November to 1.702 million in December.  A 1.4% rise month-over-month.  Also, Building Permits (future Housing Start) rose 9.1%, which went from 1.717 million seasonally adjusted annualized units in November to 1.873 million in December.  It will be interesting to see it's January's numbers, as we found out yesterday that there was a slight drop with the Home Builders confidence for January.  Something to watch!  Meanwhile, stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as several large corporations released their Q4 Corporate Earnings Reports, and it didn't go well for many (especially with those on the DOW).  The DOW is the lone index currently in Negative territory today.  The Fed members are in quiet mode, as they approach their FOMC next week.  This has been part of the issue, as investors take it upon themselves with the appearance of more aggressive Fed policy; and they price this into the Markets.  Meanwhile, MBS seemed to have regained some of yesterday's losses; and are Up 38bps.  So, we're having a better day with Mortgage Rates today (compared with yesterday's close).  The same for Yields, as they slid down to just under 1.83% (after touching off the 1.87% range).  Expect some ebbs and flows (Market volatility) to continue, as they Markets adjust to the new normal!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/18/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Empire State Index, which measures manufacturing around the NY region, posted a -0.7 for January, which is the first time in awhile that we've seen any contraction in manufacturing in the NY region since the beginning of the lockdowns during the Pandemic (March of 2020).  Meanwhile, higher interest rates are concerning Home Builders' Confidence, as the NAHB Home Builder Index dropped from 84 in December to 83 in January.  Meanwhile, both Stocks and Bonds are selling off!  NASDAQ is being highly affected by the rise in Yields due to it's growth stocks losing it's higher profits due to higher Yields.  An M&A was announced, which Microsoft is looking to buy Activision Blizzard to create 3rd largest Gaming company.  And Q4 Corporate Earnings reports are being released, which Goldman Sachs announced today a loss for Q4.  Meanwhile, MBS continues it's decline, which it's currently Down 42bps, as many Lenders continue to raise Mortgage Rates.  Also, Yields have jumped up above another Technical level and is just under 1.85%.  Unfortunately, we're not seeing any signs of a slow down.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, January 14, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/14/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales for December stunk!  it dropped by 1.9%; and when you exclude Auto, then it dropped further, Down 2.3%.  Also, Capacity Utilization dropped from 76.8% in November to 76.5% in December, along with Industrial Production dropping 0.1% in December.  Even Consumer Sentiment dropped in January, from 70.6 in December to 68.8 for January.  However, Business Inventories rose 1.3% in November.  Both Stocks and Bonds are losing in this Market today!  The bad data is usually good for Bonds; however, today, the sentiment is Uncertain, which is why we have been seeing wide swings in the Market.  Take yesterday for an example, which we kept swinging back-and-forth between positive and negative, until it closed Up 8bps.  Today, it was down about 17bps (so it didn't start off too well), then it dropped Down 33bps very abruptly.  Mortgage Rates are higher based on the MBS chart.  Yields are showing some volatility too!  After testing the floor at 1.70%, then it abruptly bounced higher and is testing the 1.77% ceiling again.  This is where we're currently sitting.  Hopefully, it holds and brings us back down below 1.70%, so we can correct itself after last week's quick change; as Yields sit in an oversold position.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, January 13, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/13/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Jobless Claims rose to 230k last week, as we will most likely see a spike this month due to the holiday seasonal workers being let go.  Meanwhile, we also received inflation data on the Wholesale sector, which doesn't always get a lot of respect, as their costs don't always get pushed over to the Consumer.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in December, after it's November number was revised higher (from 0.8% to 1.0%).  The Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.5% in December; and it's November number was revised from 0.7% to 0.9%.  It's YoY rose from 7.9% to 8.3%.  As we saw yesterday with the CPI report, these numbers are the highest on record since 1982.  The Fed has talked about their concern with inflation and will fight it aggressively, which is helping to ease the Market's concerns; however, their is a lot of sentiment that the Fed it behind on their action taking.  Lastly, the 30 Year Bond Auction went ok.  MBS is going thru a lot of volatility.  During the video, it was quickly changing from +6bps to -5bps; going back and forth.  There is a lot of uncertainty with the Markets; and currently MBS is in an Oversold position after it's quick selloff last week.  Meanwhile, Yields are Down to 1.72%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/12/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is a big day for the economic calendar, which is providing us with consumer inflation data by CPI for the month of December.  The CPI reported that it rose 0.5% and it's YoY rose from 6.8% in November to 7.0% in December.  This is the highest reading since 1982.  When you strip out food and energy, then you have the Core CPI.  This index is more useful, as it removes 2 uncontrolled variables.  It jumped up 0.6% in December, while it's YoY rose from 4.9% to 5.5%.  This report will have the greatest impact with the Markets this week.  So far, the Markets are reacting fairly good, as it seems that it came in within forecasts and the Market has already priced it in.  We have a 10yr Treasury Auction coming up shortly, which can play a role with the Markets too, so stay tuned!  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 14 bps, which means that Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday's pricing.  Also, they went thru a roll-over, which means that there was a reset in MBS pricing, as they begin February's packaging of Mortgage bundles.  This does not impact Mortgage Rates or their pricing, but it does look a little funny on the graph when you view it.  Lastly, the Yields have come down a bit to 1.72%.  If we can achieve a little more push under it's Technical floor of 1.70%, then we may see some more improvement for Mortgage Rates, which would lead to a bit of a correction from last week's big sell off.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/11/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Investors were watching the renomination of Jerome Powell to Fed Chair today.  The Fed Chair indicated that the Fed has not yet discussed how they will reduce the Balance sheet; and indicated that they may not discuss for another 3-4 meetings.  But there are a few Fed Members out there whom have indicated they'd like to see the Balance sheet aggressively reduced; which means the Fed may even sell their holdings (along with not reinvesting its holdings that have matured).  This could be bad for bonds, as it would greatly reduce the demand in the Market and further pushing up rates.  Both Stock and MBS Markets were in the Red prior to the Renomination, but have since improved to Positive Territory.  MBS are now Up 8bps.  Mortgage Rates are currently about the same as yesterday's close.  We're hoping to find some type of floor for MBS, as Yields seems to have found a ceiling, which has held over the past 3 trading days (about 1.77%).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, January 10, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/10/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We only have Wholesale Inventories, which doesn't carry much weight with the Markets released today from the Economic Calendar.  It was reported that Wholesale Inventories rose 1.4% in November.  However, this week will provide us with some inflation data (CPI and PPI) and Retail Sales, which will move Markets with their release.  Currently, there is talk that the Fed will raise rates 4 times this year, which is higher than the Fed's Dot Plot and the sentiment that the Fed will be more aggressive with their Balance sheet reduction.  This has set off the big push last week with MBS, which we saw Mortgage Rates rise.  It has continued today, as the Market was Down quite a bit, as they initially competed with Corporate Bonds; and when the European Markets closed,  then MBS found some buyers.  MBS is currently Down about 23bps.  Mortgage Rates are higher than Friday's close.  The one thing helping us is the Technical level that seems to be holding against Yields.  Yields are currently up against the Technical level at 1.78%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, January 7, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/7/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Non-Farm Payrolls reported only 199k new jobs for December, far off the 400k forecasts; and much differently than the 807k that the ADP reported on Wednesday.  Even with the November revision from 210k on the initial report to 249k, it's still not enough.  However, the Unemployment Rate did drop from 4.2% in November to 3.9% for December.  The Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.6% in December while Average Hourly Workweek remained Unchanged (from a downward revision in November) at 34.7 hours per week.  This would normally be good news for MBS, but we're still experiencing the Investors reaction to the Fed's Minutes that were released on Wednesday, which brought up the topic of the Fed reducing their Balancesheet thru allowing the maturation of the Bonds/Treasuries and not reinvesting it back into more Bonds/Treasuries.  This latter part is not good for MBS/Treasuries -meaning it's pool of buyers has shrunk!  We've been seeing Mortgage Rates rise this entire week and haven't seen any end insight yet.  Today, we're currently Down 30bps, but we're off our earlier lows (close to being down 60bps).  Mortgage Rates continue to worsen!  Meanwhile, Yields had spiked to 1.80%, but are now currently back under a tough Technical Ceiling at 1.77%.  We'll see if this Technical Ceiling can put a hold on the freefall that we've been experiencing this week.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, January 6, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/6/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose to 207k people applying for first time benefits last week.  The Challenger Layoff (announced layoffs) jumped up from 14.875 million in November to 19.052 in December.  Lastly, the Continued Claims rose from 1.718 million in last week's report to 1.754 million in this week's report.  Tomorrow will be Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which can have a big impact with the Markets tomorrow.  There are a few more data to report, which includes Factory Orders increasing to 1.6% MoM in November; and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping from 69.1 in November to 62.0 in December.  MBS is still falling today, as it's been all week!!!  It had appeared that we were at our caps and seemed to show some weakness; however, it found renewed energy to break those caps and it's downward trajectory.  We're currently at the lowest levels for MBS in nearly 2 years since just before the beginning of the pandemic.  We're currently Down about 17bps, as Mortgage Rates continue to deteriorate!  Treasuries are now Up to 1.73%.  They've exceeded their October and November caps; and appear to be on the way to making new caps (further eroding Mortgage Rates).  Right now, it doesn't appear to show any momentum shift or end.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/5/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP released their data for Private Payrolls for the month of December today, which came in very HOT!!!!  It is being reported that 807k Private Payrolls were created in December, which is about twice as much as forecasted.  This is the first of the jobs data this week.  This hot number pushed MBS further down on the graph; and received more of a push when the Fed Minutes released.  The sentiment for hawkish comments in the Minutes proved correct, as Investors will be watching the Fed fight off inflation and raise rates this year!  MBS initially came down on the ADP news about 16-20bps; and then dropped another 20 bps after the Fed Minutes were released.  So, now they're Down about 41bps.  Mortgage Rates worsened today!  Yields are pushing up against a Technical Ceiling today, as it sits just under 1.70%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, January 4, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/4/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing slowed a bit in December, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped from 61.1% in November to 58.7% in December.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion or growth.  This week, we'll get Jobs data.  Check out the video to see what the Labor Dept reported today regarding the Quits rate.  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Down 6bps; however, it was down around 14bps when Lenders rolled out their ratesheets, so Mortgage Rates will tend to be a little higher today.  The good news is we've seemed to be hitting a benchmark for a possible recovery.  We could possibly see the Markets improve and get us back closer to the 25- and 50 DMA; which would be slightly better pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Also, Yields spiked to just under 1.66%.  The last time we reached this level was in November (and once in October), which Yields then reversed couse.  This might offer some instant relief within the next few days!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, January 3, 2022

Daily Market Report 1/3/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Construction Spending rose 0.4% in November; which is the only economic data being reported today.  This week will host the Jobs data, which will be the most relevant data to be reported this week; however, there will be some competition on the release of the FOMC Minutes, as Investors will review for any insight into the Fed's plans for 2022, which may  or may not have been exposed during their FOMC a few weeks back.  Meanwhile, stocks are back; and MBS are Down 45bps, as a result!  Mortgage Rates worsened on the Market movements.  Also, Yields have spiked to just under 1.62%, which is the highest we've been since Novmber.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.