Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/29/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Q1 GDP released it's final revision, which dropped another .1% from the previous revision; and the final is a drop of 1.6% for Q1.  MBS is Up today, which it was around 17bps in the beginning of the video, then it jumped up to 25bps.  If this continues, then we could see more price improvements; but overall, Mortgage Rates improved from yesterday.  Speaking of yesterday, it rebounded late in the day to closing up 3bps, after being in negative territory all day.  Improved inflation data out of Germany started a little rally with Euro Bonds, which trickled over to the US.  Sentiment is feeling optimistic ahead of the PCE release tomorrow; however, the CPI sorely disappointed about 2 weeks ago.  This report will have greater impact, as it's the Fed's favorites gauge for consumer inflation.  Meanwhile, many of the global central bankers are speaking at a Forum (including Powell from US and Lagarde from the EU) have the Markets in a better mood too, as they discuss how they're handling the global inflation.  Yields have slid all the way down to 3.11% and coming closer to it's 25 DMA again.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/28/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Case Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), which measures home prices in the 20 largest metros in US, rose 1.8% in April while it's YoY rose to 21.2% (after March lower revision from 21.2% to 21.1%).  The FHFA HPI, which follows conforming loans, rose 1.6% in April while it's YoY dipped to 18.8% (from 19.1%).  Lastly, the Consumer Confidence continues to drop, as it dipped all the way to 98.7 in June.  This is important because if Consumers aren't feeling good about the economy, then they will stop buying, which in turn helps the economy to continue to move along; but the high inflation (namely food and energy) are eating away at many peoples' ability to buy any of the extras in their life (and thus not feeling good about it).  Stocks started up earlier on news from China on more loosening of COVID restriction; however, that changed after the US data were released.  NY Fed Williams noted that he feels the economy will slowdown, but won't go to recession.  However, there are some economists already stating that we may already be in a recession; and many more are concerned with those very prospects possibly happening.  MBS started lower today, but seemed to maintain between -8 and -11bps for mid-day; and toward end of the day has slightly improved to -5bps.  We may not see any changes with Mortgage Rates today, but there may be some changes with the pricing.  The 3.20% seem to be holding the Yields and is currently just under 3.19%.  Remember, the  PCE report will be released on Thursday.  The CPI report that was released a few weeks ago have a severely negative effect with the Markets.  The PCE carries a bit more weight, as it's the Fed's favorite gauge for Consumer inflation.  So, be prepared ahead of time!

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, June 27, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/27/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Durable Goods Orders rose 0.7% in May, exceeding expectations of 0.1%.  Pending Home Sales broke it streak of declines in May, as it rose by 0.7% to 99.9k annualized units.  There are a number of important data to watch this week, but none more important than Thursday's PCE release.  PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, which carries a bit more weight than the CPI, which the Markets reacted quite negatively a few weeks ago with it's release.  Both Markets are Down today, as MBS started the morning down around 30bps, then it subsided, but when the poor auction results were released around 10am PST for the 5 year Treasury, then it dropped back down toward the lows of the day (about -30bps), as Mortgage Rates worsen by approximately .125% to the rate.  Yields are testing a 3.17% ceiling, as they're currently just under 3.20%, which is another ceiling.  Let's hope this holds!

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 24, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/24/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  New Homes Sales beat expectations for May, as it jumped up 10.7% to 696k seasonally adjusted units.  However, Consumer Sentiment dipped down to 50.0 in June.  A few bits that we don't normally look at, but Fed Chair Powell made a comment about it, which raised it's importance this week.  The comment was regarding the Consumer Sentiment toward inflation, or outlook of inflation over a 1 year and 5 year period.  Both were recently lower in June, compared to May's outlook.  The 1 year went from 5.4% to 5.3%; and the 5 year went from 3.3% to 3.1%.  This helped to ease concerns for many investors, as Stocks improved yesterday and have continued this trend today.  As a result, money has flowed over to Equities from Bonds.  Yesterday, MBS was up 77bps, and closed only up 25bps.  Pricing for Mortgage Rates improved yesterday (from Wednesday's ratesheet), but did lose some of the better pricing, as the Market deteriorated.  Today, MBS is currently Down about 17bps, so again Mortgage Rates worsened (compared to yesterday's close).  Meanwhile, Yields spiked upwards to just under 3.13%.  Yesterday, it was down to around 3.03%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 23, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/23/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The weekly Initial Jobless Claims dipped to 229k last week, after last week's report was revised higher, from 229k to 231k.  Also, there was a slight increase to the Continuing Claims from last week.  The Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services) for the month of June, which anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 53.4 in May to 51.6 in June; and the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.0 in May to 52.4 in June.  Fed Chair Powell wraps up his 2 day testimony before the House Committee today.  Investors continue to be concerned that the hawkish Fed policy will force the economy into a recession.  There have been recent signs that the economy may not be as strong as the Fed has been stating.  And the Investors recognize this.  Meanwhile, MBS received a boost early on after poor PMI data from Europe sparked some Bond buying in Europe, which trickled over to the US.  We're currently down from earlier highs (over the past hour), which was up to 77bps; however, while I was doing this video, we were ranging between Up 33bps to 50bps.  Overall, pricing for Mortgage Rates are doing better than yesterday, which closed up 45bps.  We're getting closer to getting back to the 25 DMA in both the MBS and Yields.  Yields dropped down to just under 3.05%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/22/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no notable items on the Economic Calendar today, but there was some positive from the MBA's Mortgage Loan Activity, which reported an increase of Mortgage Loan Origination with Purchase Transactions.  Fed Chair Powell begins his 2 day Congressional Testimony today.  His statements are pretty much the same.  He is talking very hawkish, but also trying to assure the Markets that the economy is doing well and it can handle higher rates.  Meanwhile, Investors are still concerned over the possibility of an upcoming recession due to the Fed Policy Path.  Stocks are down today, as the Money is flowing back into the Bond Market, as a Flight to Safety.  The price of oil has recently subsided dramatically.  It was around $122/barrel about a week ago and now it's down to about $106/barrel today.  Part of this is chatter with the Whitehouse regarding the possibility of suspending the federal gas tax for 3 months and encouraging state level to do so, as well.  MBS closed yesterday in almost Unchanged levels (down 3bps) after being deeper in the red for most of the day.  Today, it's Up about 48bps (off a little from earlier highs); so, Morgage Rates have improved today.  Also, Yields dropped a bit too, as it's sitting around 3.16%.  It closed yesterday at 3.28%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/21/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Home Sales dipped 3.4% in May to 5.41 million seasonally adjusted units.  There's not a lot of data being released this week on the Economic Calendar, so most impact will come from headline/geopolitical news or investor sentiment.  Stocks are Up today, as investment dollars continued to flow from Bonds to Equities.  MBS started the morning down much lower and is currently Down 16bps, as Lender ratesheets have worsened since Friday's Market close.  Yields have shot up to just under 3.30% today.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 17, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/17/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production only increased by 0.2% in May, below forecast of 0.4%.  Also, Leading Indicators contracted by 0.4% in May, which sets off 2 months in a row with contraction.  Stocks are Up today, as Investors are buying on the dip; and money is flowing out of Bonds, as a result.  Investors are trying to acclimate to a new environment, which easy money will be gone; and Fed is being aggressive with their attempts to reduce Inflation back down to 2% level.  Meanwhile, mixed data shows that maybe economy might head into a recession.  As a result, we're currently seeing MBS Down 25bps, after seesawing earlier on.  This means that Mortgage Rates worsened a little bit in comparisons to those being quoted after the Market's close yesterday.  Yesterday, the Market ended up closing Up 5bps, after trading in Negative territory for most of day.  Yields slid quite a bit yesterday, as they're currently hanging around the 3.24% level today.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 16, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/16/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped by 14.4% in May, while Building Permits dropped by 7.0%.  The Philly Fed Index, which measures manufacturing in the Philadelphia area, dropped to -3.3, which is contraction.  This is the second manufacturing index to report contraction this week (the other is for the NY area).  The Initial Jobless Claims reported 229k applying for benefits last week.  We're starting to see potential for uptick in job losses, so we'll need to monitor this, as well as, manufacturing.  The BoE reported a .25% rate hike today, which was expected; but, the Swiss National Bank reported a 0.5% rate hike, which surprised the Markets.  Both Stocks and MBS are down today.  MBS started the morning down much lower, based on the actions of the European Central Banks; however, they have improved from early trade.  MBS is currently Down 39bps, so Mortgage Rates will come in a little worse compared to our rate sheets after close yesterday (which closed Up 131bps).  Pricing is almost to the opening of Monday's trading, but still well off from last week's positioning. Yields are similar to yesterday's positioning, at 3.33%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.




Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/15/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are a few items on the Economic Calendar today, but nothing is having any more impact than the FOMC Announcement.  But, we'll start with Retail Sales, which dropped by 0.3% in May.  Empire State Index, which gauges manufacturing activity in the NY region, contracted again in June to the tune of 1.2.  The NAHB Home Builders Index dropped from 69  in May to 67 in June.  This index measures the confidence level for Home Builders, whom are stressing over the higher mortgage rates.  So, now is what we've all been waiting on.... The FOMC Announcement!   The Fed announced a 0.75% (in lieu of the originally planned 0.5%) rate hike, bringing the Fed Funds to 1.75%.  The Fed Dot Plot indicated many more hikes for this year, which it jumped from previous estimate of 1.9% to 3.4%.  The Fed is aiming well above the Neutral level, which is between 2.0 - 2.5% range, in order to drive down inflation.  Earlier in the day, there was a surprise meeting by the ECB, which had the Markets attention.  Both of these occurrences moved the Markets back and forth.  MBS didn't initially do well after the release of the Fed's statement, but it drastically improved while Fed Chair Powell gave his press speech.  It's been hovering between 86-106bps, as yesterday's losses have been made up today.  Mortgage Rates improved and more inline with Monday's close.  Yields have subsided some, down to 3.33%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/14/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation with the wholesale sector, rose 0.8% in May.  The Core PPI, which excludes food & energy, rose by 0.5% in May, as it's YoY dropped from 8.6% in April to 8.3% in May.  This index doesn't always get a lot of respect because many times those costs don't always get passed onto the Consumer; however, in today's high inflation environment, it's receiving more respect.  The Fed begins their 2 day meeting (FOMC) today, which they'll provide their Announcement tomorrow (around 11:15 am PST).  The Markets raised their odd of the Fed increasing their announce rate hike from a 0.5% to 0.75% hike tomorrow.  Personally, I don't think this will happen tomorrow, but could be announced for next FOMC.  Just from past experience with Powell as the Chair, he doesn't like to surprise the Markets, so I think he will maintain the 0.5% stance at this meeting, but communicate further hikes for future meetings.  that's just a personal thought; but, it's possible that he could surprise us tomorrow.  Also, The Markets raised the odds of a possible recession, if coupled with high inflation, then would be our worst nightmare (Stagflation).  Fingers crossed that this doesn't occur.  MBS is Down about 56 bps today.  This is on top of the Market closing down 144bps yesterday and down 73bps last Friday.  So, the Market is down over 250bps, which means that pricing for a No Cost loan last week will cost more than 2.5% points now.  This has pushed the average 30 year fixed loan up into the 6% range now.  We do have a solution for this, so if you're in need of a lower rate loan program, then please send me a message.  Meanwhile, Yields are at the highest place in the last 10-11 years; currently sitting around 3.45% now.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, June 13, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/13/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today, but the rest of the week does contain a lot of important data.  The most important day this week will be Wednesday, as the FOMC concludes and the Fed provides their announcement.  The Market Sentiment really soured after Friday's release of the CPI data and has spilled over into today's session.  Both Stocks and MBS are getting hit hard.  Investors are beginning to realize that Consumers (based on the Consumer Sentiment last Friday) feel like they're in a recession due to the high prices and are struggling to make it month to month.  Some are wondering if the Fed might revise their rate hike to 75bps, in lieu of the 50bps planned.  Personally, I don't think they will do so at this meeting; however, it's possible they could look into it for one of their future meetings.  I think they'd like to prepare the Markets for any possible moves and not to surprise them.  Friday, MBS struggled (at one point down around 100 bps), but closed down 73bps.  However, today it followed the trend that it started on Friday, as the Market is selling off to the tune of -132bps (it dropped further as I was wrapping up this video to -150bps).  To fully understand the bps, then it is best to know that 1 point is equal to 100 bps; so, our Mortgage Rates that were quoted on Friday at No Point will now cost you 1.5% points today.  Yields spiked to it's highest levels in more than the past 5 years.  It's currently 1.36% and worsening.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 10, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/10/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Inflation data came in with a nuclear explosion!  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in May, as it's YoY rose from 8.3% in April to 8.6%.  The Core CPI, which excludes food & energy, rose 0.6% in May, as it's YoY dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%.  Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment dramatically dropped from 58.4 in May to 50.2 in June.  As one could imagine, Consumers aren't happy about the spike in food and energy!  Investors are looking at this data and are realizing that Inflation may not have peaked yet.  This means that the Fed will need to (possibly) further tighten policy to get inflation back down.  Both Stocks and MBS are Down by a lot today.  MBS was down as much as 110bps, but currently sitting around 75-77bps.  This means that a No Point quote yesterday will most likely cost about a point today.  There are big swings in the Market today, so Lenders will be slow on any price improvements, in case they worsen again.  Obviously, Mortgage Rates have worsen today.  Yields spiked all the way up to 3.15%.  This is touching on the level reached last month, before it subsided.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 9, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/9/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rise to 229k this week, as it hits a 5 month high.  Markets reacted quickly to the hawkish ECB's announcement, which announced they will hike rates in July; end their asset purchases (reinvest matured bonds); and revised their inflation data higher in their forecasts.  This set the tone with the Markets in the EU in a negative manner, which trickled over to the US Market.  MBS is currently Down 23 bps, as it's been rising and dropping, like a seesaw all day.  The 30 year Bond Auction temporarily helped push up MBS, but it has dropped again thereafter.  Mortgage Rates have worsened slightly.  Yields have risen slightly to 3.04%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/8/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories rose 2.2% in April.  Both Markets are Down today, as Investors await inflation data on Friday.  They want to verify their beliefs that inflation has already peaked.  Meanwhile, oil continues to climb, reaching $121/barrel.  MBS is also competing with Corporate Bonds that being added to the Market.  It's currently Down 27bps, as Mortgage Rates worsen from yesterday's close; and fell below it's 25 DMA again.  Yields have climbed above the 3% level again; and is currently just under 3.03%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/7/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  As mentioned in yesterday's report, this week is light with Economic data, as today is one of the days without anything with merit.  So, the impact will come mostly from headline news and geopolitical this week.  Today, stocks are down on renewed concerns over the retail industry, as Target reiterated it's profit outlook and began taking preventive measures.  This set the mood in the Markets.  This is helping Mortgage Rates today, as the MBS is currently Up between 38-43bps.  Yesterday, we lost 53bps and closed below the 25 DMA; so, we are regaining most of the losses that were incurred from yesterday's trading this morning and pushing back above the 25 DMA.  We'll need to see if it can hold.  Also, even if we break above the 25 DMA, then within next week or so, the 50 DMA may be crossing the 25 DMA which will add more pressure (it will need to decide whether to go up or down).  Yields are back down below 3% at 2.98%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, June 6, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/6/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today; and the week ahead is pretty light.  However, Friday, the CPI will be released and this could have a big impact with the Markets.  The Markets are continuing to assess the Fed's Policy with the current and future economic landscape; and monitor any more of the talk about reducing tariffs, as a method to bring down inflation.  As I noted in the video, prior to the spike with inflation, the tariffs didn't seem to have much impact with inflation; so, it seems to reason that this response may not really do much.  Stocks are Up today after another bad week, which Investors are buying on the Dip today.  Meanwhile, this has pulled investment dollars from MBS, along with more Corporate Bonds taking up more of the investment dollars.  So, MBS is currently Down about 50-52bps, which means that Friday's No Point loan will now cost about a half a point in discount fees.  MBS is breaking below it's 25 DMA today.  On the inverse side, Yields spiked above the 3% range (last seen about a month ago); and currently around 3.03%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 3, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/3/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released several Jobs reports today for the month of May.  They reported that Average Earnings rose 0.3%, while the Average Workweek remained Unchanged at 34.6 hrs.  The Non-Farm Payrolls came in with 390k and an upward revision of 8k to April's data.  Unemployment Rate remained Unchanged at 3.6%.  Lastly, the ISM Services PMI dipped to 55.9%, which is still in expansion territory.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as they watch the data being released, listening to Fed Members on Fed Policy and CEOs with some pessimistic outlooks.  MBS dropped on the Jobs data, but the ISM data gave it a little boost.  Currently, MBS is Down 19 bps from yesterday's close.  This is enough for Lenders to have less favorable pricing on their rate sheets compared to yesterday.  Also, Yields have continued to rise, as it's now up to just a hair under 2.96%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 2, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/2/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP revised their April report lower to 202k (off from 247k).  It's May report came in (underwhelmingly) at 128k.  The Initial Jobless Claims reported 200k applied for first time benefits last week.  Labor Costs for the first Quarter were revised higher by 1% to 12.6%.  Although, we like to see people make more money, it's at the cost of higher inflation!  Productivity for the first Quarter was revised slightly better to -7.3% (from -7.5%).  Factory Orders only rose 0.3% in April, which is off from it's forecasts of 0.7%.  Overall, not a great day for economic data.  Microsoft announce a bleak forecast, which had the Markets listening.  We have a few Fed Speakers talking today; which Vice Chair Brainard did speak already and indicated that she doesn't want to see any pause with the rate hikes.  OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production for July and August, as production from Russia drops due to sanctions, which has the price per barrel still around $117.  After 2 days of negative movements in the Markets (both Stocks and MBS), Investors came back and have them in positive territory again.  MBS is ranging between both it's 25- and 50 DMA; and currently Up 13bps.  We got a slight improvement on our rate sheets today.  Yields are still sitting above it's 25 DMA, after breaking above the line yesterday, and around 2.92% currently.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/1/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP Private Payrolls would normally be released today, but it was rescheduled for tomorrow; along with the Initial Jobless Claims.  Constructions Spending rose only 0.2% for April, as forecasts called for 05%.  The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1%.  This data is showing investors that the economy is doing well, so the Fed should continue it's course of tightening policy.  Fed Member Bostic cautioned the Markets that a pause after the next few rate hikes doesn't mean the Fed will bend to the Markets whims, as it fights to control inflation.  There will be a few other Fed Members speaking today, so the Market could move accordingly.  Meanwhile, the Fed will begin their Balance Sheet reduction today, which will add more pressure to Mortgage Rates, as they sell off Treasuries and MBS from their holdings.  MBS is currently Down 50 bps, as it challenges it's 25 DMA.  This is the same as a half point to a rate that you may have been quoted yesterday as No Point (now costs a half a point or half a percent of the loan amount to obtain that rate).  Meanwhile, Yields continue to spike and add more pressure to MBS, as it's beginning to break above it's 25 DMA at 2.94%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/31/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  This week will be about Jobs data, starting tomorrow with the ADP and ending on Friday with the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Today, we have 2 Home Price Indices (HPI) for the month of March.  The Case Shiller HPI rose by 2.4% MoM and 21.2% YoY.  This index measures the 20 largest cities in the US.  The FHFA HPI rose by 1.5% MoM and 19.0% YoY.  This index measures the homes with conforming loans.  Manufacturing picked up in the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI rose to 60.3 in May.  Lastly, the Consumer Confidence dipped to 106.4, which still beat the 104.0 forecasts.  Stocks are Down today, as well as, MBS is Down 42bps (off from earlier lows of approximately 52bps).  News of China lifting some of it's COVID lockdowns is creating some optimism, but Oil prices are spiking (up to $118/barrel), as EU report less dependency on Russian oil and a spike with inflation curb that enthusiasm.  Also, Fed Member Waller had some very hawkish comments, as he reiterated his stance on rate hikes.  He stated that he's in favor of 50bps rate hikes until inflation is at the 2% level.  Both MBS and Yields pulled away from their 50 DMA and sitting between the 25 DMA and 50 DMA.  Yields spiked up to 2.84% (after touching 2.72% last week).  Mortgage Rates worsened from Friday's rate sheets.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, May 27, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/27/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Consumer Spending's March data was revised higher by 0.3% to 1.4%; while April it rose by 0.9%.  However, it's counter-part, Personal Income, only rose 0.3% in April.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 59.1 in April to 58.4 in May.  Now, the big news!  Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose only 0.2% in April, as it's YoY dropped from 6.6% in March to 6.3% in April.  The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in April while it's YoY dropped 0.3% to 4.9%.  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, which is why it is highly sensitive data and can create a lot of volatility in the Markets.  Today's numbers helped the Markets, as Investors are feeling a bit more optimistic about inflation peaking.  Stocks are Up today; and appear to have a positive week -thus ending some long losing streaks in the process.  MBS has been teetering back and forth in positive and negative territory, but not enough to swing Mortgage Rates in either direction after yesterday's close.  So, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged!  However, sometimes heading into a long weekend, we will receive an extra boost before Market close because it provides safety for investors' funds in case of any surprises over the long weekend.  Let's see!  Yields are currently around 2.74%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 26, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/26/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 8k from last week's data to 210k; however, Continued Claims rose from 1.315 million to 1.346 million from last week's report.  The 2nd preliminary data report from GDP worsened by 0.1% to showing a contraction of 1.5% for Q1.  Pending Home Sales dropped by 3.9% in April to 99.3k seasonally adjusted units.  There was a 7 year Treasury Auction earlier today, which went very well; and helped to temporarily help MBS.  Stocks are in Positive Territory today, as Investors review economic data, after effects of the Fed's Minutes (released yeterday) and continued Corporate Earnings releases.  Investors were good with the Fed's Meeting and seemed to be pleased that the Fed may be pausing after July's rate hike; and a few of the Corporate Earnings Reports came out with some positive news.  MBS was averaging between -3bps and +3bps; however, toward end of the video, it did turn a bit uglier (Down 11bps).  Currently, Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's rate sheet.  If the trend downward continues, then Lenders may reprice for the worse.  MBS is currently challenging it's 50 DMA.  Meanwhile, Yields is hovering just under 2.77% and challenging it's 50 DMA and Technical Level (double floor).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/25/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Durable Goods Orders had a lower revision to it's March report, as it went from 1.1% to 0.6%.  It's April's report underwhelmed at 0.4% after forecasts were calling for 0.6%.  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released, which could impact the Markets in the 2nd half of the trading day.  Investors are worried over the Fed's tightening policies and high inflation, along with the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.  The concern is regarding the possibilities of the economy going into a recession, or worse yet, stagflation.  Corporate Earnings are reiterating those concerns with their worsening profit margins and their outlooks.  Stocks are currently in Mixed trading range; whereas, MBS is in relatively Unchanged levels (ranging between -2bps and +3bps).  So, this current range does not have any change with Mortgage Rates (in comparison from yesterday's close).  Yesterday was a good day for MBS, as they closed upward of 56bps and are approaching it's 50 DMA.  So, it will pose the question if the 50 DMA will cap out the MBS movement, or can it break above it?  Meanwhile, Yields are hovering around 2.76% this morning.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/24/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Markit Manufacturing PMI, as expected dropped to 57.5 in May; and Markit Services PMI dropped to 53.8, below expectations.  New Home Sales dropped 16.6% in April to 591k of seasonally adjusted units, as the spike in Mortgage Rates takes it's toll on New Homes.  Stocks are Down again, as more Corporate Earnings continue to disappoint due to inflationary costs cutting into Profit Margins.  As stocks drop, investors transfer those investment dollars over to MBS, as MBS is Up 52bps so far this morning.  This means that Mortgage Rates improve a bit today, as they slowly approach it's 50 DMA now in it's chart.  Likewise, Yields have dropped down to 2.74%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 23, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/23/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  The rest of the week will have some important data being released, such as, Durable Goods, GDP and the biggie, PCE.  Stocks are Up today, as Investors are buying on the Dip, but also on some reports that the Biden Administration is considering removing the Tariffs on China as a method to fight inflation (if you want my remarks, then you can watch video).  MBS is Down about 27bps points today, so Mortgage Rates have worsened since Friday's close.  Fortunately, it's still above the 25 DMA.  Yields climbed up to just under 2.86%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, May 20, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/20/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  Next week, we'll have a number of important data, but the most important will be the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday.  This is the Fed's favorite index to gauge Consumer Inflation.  MBS is pretty much following the cue from the Stock Market, which continues it's decline, as Investors stress over inflation induced shrinkage with Corporate Profit Margins, as the Fed continues to hike rates and concerns over recession and stagflation persists with the current economic environment.  MBS started the day lower; however, quickly rose to positive territory (averaging between 6-11bps while filming this video).  This isn't enough to change pricing (compared from yesterday), so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Also, the current candlestick position on the chart is still above the 25 DMA.  Meanwhile, Yields have slipped a bit further, just under 2.80%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 19, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/19/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Philly Fed Index dropped from 17.6 in April to 2.6 in May.  This index measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia area.  This has been see quite a bit this month, so we'll monitor to verify if this is becoming a trend or not.  Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218k.  Housing data continues to disappoint this week, as the Existing Home Sales dropped by 2.4% to 5.61 million annualized units in April.  Lastly, the Leading Indicator dropped 0.3% in April.  Stocks are Mixed today, as Investors continue to worry about shrinking profit margins  and investment dollars are flowing over into MBS.  MBS is currently Up 30bps, as pricing for Mortgage Rates continued to improve.  Today is a first for MBS, which it opened above the 25 DMA.  This is first time we've been above 25 DMA since October 2021.  Once we crossed lower, then it trended lower.  We may have finally found our floor of support with MBS, as we're starting to see some improvement.  How much improvement will be a good question.  Meanwhile, Yields fell down to just under 2.85%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/18/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped by 0.2% in April, as March data was revised lower (from 1.793 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.728 million).  April's data reported at 1.724 million.  Likewise, Building Permits dropped 3.2% in April.  However, it's March data was revised higher (from 1.870 million to 1.879 million).  April's data came in at 1.819 million.  We'll continue to monitor this data, as we saw yesterday that confidence with Home Builders dipped in May.  This trend could continue.  Meanwhile, there's a massive selloff with Stocks today, as Investors continue to review Corporate Earnings Reports, which many large Retailers are releasing their reports this week.  Many have missed their numbers, which is due to their rising costs (a result from high inflation).  Investment dollars have diverted over to MBS, as it's currently Up 33bps.  We're seeing an improvement with pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have come down to 2.89% and pushing it's 25 DMA again.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/17/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales rose 0.9% in April, after a sharp higher revision to March (from 0.5% to 1.4%).  This, on the surface looks very good, but Rick Santelli made a great point about this data.  The point is related to the data not being adjusted for inflation.  The reported data may be over-inflated due to the spike in inflation.  Even Walmart disappointed with their Earnings Reports that was just released yesterday.  More retailers will be releasing their data this week.  In other Economic data, Industrial Production rose 1.1% in April.  The NAHB Home Builders Index, which measures confidence with Home Builders, dropped dramatically in May, as it went from 77 in April to 69 in May.  We'll need to monitor this, as it may indicate that Home Builders may not continue to build homes, or simply dropoff.  Lastly, Business Inventories rose 2.0% in March.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Retail Sales data, as Investors are feeling like inflation isn't affecting the Consumers (I stated previously my thoughts).  Also, it seems like China may lighten up with their Technology Companies, as they tightened up with them last year.  This is of course amidst a slowing economic market.  Analysts, like JPM Chase, revised their thoughts on buying into their stocks.  MBS is Down approximately 45bps, after touching it's 25 DMA yesterday.  This has led to ratesheets today with a little bit of worse pricing.  Also, Yields jumped back above it's 25 DMA and sitting just under 2.97%.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking a little later this morning; and a few Fed Members will follow.  Depending upon their statements, it could have a major impact with the Markets.  So, stay tuned!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 16, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/16/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the NY region contracted in April, as the Empire State Index reported that it declined 11.6 on it's index on forecasts of +17.00.  The week ahead has Retail Sales (which may coincide with many Corporate Earnings releases for some of the largest Retailers), Housing data and Manufacturing.  Today, Stocks are down again on pessimism by Investors on the possibility of a smooth landing with the path of the Fed policy, as many economists revise global economic growth lower.  Part of the issue lies with China's current COVID lockdowns, which is having a major constraint with the supply chain.  This is having a positive effect with Mortgage Rates, as MBS is currently  Up 13bps, but have been averaging between +14bps to 23bps.  MBS is currently challenging it's 25 DMA overhead, which has put a cap on any potential trend.  At least for today, we'll see some slight improvement with our Mortgage Rates.  Yields are currently just under 2.89% and below it's 25 DMA once again.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, May 13, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/13/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Sentiment dropped fairly significantly in May, as it went from 65.2 in April to 59.1 in May.  This is an important index to gauge, as Consumer behavior affects whether the economy will weaken or strengthen; and if they're not feeling it, then it could eventually lead to a recession (and possibly, "Stagflation").  It's impact with the Markets today was only brief.  Stocks are rebounding today after a week of beatdowns.  As a result, MBS is currently Down 16bps.  This is simply a movement of investment dollars flowing from MBS to equities, as Investors are buying low.  But this also means for us that Mortgage Rates worsened slightly.  If you watch the video, then you'll see that the 25 DMA held it's own with the MBS and pushed away the trend in the Japanese Candlestick.  Similarly, Yields were briefly challenging it's 25 DMA, only pushed back above it today.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 12, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/12/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly from last week to 203k.  This is people applying for first time benefits.  The good news is that Continuing Claims has continued to decline.  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures Wholesale Inflation, rose only 0.5% in April.  This is after a big spike in March, which it rose 1.6%.  The Core PPI, which excludes food & energy, rose only  0.4% (beating out estimates of 0.6%), while it's YoY dropped from 9.6% in March to 8.8%.  Normally, this data doesn't get much respect, but due to inflation being the hot topic, the it's value has increased.  This report has given some investors and economist renewed hope that inflation has peaked; and hopefully, will get better.  Stocks are down again today, as they're still working their way thru the Fed policy road map.  This data didn't hurt MBS, as it has given investors a bit more hope regarding inflation.  Today, it has been a bit volatile, as we've seen it bounce back in highs and lows.  It's lows were equal to the same level as yesterday's close.  It's currently Up 38bps, so Lenders rate sheets have continued to show some improvement this week.  It's been awhile since we've had any improvement past 2 consecutive days; and now it's been 4 (if this continues).  However, MBS is approaching it's 25 DMA again, so we'll see if it can spring past it; or does it contain it(?)  Meanwhile, Yields have dipped below it's 25 DMA and sitting just under 2.83%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/11/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Priced Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April while it's YoY dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, missing expectations of 8.1%.  The Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.6% while it's YoY dropped from 6.5% to 6.2%, also missing it's forecasts of 6.0%.  One of the real reasons behind this drop was due to a big spike in March 2021, which fell off the YoY average.  This is still concerning, especially when you look at the MoM data.  Some Economists are now calling on the Fed to hike rates at 0.75%, which they announced last week was off the table.  It will be interesting to see if the Fed has a change of heart, so when they have any more upcoming speeches, then you know people will be listening for any hints of a 0.75% hike possibility.  Stocks are down on the news, along with more disappointing earnings reports.  MBS had a rollover, so the graph looks worse than reality.  This is when there's a reset in pricing for MBS, which we're now rolling over to June.  There's no effect on pricing for Mortgage Rates.  MBS was Down quite a bit this morning, which prompted worse pricing; however, it subsided and is now Up 8-11bps; and Lenders have repriced for the better.  Pricing is similar to yesterday's close, if not a little better.  Yields spiked earlier (touching off the 3.0% range) and have slid back down to 2.93%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/10/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  The Markets are preparing themselves for tomorrow when the CPI is released.  This will have the biggest impact this week, as Investors are looking for confirmation that inflation has peaked.  Stocks have been selling off over the past few days in preparation, as Investors are concerned over the Fed's tightening policy and they haven't seen signs of inflation cooling down quite yet.  This has helped MBS to some degree, as it's up again today (+48bps).  Mortgage Rates improve again today.  Yields have also fallen down to 2.95% (after it was as high as 3.17% yesterday).  Be careful, as we haven't really seen more than 2 days of gains, only to find them wiped out on the 3rd day with a big loss.  We're approaching the 25 DMA with MBS, which we haven't had much interaction with any of their Moving Averages, so it will be interesting to find if they get pushed back down, or are they able to rise above it?  We'll most likely find out that answer tomorrow!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 9, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/9/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories maintained their pace with 2.3% increase for March.  There's not a lot of Economic Data to be released this week, so most focus will be on the upcoming inflation data by CPI and PPI.  Investors will be looking for possible acknowledgement that Inflation has peaked.  There's still real concern over inflation, which is what's dictating the Markets.  Investors are concerned that the Fed may not be doing enough (especially when they announced the 75 bps hike is off the table) and the probability of an economic slowdown (while inflation is still high), which will lead to the worse case scenario (Stagflation).  Stocks are Down today and Investors have shifted investment dollars over to Bonds/MBS.   MBS is currently Up 33bps, as Mortgage Rates show some improvement after Friday's big selloff.  It was very volatile in the immediate morning as the Market sought some liquidity, as Investors had large gaps between what the Buyers and Sellers were willing to buy and sell.  It began to improve just before 7am PST and most Lenders improved their rate sheets from it's initial rate sheet.  Meanwhile, Yields have slid from earlier highs to just under 3.08% (after touching at 3.17%).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, May 6, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/6/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Average Earnings rose only 0.3%, coming in under forecasts.  Hopefully, this is an indicator that wage inflation is stabilizing.  Non-Farm Payrolls reported 428k new jobs for April, beating expectations!  However, the Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%; likewise, the Average Work Week (hrs.) remained unchanged at 34.6 hours per week.  One piece of data that didn't make it onto the graph, was the Labor Participation, which dropped 0.2% to 62.2%.  This is something to monitor, as there may be some concerns of another Great Resignation.  Both Markets (Stocks and MBS) are reacting similarly.  Yesterday, Investors were very concerned over the Labor Cost and Productivity data; and today's data is a little mixed and being treated somewhere in the middle.  Investors are thinking that the Fed is behind in the curve with fighting inflation and appear disappointed that the 75bps hike possibility is off the table may only lead to the possibility of stagflation; and feel that a "soft landing" is not possible.  The MBS Market is facing a lot of illiquidity, as the gap between Sellers and Buyers continue to widen a bit.  MBS is facing a lot of volatility today, as they're currently Down 30bps, which is off from earlier lows.  Either way, Mortgage Rates have worsened by at least a .125% to the rate.  Meanwhile, Yields continue to rise, as they are now at 3.12%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 5, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/5/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Bank of England's announcement started off our calendar today, as they hiked their rates up by 0.25%.  Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims rose back up to 200k.  Challenger Layoffs announced an additional 3 million job layoffs to come.  However, the Continuing Claims dropped about 20k from last week.  Labor Costs rose 11.6% in it's initial report for Q1, while Productivity dropped by 7.5%.  This latter portion is concerning; especially the Labor Costs, as this is inflationary data.  After the Fed provided their announcement yesterday, both Markets rallied quite well (DOW was up over 900 points and MBS closed Up over 60bps).  However, today, that rally quickly disappeared and more losses are mounting.  DOW is down over 1k so far today and MBS is Down 80bps.  The rally started yesterday because the Fed announced they would remove the 75bps off the table for any of their upcoming FOMC, but the 50bps hike would be a strong choice.  Today, there's no real clear explanation for it, other than some possible technical positioning.  There's a glut of unexpected Corporate Bonds being sold on the Market today, so this could be helping to exacerbate today's MBS losses.  There's also a lot of illiquid positions in the Markets, as there's  a large gap between the Buyers and Sellers.  Meanwhile, Yields have spiked to 2018 levels as they are now just a hair under 3.10%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/4/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP reported 247k new jobs for Private Payroll in April, which came in much lower than forecast.  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped from 58.3 in March to 57.1 in April, which it slowed with the Services sector, like it's counterpart in Manufacturing in yesterday's report.  Later today, the Fed will provide their announcement after it's completion of the 2 day FOMC.  It's widely expected for them hike rates by 50bps and begin the Balance Sheet reduction.  Investors will listen to how aggressive of approach the Fed will take going forward.  Both Stocks and Bonds opened lower for the day.  MBS are currently off their morning lows; however, still Down around 13bps.  Mortgage Rates are priced a little worse today.  This trend started yesterday afternoon, as MBS closed in the Red (after being in positive territory for most of the day).  Investors are positioning themselves ahead of the Fed Announcement, so it could become very volatile after their announcement.  Meanwhile, Yields did touch off the 3.00% Mark and currently is sitting at just under 2.99%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/3/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Factory Orders exceeded expectations for March and rose by 2.2% on forecasts of 1.1%.  Also, February's data was revised from -0.5% to +0.1%.  The Fed begins their 2 day meeting (FOMC), which they'll be providing their announcement tomorrow.  It is widely expected they'll hike rates by 0.5% tomorrow, along with plans to implement the Balance Sheet reduction.  Investors will watch for clues as to how they plan to proceed: like how aggressive will they be to reduce the Balance Sheet; and will they hike rates by 0.75% for their June & July meetings or do 4 consecutive 0.5% hikes?  These are the questions that are going through the investors' minds.  Both Markets improved late in the day yesterday, as stocks closed in positive territory and MBS down 17bps (after being down 36bps early on).  Today, they both are trending in positive territory, as MBS is currently Up 13bps.  So, Mortgage Rates improved some; and close to same level as we closed on Friday.  Yields touched off the 3.00% range yesterday and have pulled back some.  It's currently just under 2.95%, but was down to 2.92% earlier on.  The FOMC will have the greatest impact this week for the Markets; and the Jobs data will be second most impactful (especially on Friday with the BLS' report).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 2, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/2/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing appears to be weakening, as inflation and supply chain issues mount, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.1 in March to 55.4 in April.  Anything above 50 is still considered expansion with this index.  A side note, Construction Spending came in underwhelmingly at 0.1% increase for March.  Investors are positioning themselves ahead of the 2 day FOMC, which begins tomorrow and their announcement on Wednesday.  It is expected they'll raise the rates by 0.5% and begin with the Balance Sheet reduction.  There's some recent debate on the pace of the ratehikes, as some are projecting a 0.75% for both June and July meetings; whereas, some believe it will be 4 consecutive 0.5% ratehikes.  Also, they'll be seeking to find out more information on how they plan to reduce the Balance Sheet (or how aggressive they'll be).  MBS opened this morning with a BIG selloff, as Mortgage Rates rise again today.  The lows were around -36bps, but as I was doing the video, it subsided to -27bps.  Yields are quickly approaching the 3.00% level, as they are currently at 2.99%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, April 29, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/29/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's a lot of important Economic Data being released today, which I'll touch on some of it after I list the reported data.  Employment Costs (initial) rose 1.4% for Q1.  Personal Income rose 0.5% in March while Consumer Spending rose 1.1%.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.9% in March, as it's YoY rose from 6.4% to  6.6%.  However, it's Core PCE (excludes food and energy) rose 0.3% as it's YoY dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation!  The Chicago PMI, which measures the manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, dropped from 62.9 in March to 56.4 in April.  Lastly, Consumer Sentiment dipped by 0.5 to 65.2 in April.  MBS dropped to it's lowest levels right after the PCE data was released.  Investors were concerned over the 0.9% headline number and the persistent rise in Employment Costs (especially related to wages).  Those both are very inflationary!  The Market pulled back from it's lows once the Consumer Sentiment was released; however, the Market shifted a bit again (a little worse).  MBS is currently Down 39bps as Mortgage Rates have worse pricing than yesterday.  The Market did improve a bit yesterday, which it closed Up 3bps, after being Down around 30bps and hanging around -13bps for most of day.  We did get some price improvement yesterday.  Today's pricing, however, worsened from yesterday's (better) pricing.  Yields continue to climb; and are now around 2.89%.  Now the Markets will be positioning itself ahead of next week's FOMC, which we're expecting an announcement of 0.5% rate hike and reduction of Balance sheet.  This will definitely be a Market Mover; but, the Markets have expected this to come for some time and probably have built those scenarios into the Market's pricing.  Stay tuned!

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, April 28, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/28/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims dropped again to 180k, as Continued Claims have shown signs of continuous declines.  All good news, as people are going back to work!  However, the initial reading for the Q1 GDP reported a drop of 1.4%, after posting an increase of 6.9% for Q4 2021.  This surprised the Markets, as they were forecasting an approximately 1% increase.  The GDP release dropped MBS to it's lowest levels of the day, which was down approximately 30bps; however, the Market has since subsided and is currently trading Down 13bps.  Overall, pricing for Mortgage Rates are a little worse than yesterday's close.  There may be some price improvements on some rate sheets, depending when they released their pricing (if it was during the low of the day, or around the current level).  Meanwhile, Yields jumped up over it's Technical ceiling and back into the 2.80% range; currently sitting at 2.87%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/27/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  According to the Economic Calendar, we have Pending Home Sales for the month of March, which it dropped 1.2% from February's numbers.  It came in at 103.7k seasonally adjusted units.  There was an Auction for both the 2 year and 5 year Treasuries, which didn't seem to have much of an impact with the Market today (as we've seen in the past recently).  MBS has been shifting between -17bps and -20bps, as I was doing this video.  It's enough for Lenders to worsen their pricing on Mortgage Rates (in comparison with yesterday's pricing).  Like I've been cautioning for a bit now, we can't get too excited when we have 1 or 2 days of improvement, as we've been seeing a lot of headfakes.  This trend has continued with the Market being down today.  Yields have climbed up a little today, which they're currently around 2.80%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, April 26, 2022

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Durable Goods improved by 0.8% in March.  We have 2 Home Price Indexes (HPI) for February being released today.  The first is Case Shiller HPI, which measures the 20 largest Metros in the US, rose to 20.2% YoY; and the FHFA HPI, which measures homes with Conforming limits, rose to 19.4% YoY.  Consumer Confidence was revised from 107.2 to 107.6 in March, so it went down to 107.3 in April based on the revision.  Similarly, New Homes Sales revised their data from February from 772k seasonally adjusted units to 835k, which it dropped down to 763k in March (again, based on the higher revision from prior month).  Meanwhile, Investors continue to review the Q1 Corporate Earnings releases, which this week is pack full of large corporations, including many of the FAANG companies.  They're also, observing the current situation in China (with all the lockdowns), which will have a deep impact with the global economy.  Stocks are down today (after making  a big turn-around to positive territory yesterday).  MBS closed off from their highs yesterday to around +45bps; and currently their off from their earlier highs (around 16bps at time of this recording).  Mortgage Rates are showing some improvement from yesterday's rate sheet.  Yields just stepped down about a point to 2.76%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, April 25, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/25/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today; however, this week will be packed with important data being released.  Friday will be the BIG day this week, as the PCE will be released.  Investors are hoping that inflation data has peaked, so we can hopefully see it to trickle downwards.  Meanwhile, Investors are on the fence about the Lockdowns in China, as more cities are being locked down.  This has helped to reduce the price of oil to under $100/barrel and reduce consumer consumption in China, which will reduce short-term inflation; however, it will also bottle neck the supply chain and create more inflation in Europe and US long-term.  Stocks are Down, as this will reduce growth prospects.  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Up 72bps, as Mortgage Rates improve today.  Be careful, as we still haven't found a floor yet; and we've seen this (head fakes) before!  Also, Yields have fallen quite a bit today, as they're now in the 2.77% range.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, April 22, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/22/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Markit PMI released their data for 2 sectors, Manufacturing and Services for the month of April.  The Manufacturing rose to 59.7 in April; while Services dropped to 54.7.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion.  Investors continue to review the Q1 Corporate Earnings releases; but they're currently in more in tuned with the recent Fed speak, including Fed Chair Powell's comments yesterday.  The hawkish tone has both Stocks and MBS down today.  They're expecting a 0.5% rate hike for May FOMC and begin the reduction of their Balance Sheet; but now they're starting to project a .75% hike for June's meeting, as the Fed has been emphasizing front loading hikes and getting to the "Neutral" point faster.  Currently, MBS is Down about 16bps, as Mortgage Rates continue to rise.  Yields are currently hanging around 2.91% range.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, April 21, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/21/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region dipped in April, as the Philly Fed Index dropped from 27.4 in March to 17.6 in April.  The number for April is still pretty good, but the steep decline is something to monitor.  Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 2k from last week's report to 184k; while Continuing Claims declined, as well.  Lastly, the Leading Indicator rose 0.3% in March.  Investors are listening to Fed Members today, including Jerome Powell sitting on a panel with the ECB's Lagarde.  The takeaway from their messages are hawkish, which include a preamble of what to expect at the May FOMC, which is a 0.5% rate hike and Balance Sheet reduction.  The idea of front loading the rate hikes to reduce inflation seems to be on most Fed Members' minds, so we could potentially see 0.75% in the near term.  They want to hit the 2-2.5% level, which is considered the "Neutral" level sooner than later; and determine later how much above it they'll need to go after further review of the front loaded ratehikes.  Investors are also reviewing Q1 Earnings Reports, which seem to be coming in Mixed.  Tesla made the headlines today on a positive note.  Stocks are Down today; as well as, MBS!  MBS kept dropping throughout the day with some seesaw activity inbetween.  It's currently Down 66bps, as Mortgage Rates worsen.  This is why we've warned about being careful of these headfakes, as we still search for a bottom of our MBS Chart.  It's still trending lower.  Meanwhile, Yields were as high as 2.95%, but recently slid down to 2.91%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/20/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Homes sales dropped by 2.7% in March, as the seasonally adjusted units were lowered to 5.77 million.  This is mostly due to low inventories.  Investors are reviewing Q1 Earnings reports, which Netflix is in the headlines, as they reported a decline of 200k subscriptions.  A few Fed Members are speaking today; and they main theme appears to be a quick route to "Neutral" level for Fed Funds Rate, which is around 2.50%.  This probably means that the Fed will raise rates at a higher than normal pace to attain that level sooner, than later.  We had a 20 year Bond Auction which briefly helped the Bond Market, but subsided closer to pre Auction levels.  MBS is currently UP 34bps, which has helped improve pricing Mortgage Rates.  This is helpful because of yesterday's close, which dropped 47bps.  Yesterday had re-prices  with worse pricing.  Yields had touched 2.95% range yesterday; however, today, it subsided to 2.84%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Daily Market Report 4/19/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing starts rose 0.3% in March to 1.793 million seasonally adjusted units.  Also, Permits rose 0.4%, as it reached 1.873 million.  Both exceeded forecasts; especially as confidence with Home Builders dropped 2 points for April, so next month's release will be interesting.  Stocks are Up today, as they continue to review Q1 Earnings Reports.  Also, IMF stated the obvious, which is the expected economic growth will slow down due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.  They stated it will slow down to 3.6% (by their estimate) and did not mention anything regarding thoughts on recession or stagflation.  European Markets finally  reopened, after a long holiday weekend.  Investors started to sell Bonds in EU and it trickled down over to the US in early hours.  MBS is currently Down 14bps (up from earlier lows), which has led to slightly worse pricing for Mortgage Rates today (compared to yesterday).  Yields have spiked to 2.90%, so we're now talking about the 3.0% threshold for Yields.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.