Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Happy New Years!  Hope you all have a fun, safe New Years Eve tonite!  We have a few data to report, which we'll begin with the Case Shiller HPI for October, which it rose from 3.2% to 3.3% YoY.  This is considered the "Gold Standard" index for Home Prices.  Consumer Confidence rose from 125.5 to 126.5 in December, which is another good sign for the economy.  Stocks are Down again this morning on rather light trading.  This time of year, the Big Trading Houses are typically working with skeleton crews, so we could see larger than normal swings in the Market because the Hedgefunds aren't trading to offset these types of swings.  President Trump tweeted that they will be signing the Phase One deal at the White House on January 15th.  The good news is already priced into the Stock Market.  The MBS is currently Down 6bps.  Yesterday's close had a late rally and closed Up 5bps.  Many Lenders improved their pricing in the late afternoon.  So, Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as after the price improvements in the afternoon.  Yields have inched it's way back up to 1.91% so far this morning.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, December 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Chicago PMI improved a little bit, as it went from 46.3 to 48.9 in December.  However, this still in contraction levels.  Pending Home Sales rose by 1.2% in November.  Stocks are in the Red this morning, as Investors reassess their positions in the Market.  As is the same for MBS, as it' currently Down 16bps.  Mortgage Rates are currently the same as Friday morning.  The Market improved on Friday, but most of those gains were late in the day, so Lenders didn't make any price changes.  Yields rebounded and are currently up to 1.93%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Friday, December 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are trading on light levels and in Mixed Territory so far this morning.  There was a report out of China that their November's Industrial Profits were Up and reversed several months of Negative Profits.  We're looking toward the signing of the Phase One Agreement sometime in January and Brexit.  Stocks have been on a pace, which it's daily breaking previous records, but it may be coming to some type of slowdown soon, as they're reaching a point that a correction may be warranted.  This could help Bonds/MBS.  MBS has had a few late mini rallies the last few days, which is helping its postioning.  It's currently Up 8bps and climbed above it's 25- and 50 DMA; and pushing up against it's 100 DMA.  You should see some slight improvement with Mortgage Rates with yesterday's late mini rally and today's improvement.  Yields have slid down to 1.88%.

Please subscribe my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Thursday, December 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped down to 222k last week.  Still relatively quiet, in terms of news, so the Market is still monitoring the Phase One Agreement.  Both sides are expressing that it's nearly done, it's a matter of translations and other fine details before both Presidents sign, which is expected to happen in January.  Stocks are Up this morning.  MBS is Down 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as we had a nice little surge late Tuesday (closed Up 11bps).  Yields are still hanging in near unchanged levels, as it's right around 1.92%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data to report today.  Markets will close early today for Christmas and return on Thursday, which we'll see the Weekly Jobless Claims.  From now until the end of the year, we may see some swings in the Markets, as we deal with skeleton crews.  Beijing reported that they will be removing tariffs on 850 US products at the beginning of the year.   We're looking forward to learning more about the agreement and it's signing next month.  There's been some talk about N Korea's promise of a Christmas Gift, if we don't meet their demands.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday's close and Yields are down to 1.92%.  Mortgage Rates haven't changed from yesterday's pricing.  Have a very Merry Christmas!

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, December 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Durable Goods Orders dropped by 2% in November, which was heavily affected by lack of Airline and Defense Goods being purchased.  When you remove autos, then it rose by 0.6%.  New Home Sales were revised lower from 733k annualized units to 710k in October.  In November it went to 719k, which it rose after the revision, but in reality, it dropped before the revision.  If you look further than the numbers, then you will know that New Home Sales are Up 17% YoY, which is what we really should be reviewing.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning on news that the CEO of Boeing resigned and that reports out of China indicate they will be either removing or lowering Tariffs on frozen pork, some high tech items and pharmaceuticals on January 1st.  MBS are currently off it's highs this morning, and currently Down 6bps.  Yields have pretty much plateaued at 1.92%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Friday, December 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Q3 GDP remained unchanged for it's final revision at 2.1%.  This indicates the economy is still growing at a modest pace, which is especially important due to the Trade negotiations with China during this period.  Personal Income rose by 0.5% in November.  Consumer Spending rose by 0.4% in November.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% MoM, whereas, it's YoY rose from 1.4% tp 1.5%.  The Core PCE (this is what the Fed uses when it gauges Consumer Inflation) rose only 0.1% MoM and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%.  The Fed's Target Rate is 2.0%, so this shows a very tame inflation report.  The Consumer Sentiment Index improved from 99.2 to 99.3 in December.  Stocks are still breaking new highs, so be cautious for any pull back on consolidation/profit taking.  MBS is currently Up 5bps.  Between yesterday's positive movement and today's, then some Lenders may price in Mortgage Rates a little better today.  I'd say you'd find it from Unchanged to slightly better.  Yields are currently at 1.92%.  The ceiling ahead is currently at 1.97%.  I think it's very possible that we could test it before we see any possibility of a pull back that would help MBS and Mortgage Rates.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims are down to 235k this week from last week's report of 252k, which is a welcomed sign; but it's still a little higher than we've been seeing, so we'll definitely keep an eye on this data.  The Philly Fed dropped to 0.3 (nearly in contraction range) in December, after being as high as 10.4 in November.  Existing Home Sales fell off it's pace of 5.44 million annualized units to 5.35 million in November.  Leading Economic Indicators remained Unchanged in November.  Stocks are Up this morning, even though the House voted for Impeachment because the sentiment is it will end in the Senate and not go anywhere.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning lower (below the Fibonacci level, acting as a floor, now a ceiling) is currently Down 3bps from yesterday's close (which closed Up from it's lows and back above the Fibonacci level) -so, it's fighting to remain above the Fibonacci level.  Yields are Up to 1.93%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Quiet Day in the Market today.  There are no data to report on the economic calendar today, and Geo-Political news is mostly mute.  Even though the House Vote for Impeachment Hearings is not a factor, as it's widely expected to die with the Senate, so Investors are not concerned.  Stocks are somewhat still riding the optimism from the China Trade Agreement.  There was a signal that the US may turn their attention toward the EU, as the USMCA is completed and the China Trade Agreement has been agreed.  Stocks are in Positive Territory so far this morning.  MBS is Down 27bps and below it's Floor of Support.  We'll need to watch this for any bounce back.  Mortgage Rates have worsened a bit today.  Yields have climbed Up to 1.91%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts increased to 1.365 million annualized units in November from a higher revision in October of 1.323 million.  A good forward indicator for more Housing Starts are Building Permits, which also, increased from 1.461 million annualized units to 1.482 million in November.  This is on the heels of yesterday's Home Builders Index, which measures their confidence level.  Yesterday's level was the highest in 20 years.  The Housing Starts reported today are the highest since 2007.  So, we're at a really good level!  Industrial Production picked up pace to 1.1% in November, while Capacity Utilization increased to 77.3%.  According to JOLTS Jobs Report for October, Job Openings increased from 7 million in September to 7.3 million in October.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, but showing signs of wearing down a bit with all of the recent Geo-Political news.  MBS is Up 2bps, so there's Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are slipped down to 1.88%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, December 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There was some slight improvement in the manufacturing sector for the NY region, as the Empire State Index rose from 2.9 to 3.5 in December.  Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services industries).  The Manufacturing dropped slightly from 52.6 to 52.5 in December; while the Services rose from 51.6 to 52.2.  Meanwhile, the Home Builders Index rose from 71 to 76 in December.  Stocks are Up on the optimism from Friday's Trade announcement, which is taking investment dollars from Bonds/MBS, so MBS is Down 23bps.  This will translate to a little worse pricing for Mortgage Rates today (compared to Friday's pricing).  Also, Yields have climbed Up to 1.88%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Friday, December 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales disappointed in November, as forecasts called for 0.5% increase, and it just increased by 0.2%; and if you exclude Autos, then it only rose 0.1%.  Import Prices rose 0.2% in November.  Business Inventories rose by 0.2% in October.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory, as China made their own announcement of the trade agreement with the US; however, a few indexes dropped in the Red, as no specifics of the deal has been reported.  In the UK, the election results favored PM Boris Johnson, which is expected to carry out the Brexit plan, as he is expected to have the support in Parliament needed for it to be carried out.  MBS is Up 29bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday's close.  Yields have slid down to 1.83%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Thursday, December 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/12/29

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims came in much hotter than expected at 252k.  As I had forecasted last week, this was to be expected because last week's really low number was due to the Thanksgiving Holiday being shortened and we'd see a bit of a spillover into this week's report.  Inflation came in very tame for the Wholesale sector, as the Producer Price Index was Unchanged in November, as was it's YoY set at 1.1%.  The Core PPI (strips out the volatility from food and energy) contracted by 0.2% in November while it's YoY dropped from 1.6% to 1.3%.  Stocks are way Up this morning after a tweet by President Trump indicating that a very big deal is about to be finished with China soon.  Both the Fed and ECB were nonevents; and the Fed expects to keep the rates at same levels thru 2020 and economy is still looking good.  However, MBS started to tank on the Tweet, as money is flowing from Bonds to Equities, and is currently down about 30bps.  We're currently down around the levels on Tuesday, in terms of pricing for Mortage Rates.  Yields are skyrocketing and are currently up to 1.89%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: CPI rose 0.3% in November and saw it's YoY increase from 1.8% to 2.1%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy components) rose 0.2%, as it's YoY remained Unchanged at 2.3%.  Later this morning, the Fed will wrap up their 2 day meeting and Chairman Powell will give his announcement.  The Markets will hold tight to hear from the Fed before making any swings in the Market, as Stocks currently are trading in Mixed Territory (DOW is lone index in Red).  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Up 11bps and approaching it's triple layer of resistance.  Right now, the Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, but are potentially on the cusp of Improving, but this will most likely be decided after the Fed makes their announcement.  Yields have slid down to 1.81% and sitting on it's 25 DMA.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/10/19

htp://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Confidence with Small Business picked up in November, as the NFIB Small Business ticked up from 102.4 to 104.7. The final Productivity for Q3 improved from it's initial report from -0.3% to -0.2%; and the final revision for Unit Labor Costs improved from rising 3.6% as it' initial number down to it's final of 2.5%. Stocks are mostly Up, as the DOW has been dipping it's toe in both sides of the line this morning. News came out that Congress and the White House has agreed on a new USMCA, which is expected to be signed later in Mexico City. Investors are watching for any news on US and China, as the deadline for the Dec. 15th Tariffs on $156 billion Chinese goods will be implemented. It's appearing that the White House will delay these tariffs in order to progress on the Phase One Agreement with China. The FOMC begins their 2 day meeting today, as they will provide their announcement tomorrow. There are no expectations for any rate movement at this meeting. MBS is currently down 9bps, and coupled with yesterdays lows, has Mortgage Rates worsening a bit today. Yields have climbed up to 1.84%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, December 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no data to report from the Economic Calendar today. Stocks are currently Mixed, as the DOW sits as the only index in Negative territory. Investors are looking ahead, as they search for fresh info on any news on the US/China Trade Negotiations, as the date for Tariffs is this coming Sunday, the 15th. Meanwhile, we have a round of global Central Banks making their announcements this week, including our own Fed, whom begins their 2 day meeting tomorrow and make their announcement on Wednesday. Not much is expected at this meeting, but remain in Neutral territory. The ECB will have their announcement read this Thursday by their new ECB President, Christine Lagarde (former head of IMF). It was reported that China's exports dropped 1.1% in November. MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday. Yields sit at 1.82%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Friday, December 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NonFarm Payrolls surprised everybody with their HUGE number for November, which 266k jobs were created; along with positive revisions to the prior 2 months by 41k. Forecasts called for 180k, which we thought was a stretch, but this Positive News is welcomed! The Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%, which is at a 50 year low. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% in November. Consumer Sentiment rose in December from 96.8 to 99.2. Overall, a great day! Stocks are Up on the data from this morning. Everything is pointing to progress on the Phase One Agreement between US and China. MBS is currently Down 3bps, even though it started the much lower. Same for yesterday, which leads to Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing. Yields continue it's rise, which it's sitting around 1.83% now. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 203k (a 7 month low) for last week. Of course, last week was a holiday shortened week for Thanksgiving, so take it with a grain of salt. Factory Orders rose by 0.3% in October (exceeding the 0.2% forecasts). Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory, but shortly after, they turned Negative. There were more positive comments about the US/China Trade Deal, as the Chinese Ministry commented that their representatives are closely working with the US; and President Trump reiterated the optimism during his visit with Chancellor Merkel yesterday. But Investors are tiring of the back-and-forth rhetoric and may be taking a "let's see" approach. Meanwhile, MBS is currently down 11bps, so Mortgage Rates have slightly worsened. However, they may rebound a bit tomorrow, if the Jobs data don't meet the forecast of 180k, which is a bit of a stretch. Of course, if an Agreement has been reached between the US/China, then all bets are off. Yields have risen to 1.80% now. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment Report disappointed today, as it reported only 67k new jobs for November and a revised lowered number (by 4k) in October's numbers. The Markit Services PMI remained Unchanged at 51.6 in November; while, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 54.7% to 53.9% in November. However, Stocks are Up this morning on a report by Bloomberg that the US and China are closer to a Phase One Deal despite all of the rhetoric. This news is superseding the poor jobs data today. Meanwhile, MBS is Down 8bps, and if you factor yesterday's close (well off from yesterday's highs of +42bps) at +25bps, then Lenders will tend to price Mortgage Rates a little worse today. Yields are clawing their way back and have reached 1.77%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We don't have any data from the Economic Calendar today; however, tomorrow will kick off with the first of 3 Jobs data to be released this week with the ADP Report. Stocks are heavily in the Red today, as comments by President Trump regarding a Chinese Trade Agreement happening any time soon is souring the Markets; along with more Tariff talk (not only Argentina/Brazil from yesterday's reports, but also upcoming Tariffs on Chinese goods on Dec. 15th, and EU for illegal subsidies to AirBus. MBS is rallying on this news, as it's Up 42bps, so Mortgage Rates improve. Yields have fallen all the way down to 1.70% (below all of it's previous floors of support). Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, December 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have 2 manufacturing indexes to report today. The first is the Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly rose from 52.2 to 52.6 in November; however, the ISM Manufacturing Index (the "gold" standard and carries more weight) dropped from 48.3% to 48.1%. Anything below 50 is considered Contraction. Construction Spending continued it's decline, as it dropped 0.8% in October. Stocks started the morning in Positive territory on positive manufacturing out of China, but quickly dropped (DOW and NASDAQ both are down over 100) on the Manufacturing Data, and possible Trade Concerns (now with Brazil and Argentina). MBS is Down 16bps and dropped below all of it's Support levels. Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit, as a result. This is due to an article that published a comment by Fed Chair Powell that he is willing to allow inflation to heat up a bit, which does not bode well for MBS/Bonds. This is because inflation is it's worst enemy, as it devalues the MBS/Bonds value over time. Yields have spiked to 1.83% and above all of it's resistance levels. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt