Thursday, September 23, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/23/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose to 351k this past week; and the Continued Claims spiked a bit, as more people remained on Unemployment.  The IHS Markit PMI released their Services and Manufacturing data for September.  Anything above 50 is expansion or optimism in the Market for these indices.  The Services dropped from 55.1 in August to 54.4 in September; while, Manufacturing dropped from 61.1 to 60.5.  On the flip side, Leading Economic Indicators jumped up 0.9% in August.  Stocks are Up again today, after the completion of the 2 day FOMC, which Investors received more clarity on the Fed's thoughts for the future.  The Fed stated, pending progress in jobs and economy, that tapering is still on the table for this year; however, it's also appearing that a rate hike may happen next year (a bit sooner than expected).  Investors were pleased with this and the announcement by Evergrande's on-time payment, so we're seeing a bit of a shift in investors' dollars flowing from MBS/Bonds to higher risk assets (equities) today.  MBS is taking a beating; and is currently Down 33bps, as Lenders repriced with worse pricing on their Rate sheets.  Mortgage Rates rise!  Yields spiked all the way to it's 100 DMA, but have subsided some.  It reached all the way to 1.40%.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/22/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Existing Home Sales dropped 2.0% in August, as July's data was revised slightly higher (from 5.99 million annualized units to 6.00 million).  It was reported at 5.88 million in August.  The Fed will be wrapping up it's 2 day meeting (FOMC) today, which they'll provide their announcement at 11:30 am PST.  Expect some choppiness!  Investors will await word on timeframe of the Fed tapering plans (this year or next), review Dot Plot (for interest rate hike forecasts by Fed members) and any policy statement changes.  It seems that most forecasters believe the Fed will hold on taper for the moment, and most likely announce at November's meeting.  Stocks are rebounding after another day of selloff; and ahead of Fed decision.  Investors received some good news on Evergrande, as they announced they'll make an on-time payment to one of their creditors.  However, this seems like they're just kicking the can down the road, as more payments will be needed; and they appear to be over-leveraged.  Unless, the Chinese Government intervenes, then they may not last.  So, stay tuned!  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing; and Yields have slid down to 1.31%.  There could be some volatility after the Fed announcement today, so be prepared for some possible swings in the Market.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/21/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts rose by 3.9% in August, while Building Permits (future Housing Starts) rose by 6.0%.  If you recall yesterday, that we had a slight uptick in the Home Builder Confidence.  Stocks are Up after yesterday's bloodbath (being blamed on Evergrande).  Investors are buying on the Dip.  Meanwhile, MBS started lower, but quickly recovered and are Up 2bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Likewise, Yields started a little higher, but has settled down to about 1.32%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, September 20, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/20/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NAHB Home Builders Index rose 1 point to 76 in September, as Home Builders gain some confidence.  Stocks are taking a beating today, as China's Evergrande HK is making big headlines.  They're a top 3 real estate developer that is facing financial collapse, as approximately $100 million in interest payments will be due over next 2 weeks for maturity on some bonds.  This is being compared to (level wise) to Lehman's collapse during Credit Crisis even though this has been going on for months; and having a major impact on Global Markets.  Meanwhile, Investors will be looking ahead to the FOMC (starting tomorrow with announcement on Wednesday).  They will be awaiting word on tapering timeline, along with forecasts on inflation and Dot Plot (gauge to view interest rates).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, September 17, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/17/21

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Sentiment reported it's mid-September number rose from 70.3 to 71.0.  We'll receive September's final reading toward the end of the month.  Meanwhile, Stocks are facing volatility, as today is the Quadruple Witching (expiration of options for 4 different sectors).  Stocks are all in the Red today.  Also, heading into next week is the FOMC, which will hold very high relevance, as many investors are uncertain if the Fed will begin tapering this year or next due to the recent data.  MBS is also taking a bit of a beating today too, as it's currently Down 11bps.  It was down more earlier today, which led Lenders to price their ratesheets a bit worse today (higher Mortgage Rates).   Yields have shot up to 1.38%, which is at the high end of the trading range.  We've been trading (roughly between) the 1.26% to 1.38% range.  Once it has hit the higher or lower range, then it has been bouncing to the other end.  However, next week could potentially push Yields higher, as Chairman Powell provides his announcement after the FOMC.  Stay tuned and be ready for more choppiness ahead of the FOMC announcement, as investors position themselves.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, September 16, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/16/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales surprised the Markets by posting an increase of 0.7% in August, as economists were projecting a drop.  When you exclude Autos, then it jumped up 1.8%.  The Philly Fed Index jumped up from 19.4 in August to 30.7 in September.  This index gauges the business activity in the Philadelphia region.  However, the Initial Jobless Claims rose to 332k last week for people applying for first time benefits.  Lastly, Business Inventories rose 0.5% July.  Stocks are Down today, as they brace for tomorrow's volatile day (Quadruple Witching Day) and ahead to next week's FOMC.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 19bps, as Mortgage Rates worsen a bit today.  Also, Yields ascended to just under 1.33%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/15/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the NY region spiked in September, as the Empire State Index reported it jumping from 18.3 in August to 34.3 in September.  Also, Industrial Production rose 0.4% in August.  Investors were pleased with the data, as Stocks are trading in Positive Territory today.  However, they're keeping one eye toward next week's FOMC, as uncertainty on when tapering will begin unfolds.  Based on the tamer CPI yesterday, then the Fed may not be so anxious to begin tapering sooner and wait for better Jobs data before proceeding ahead with tapering.  Meanwhile, economic data out of China is not looking too promising as their retail sales came in very poorly due to lockdowns.  Investors realize it will impact the Global Markets.  MBS started the morning higher, but as European Markets wind down, so did the appetite for Treasuries and Bonds (as more Corporate Bonds enter the Market -creating more competition).  MBS is currently Down 11bps and Lenders had repriced for the worse today, so Mortgage Rates are a little worse today (than yesterday).  Yields jumped back above 1.30%, as it's sitting around 1.31% currently.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/14/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The big report for this week was released, which is the CPI, or Consumer Price Index.  This index measures inflation on the Consumer level.  The CPI rose 0.3% in August, however, it's YoY dropped by 0.1% to 5.3%.  The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy (and viewed more closely), rose only 0.1% in August and it's YoY dropped by 0.3% to 4.0%.  This may indicate that we've reached out peak with inflation and may see it reside a bit further, as we continue to reopen the economy.  This may create some confusion as to the Fed's next move next week, as inflation now appears to be subsiding a bit and the poor jobs report.  There will be questions if they taper this year or next.  Meanwhile, Stocks are in the Red.  MBS is benefitting from the pullback in the Stock Market, as they're currently Up 16bps, so Mortgage Rates are better today.  Yields dropped below 1.30% to just under 1.27%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, September 13, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/13/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today, but the CPI tomorrow and retail sales on Thursday will be the big headline items for this week.  Also, we need to look toward next week when the FOMC begins their 2 day meeting.  Here, we'll find out if the Fed will proceed to begin it's taper this year, or hold on until possibly next year.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, with NASDAQ in the Red.  There was a survey, done by Deutsche Bank, for Investors, which "2/3 are expecting at least a 5% decline in stocks by end of the year.  The same survey found the biggest risks to the market are new variants that bypass vaccines, and higher than expected inflation or bond yields." (reported by MarketWatch).  MBS is currently Up 8bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  If you look at the Candle Chart, then you may wonder why today's candle is low on the chart and still be up?  It's because we had a Bond rollover day, which happens approximately every 30 days as MBS are packaged and sold on Wall Street (reasoning behind 30 day locks).  It's a reset in the pricing for the new month ahead, but does not affect Mortgage Rates.  Lastly, Yields slipped to just under 1.33% this morning.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, September 10, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/10/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% in Aug.  It's Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.6%; however, it's YoY rose from 6.2% in July to 6.7% in Aug.  The PPI measures inflation on the Wholesale sector.  This index doesn't always receive the Market's respect, as it doesn't always carry over to the Consumer Market.  Lastly, the Wholesale Inventories continued the pace of 0.6% growth in July.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory after Biden's address yesterday, which he is looking to mandate vaccinations on a Federal level.  Investors are hopeful that this will help to fully reopen the economy.  Also, Biden apparently had positive conversation with his Chinese Counter-part yesterday, easing some geopolitical concerns.  More Fed Members, including Cleveland's Fed Member Mester, are stating they weren't swayed by the latest Jobs data and still feel the Fed should begin tapering this year.  The FOMC will be in 2 weeks, so we may hear an announcement regarding this sentiment from Fed Chair Powell after the meeting.  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Down 5bsp, so this isn't enough to alter Mortgage Rates, which will remain Unchanged.  Yields climbed a little today, and are Up to 1.33%.  MBS and Treasuries weren't much affected by the PPI because of the decline on the month-over-month (MoM), which the Fed has said it is transitory.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, September 9, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/9/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims came in at it's lowest level since March 2020, as it was reported that only 310k applied for first time unemployment benefits.  The 30 year Bond Auction went well, as did yesterday's 10 year Treasury Auction.  This has helped Mortgage Rates, which we'll touch on in a bit.  Meanwhile, Stocks are Down today.  The ECB announced they will reduce their asset purchases, but are not calling it tapering.  Seems like it's more or less semantics; however, the Market responded positively to it's announcement.  Investors are watching for any further announcements by Biden, as it's being reported that he may mandate more vaccinations for federal employees.  Lastly, NY Fed Member Williams commented that the Fed is still on track to taper this year.  As you may recall, most Investors were resigned to believe the Fed won't begin tapering until next year after last Friday's dismal Jobs data.  If this rhetoric continues, then watch for any possible change in Market Sentiment.  MBS is Up 14bps after the Auction, as Mortgage Rates improve today.  Also, Yields have dropped down to 1.29%.  Both broke past their 25- and 50 DMA.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/8/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no major economic data to report today; however, later this morning will be the 10 year Treasury Auction.  This could impact Mortgage Rates.  Yesterday, the 3 year Treasury had good results, even though there were about $35 billion in Corporate Bonds competing with those investment dollars.  Typically, a busy week for Corporate Bonds is $20 billion for a WEEK.  Today, there will be more Corporate Bond offerings (including Walmart and Toyota).  Stay Tuned!  Stocks are Down today, as investors begin to rebalance their positions again for end of quarter.  Most Investors are resigned to the sentiment that the Fed will taper later after August's Jobs data; even though Fed Member Bullard commented that he'd like the Fed to taper sooner than later.  Also, Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to Congress urging them to do something, like raise the debt ceiling, as the Treasury will only have funds to cover bills until end of October.  MBS is Up 2bps, as it's held below a double layer of 25- and 50 DMA.  The 25 DMA has been a tough cap for MBS, so it's worth watching.  Today's auction could push MBS one direction or another.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Also, Yields slipped down to 1.35% today.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/7/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Light week, this week, for economic data!  The biggest factors for us (mortgage related) will be the Treasury and Bond Auctions being held throughout the week.  Today, we have the 3 yr Treasury (at the time of this video, it's results weren't released).  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory again today, as they are still reviewing the Non Farm Payrolls released from last Friday.  Now, Investors are resigned to the sentiment that the Fed won't announce any taper until end of the year; and possibly start tapering early 2022.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning in a deep dive (down about 19bps), but (luckily) reversed most of the losses and is currently Down about 6bps.  Most Lenders released their ratesheets after the rebound, so Mortgage Rates should be Unchanged from Friday's close (however, there may be some whom printed early on, whom may released worse pricing).  Fortunate for us, MBS is outperforming Yields, which is currently Up to 1.36%; but did touch off 1.38% early on.  This volatile effect with MBS and Yields are due the Auctions for Bonds and Treasuries this week, which creates more supply in the Markets.  They will be competing amongst each other, along with Corporate Bonds, for investment dollars.  

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, September 3, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/3/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is the BIG Day for Investors, as they await the BLS' Jobs data.  Even though there was some positive revisions (approximately 150k) to the previous 2 month's data, Investors are very disappointed with the 235k number that the BLS reported for August.  However, the Unemployment Rate still dropped from 5.4% to 5.2% in August.  Average Earnings rose 0.6% in August, which is a bit concerning, as this will be inflationary data.  The Average Workweek remained Unchanged at 34.7 hours/week.  Lastly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped from 64.1 in July to 61.7 in August.  Anything above 50 is considered Positive/Expansion.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as there are 2 Camps battling it out.  Those whom believe the Fed will continue to taper this year; and those whom think it will be delayed.  This data has created a lot of Uncertainty, which we may not have info from the Fed to go on until we hear from Fed Chair Powell and some of the other Fed members.  They will meet later this month.  We're seeing that uncertainty with MBS today, as there were some wild swings in both directions; and it's currently Down 8bps.  Depending upon when the Lender came out with their pricing, then Mortgage Rates should look much like yesterday's pricing; but it's possible that it may be a little worse too.  Especially, as they may take a more conservative approach heading into a long weekend (Labor Day weekend).  Yields are climbing so far; and are just under 1.33%.  Normally, this BIG miss would have been good for both Markets, but the Uncertainty between the 2 factions are pulling money out of both Markets ahead of the long weekend!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, September 2, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/2/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims dropped about 14k from last week's report, to 340k applying for first time benefits.  Also, it was released that the Challenger Layoffs dropped by nearly 3 million and Continuing Claims dropped by about 150k.  This could set up for an interesting day tomorrow, as Investors await the Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment data from the BLS.  Meanwhile, Labor Costs final Q2 revision came in at 1.3%, which may be due to employers enticing employees to return to work; and this will create more inflation concerns ahead.  Also, Productivity's final Q2 came in at 2.1%.  Lastly, Factory Orders rose 0.4% in July.  Stocks are pretty slow today and in Mixed Territory (NASDAQ lone index in Red), as Investors await Jobs data from BLS tomorrow.  MBS is currently Up 2bps and had a few bigger swings in both directions earlier this morning; however, Mortgage Rates have remained Unchanged from yesterday's close.  Yields are sliding below it's Technical level and just a bit under 1.30%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Daily Market Report 9/1/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP was way off from it's estimates (613k) for August, which came in at 374k.  ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly rose from July to August, as it was reported at 59.9.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion/optimism.  Lastly, Construction Spending rose by 0.3% in July.  Stocks are taking it's queue from the ADP report today and all are in Positive Territory, as Bad News is Good News sentiment takes over Investors.  Why?  Because it may allow them to drink the Kool Aid a bit longer, as the Fed continues to monitor the Jobs data.  The most telling data will be released on Friday.  Meanwhile, there were some pretty wild swings this morning with MBS, as it currently sits Down 2bps.  Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged from yesterday's close (as most Lenders repriced for the worse).  Yields have dropped to just a hair under 1.31%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.