Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Happy New Years!  Hope you all have a fun, safe New Years Eve tonite!  We have a few data to report, which we'll begin with the Case Shiller HPI for October, which it rose from 3.2% to 3.3% YoY.  This is considered the "Gold Standard" index for Home Prices.  Consumer Confidence rose from 125.5 to 126.5 in December, which is another good sign for the economy.  Stocks are Down again this morning on rather light trading.  This time of year, the Big Trading Houses are typically working with skeleton crews, so we could see larger than normal swings in the Market because the Hedgefunds aren't trading to offset these types of swings.  President Trump tweeted that they will be signing the Phase One deal at the White House on January 15th.  The good news is already priced into the Stock Market.  The MBS is currently Down 6bps.  Yesterday's close had a late rally and closed Up 5bps.  Many Lenders improved their pricing in the late afternoon.  So, Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as after the price improvements in the afternoon.  Yields have inched it's way back up to 1.91% so far this morning.

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Monday, December 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Chicago PMI improved a little bit, as it went from 46.3 to 48.9 in December.  However, this still in contraction levels.  Pending Home Sales rose by 1.2% in November.  Stocks are in the Red this morning, as Investors reassess their positions in the Market.  As is the same for MBS, as it' currently Down 16bps.  Mortgage Rates are currently the same as Friday morning.  The Market improved on Friday, but most of those gains were late in the day, so Lenders didn't make any price changes.  Yields rebounded and are currently up to 1.93%.

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Friday, December 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are trading on light levels and in Mixed Territory so far this morning.  There was a report out of China that their November's Industrial Profits were Up and reversed several months of Negative Profits.  We're looking toward the signing of the Phase One Agreement sometime in January and Brexit.  Stocks have been on a pace, which it's daily breaking previous records, but it may be coming to some type of slowdown soon, as they're reaching a point that a correction may be warranted.  This could help Bonds/MBS.  MBS has had a few late mini rallies the last few days, which is helping its postioning.  It's currently Up 8bps and climbed above it's 25- and 50 DMA; and pushing up against it's 100 DMA.  You should see some slight improvement with Mortgage Rates with yesterday's late mini rally and today's improvement.  Yields have slid down to 1.88%.

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Thursday, December 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped down to 222k last week.  Still relatively quiet, in terms of news, so the Market is still monitoring the Phase One Agreement.  Both sides are expressing that it's nearly done, it's a matter of translations and other fine details before both Presidents sign, which is expected to happen in January.  Stocks are Up this morning.  MBS is Down 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as we had a nice little surge late Tuesday (closed Up 11bps).  Yields are still hanging in near unchanged levels, as it's right around 1.92%.

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Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data to report today.  Markets will close early today for Christmas and return on Thursday, which we'll see the Weekly Jobless Claims.  From now until the end of the year, we may see some swings in the Markets, as we deal with skeleton crews.  Beijing reported that they will be removing tariffs on 850 US products at the beginning of the year.   We're looking forward to learning more about the agreement and it's signing next month.  There's been some talk about N Korea's promise of a Christmas Gift, if we don't meet their demands.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday's close and Yields are down to 1.92%.  Mortgage Rates haven't changed from yesterday's pricing.  Have a very Merry Christmas!

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Monday, December 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Durable Goods Orders dropped by 2% in November, which was heavily affected by lack of Airline and Defense Goods being purchased.  When you remove autos, then it rose by 0.6%.  New Home Sales were revised lower from 733k annualized units to 710k in October.  In November it went to 719k, which it rose after the revision, but in reality, it dropped before the revision.  If you look further than the numbers, then you will know that New Home Sales are Up 17% YoY, which is what we really should be reviewing.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning on news that the CEO of Boeing resigned and that reports out of China indicate they will be either removing or lowering Tariffs on frozen pork, some high tech items and pharmaceuticals on January 1st.  MBS are currently off it's highs this morning, and currently Down 6bps.  Yields have pretty much plateaued at 1.92%.

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Friday, December 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Q3 GDP remained unchanged for it's final revision at 2.1%.  This indicates the economy is still growing at a modest pace, which is especially important due to the Trade negotiations with China during this period.  Personal Income rose by 0.5% in November.  Consumer Spending rose by 0.4% in November.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% MoM, whereas, it's YoY rose from 1.4% tp 1.5%.  The Core PCE (this is what the Fed uses when it gauges Consumer Inflation) rose only 0.1% MoM and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%.  The Fed's Target Rate is 2.0%, so this shows a very tame inflation report.  The Consumer Sentiment Index improved from 99.2 to 99.3 in December.  Stocks are still breaking new highs, so be cautious for any pull back on consolidation/profit taking.  MBS is currently Up 5bps.  Between yesterday's positive movement and today's, then some Lenders may price in Mortgage Rates a little better today.  I'd say you'd find it from Unchanged to slightly better.  Yields are currently at 1.92%.  The ceiling ahead is currently at 1.97%.  I think it's very possible that we could test it before we see any possibility of a pull back that would help MBS and Mortgage Rates.

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Thursday, December 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims are down to 235k this week from last week's report of 252k, which is a welcomed sign; but it's still a little higher than we've been seeing, so we'll definitely keep an eye on this data.  The Philly Fed dropped to 0.3 (nearly in contraction range) in December, after being as high as 10.4 in November.  Existing Home Sales fell off it's pace of 5.44 million annualized units to 5.35 million in November.  Leading Economic Indicators remained Unchanged in November.  Stocks are Up this morning, even though the House voted for Impeachment because the sentiment is it will end in the Senate and not go anywhere.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning lower (below the Fibonacci level, acting as a floor, now a ceiling) is currently Down 3bps from yesterday's close (which closed Up from it's lows and back above the Fibonacci level) -so, it's fighting to remain above the Fibonacci level.  Yields are Up to 1.93%.

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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Quiet Day in the Market today.  There are no data to report on the economic calendar today, and Geo-Political news is mostly mute.  Even though the House Vote for Impeachment Hearings is not a factor, as it's widely expected to die with the Senate, so Investors are not concerned.  Stocks are somewhat still riding the optimism from the China Trade Agreement.  There was a signal that the US may turn their attention toward the EU, as the USMCA is completed and the China Trade Agreement has been agreed.  Stocks are in Positive Territory so far this morning.  MBS is Down 27bps and below it's Floor of Support.  We'll need to watch this for any bounce back.  Mortgage Rates have worsened a bit today.  Yields have climbed Up to 1.91%.

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Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts increased to 1.365 million annualized units in November from a higher revision in October of 1.323 million.  A good forward indicator for more Housing Starts are Building Permits, which also, increased from 1.461 million annualized units to 1.482 million in November.  This is on the heels of yesterday's Home Builders Index, which measures their confidence level.  Yesterday's level was the highest in 20 years.  The Housing Starts reported today are the highest since 2007.  So, we're at a really good level!  Industrial Production picked up pace to 1.1% in November, while Capacity Utilization increased to 77.3%.  According to JOLTS Jobs Report for October, Job Openings increased from 7 million in September to 7.3 million in October.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, but showing signs of wearing down a bit with all of the recent Geo-Political news.  MBS is Up 2bps, so there's Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are slipped down to 1.88%.

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Monday, December 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There was some slight improvement in the manufacturing sector for the NY region, as the Empire State Index rose from 2.9 to 3.5 in December.  Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services industries).  The Manufacturing dropped slightly from 52.6 to 52.5 in December; while the Services rose from 51.6 to 52.2.  Meanwhile, the Home Builders Index rose from 71 to 76 in December.  Stocks are Up on the optimism from Friday's Trade announcement, which is taking investment dollars from Bonds/MBS, so MBS is Down 23bps.  This will translate to a little worse pricing for Mortgage Rates today (compared to Friday's pricing).  Also, Yields have climbed Up to 1.88%.

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Friday, December 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales disappointed in November, as forecasts called for 0.5% increase, and it just increased by 0.2%; and if you exclude Autos, then it only rose 0.1%.  Import Prices rose 0.2% in November.  Business Inventories rose by 0.2% in October.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory, as China made their own announcement of the trade agreement with the US; however, a few indexes dropped in the Red, as no specifics of the deal has been reported.  In the UK, the election results favored PM Boris Johnson, which is expected to carry out the Brexit plan, as he is expected to have the support in Parliament needed for it to be carried out.  MBS is Up 29bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday's close.  Yields have slid down to 1.83%.

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Thursday, December 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/12/29

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims came in much hotter than expected at 252k.  As I had forecasted last week, this was to be expected because last week's really low number was due to the Thanksgiving Holiday being shortened and we'd see a bit of a spillover into this week's report.  Inflation came in very tame for the Wholesale sector, as the Producer Price Index was Unchanged in November, as was it's YoY set at 1.1%.  The Core PPI (strips out the volatility from food and energy) contracted by 0.2% in November while it's YoY dropped from 1.6% to 1.3%.  Stocks are way Up this morning after a tweet by President Trump indicating that a very big deal is about to be finished with China soon.  Both the Fed and ECB were nonevents; and the Fed expects to keep the rates at same levels thru 2020 and economy is still looking good.  However, MBS started to tank on the Tweet, as money is flowing from Bonds to Equities, and is currently down about 30bps.  We're currently down around the levels on Tuesday, in terms of pricing for Mortage Rates.  Yields are skyrocketing and are currently up to 1.89%.

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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: CPI rose 0.3% in November and saw it's YoY increase from 1.8% to 2.1%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy components) rose 0.2%, as it's YoY remained Unchanged at 2.3%.  Later this morning, the Fed will wrap up their 2 day meeting and Chairman Powell will give his announcement.  The Markets will hold tight to hear from the Fed before making any swings in the Market, as Stocks currently are trading in Mixed Territory (DOW is lone index in Red).  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Up 11bps and approaching it's triple layer of resistance.  Right now, the Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, but are potentially on the cusp of Improving, but this will most likely be decided after the Fed makes their announcement.  Yields have slid down to 1.81% and sitting on it's 25 DMA.

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Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/10/19

htp://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Confidence with Small Business picked up in November, as the NFIB Small Business ticked up from 102.4 to 104.7. The final Productivity for Q3 improved from it's initial report from -0.3% to -0.2%; and the final revision for Unit Labor Costs improved from rising 3.6% as it' initial number down to it's final of 2.5%. Stocks are mostly Up, as the DOW has been dipping it's toe in both sides of the line this morning. News came out that Congress and the White House has agreed on a new USMCA, which is expected to be signed later in Mexico City. Investors are watching for any news on US and China, as the deadline for the Dec. 15th Tariffs on $156 billion Chinese goods will be implemented. It's appearing that the White House will delay these tariffs in order to progress on the Phase One Agreement with China. The FOMC begins their 2 day meeting today, as they will provide their announcement tomorrow. There are no expectations for any rate movement at this meeting. MBS is currently down 9bps, and coupled with yesterdays lows, has Mortgage Rates worsening a bit today. Yields have climbed up to 1.84%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, December 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no data to report from the Economic Calendar today. Stocks are currently Mixed, as the DOW sits as the only index in Negative territory. Investors are looking ahead, as they search for fresh info on any news on the US/China Trade Negotiations, as the date for Tariffs is this coming Sunday, the 15th. Meanwhile, we have a round of global Central Banks making their announcements this week, including our own Fed, whom begins their 2 day meeting tomorrow and make their announcement on Wednesday. Not much is expected at this meeting, but remain in Neutral territory. The ECB will have their announcement read this Thursday by their new ECB President, Christine Lagarde (former head of IMF). It was reported that China's exports dropped 1.1% in November. MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday. Yields sit at 1.82%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, December 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NonFarm Payrolls surprised everybody with their HUGE number for November, which 266k jobs were created; along with positive revisions to the prior 2 months by 41k. Forecasts called for 180k, which we thought was a stretch, but this Positive News is welcomed! The Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%, which is at a 50 year low. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% in November. Consumer Sentiment rose in December from 96.8 to 99.2. Overall, a great day! Stocks are Up on the data from this morning. Everything is pointing to progress on the Phase One Agreement between US and China. MBS is currently Down 3bps, even though it started the much lower. Same for yesterday, which leads to Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing. Yields continue it's rise, which it's sitting around 1.83% now. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, December 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 203k (a 7 month low) for last week. Of course, last week was a holiday shortened week for Thanksgiving, so take it with a grain of salt. Factory Orders rose by 0.3% in October (exceeding the 0.2% forecasts). Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory, but shortly after, they turned Negative. There were more positive comments about the US/China Trade Deal, as the Chinese Ministry commented that their representatives are closely working with the US; and President Trump reiterated the optimism during his visit with Chancellor Merkel yesterday. But Investors are tiring of the back-and-forth rhetoric and may be taking a "let's see" approach. Meanwhile, MBS is currently down 11bps, so Mortgage Rates have slightly worsened. However, they may rebound a bit tomorrow, if the Jobs data don't meet the forecast of 180k, which is a bit of a stretch. Of course, if an Agreement has been reached between the US/China, then all bets are off. Yields have risen to 1.80% now. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment Report disappointed today, as it reported only 67k new jobs for November and a revised lowered number (by 4k) in October's numbers. The Markit Services PMI remained Unchanged at 51.6 in November; while, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 54.7% to 53.9% in November. However, Stocks are Up this morning on a report by Bloomberg that the US and China are closer to a Phase One Deal despite all of the rhetoric. This news is superseding the poor jobs data today. Meanwhile, MBS is Down 8bps, and if you factor yesterday's close (well off from yesterday's highs of +42bps) at +25bps, then Lenders will tend to price Mortgage Rates a little worse today. Yields are clawing their way back and have reached 1.77%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We don't have any data from the Economic Calendar today; however, tomorrow will kick off with the first of 3 Jobs data to be released this week with the ADP Report. Stocks are heavily in the Red today, as comments by President Trump regarding a Chinese Trade Agreement happening any time soon is souring the Markets; along with more Tariff talk (not only Argentina/Brazil from yesterday's reports, but also upcoming Tariffs on Chinese goods on Dec. 15th, and EU for illegal subsidies to AirBus. MBS is rallying on this news, as it's Up 42bps, so Mortgage Rates improve. Yields have fallen all the way down to 1.70% (below all of it's previous floors of support). Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, December 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have 2 manufacturing indexes to report today. The first is the Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly rose from 52.2 to 52.6 in November; however, the ISM Manufacturing Index (the "gold" standard and carries more weight) dropped from 48.3% to 48.1%. Anything below 50 is considered Contraction. Construction Spending continued it's decline, as it dropped 0.8% in October. Stocks started the morning in Positive territory on positive manufacturing out of China, but quickly dropped (DOW and NASDAQ both are down over 100) on the Manufacturing Data, and possible Trade Concerns (now with Brazil and Argentina). MBS is Down 16bps and dropped below all of it's Support levels. Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit, as a result. This is due to an article that published a comment by Fed Chair Powell that he is willing to allow inflation to heat up a bit, which does not bode well for MBS/Bonds. This is because inflation is it's worst enemy, as it devalues the MBS/Bonds value over time. Yields have spiked to 1.83% and above all of it's resistance levels. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims scaled back from the previous reporting to 213k people applying for first time benefits.  The GDP's 2nd revision for the Q3 came in a little higher, from 1.9% to 2.1%.  We'll see the final revision next month!  Durable Goods Orders (including the data without Transportation) rose 0.6% in October, as many expected another decline.  The manufacturing in the Chicago region improved a little, even though it's still in contraction territory, as the Chicago PMI came in from 43.2 to 46.3 in November.  Personal Income remained Unchanged in October; however, Consumer Spending rose 0.3%, wihich hopefully is a good indicator heading into the Holiday Season!  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% in October, while it's YoY remained at 1.3%; however the Core PCE (without Food or Energy, and the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation) rose 0.1%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6% -The Fed is targeting for a 2.0% rate!  Pending Home Sales dropped 1.7% in October, which NAR attributed it to lack of inventory and slightly higher rates in October from previous month.  Stocks are in Positive Territory based on today's data.  MBS is Down 14bps, so Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit today.  Yields have climbed it's way Up to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller HPI rose in September from 3.1% to 3.2%.  Consumer Confidence slightly slipped from 125.9 to 125.5 in November.  Forecasts were calling for an increase to 128.2.  New Home Sales had a large revisions to it's September numbers, going from 701k to 738k, which technically, it dropped to 733k in October based on the revision.  This will most likely be misconstrued in the Media into some negative news, but don't be misled with the misinformation.  Stocks continue to climb on preliminary agreement to a Phase One between the US and China.  Also, Fed Chair Powell had optimistic view of the US economy last night, which is sticking well with investors.  The good news is that MBS is also rising, and is currently Up 6bps.  Couple that with yesterday's late rally close Up 16bps), which Improves pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have fallen below it's 50 DMA and currently sits a bit under 1.74%.

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Monday, November 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data for the Calendar today, but there will be bunch of important data crammed into the next 2 days.  This week will be a holiday shortened week, which our last report for this week will be Wednesday.  Stocks are Up this morning on optimism of a US / China Trade Deal potentially set for a Phase One by end of year.  Reports by both sides indicated this optimism; and China has sent out a memo on protecting Intellectual Property, which has been a sticking point with the US; along with more agriculture purchases.  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are fighting to stay above it's 50 DMA and currently sit at 1.76%.

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Friday, November 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment grew to 96.8 (from  95.7) in November.  Also, Markit Manufacturing PMI flash rose from 51.3 to 52.2 in November.  The other Markit report is on the Services Industry, which is the Markit Non-Manufacturing PMI flash, which rose from 50.9 tp 51.6.  Both indexes indicate expansion, as they're above 50 (anything below 50 is considered contraction with these reports).  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as both Presidents Xi and Trump indicated a Trade deal is very close.  The Markit PMI data out of Europe was very poor, as UK is still in Contraction territory, while EU is teetering on Contraction.  MBS is Up 2bps and still trying to break above it's Fibonacci level, which is proving to be very strong.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged. Yields are still sitting between it's ceiling of 100 DMA/Fibonacci and floor of 50 DMA.  It's currently at 1.76%  We may want to pay close attention to the Stochastic Chart, as it's showing a possible Trend Reversal.  Be cautious, if you're floating any transactions that the rates are not locked!

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Thursday, November 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Weekly Jobless Claims were a little higher this week than expectations with 227k applying for first time benefits.  The Philly Fed Index rose from 5.6 to 10.4 in November.  This index measures the manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  Existing Home Sales improved from 5.36 million annualized units to to 5.46 million.  Also, Leading Indicators show the economy to gradually slow down, which it contracted by 0.1% in October.  Stocks are in Negative Territory as pessimism lingers for a China/US Trade Agreement.  We have mixed reports today, which China's Vice Premier invited US delegates over for face-to-face meetings and painted an optimistic tone to negotiations.  However, Reuters reported that any agreement wouldn't carry over until 2020, and Congress passed a Human Rights for Hong Kong Bill, which is set for the President to sign.  This latter part, may create more tensions with China, as they will view this measure as US interference into their Domestic Policy.  MBS is Down about 2bps and just lingering under it's Fibonacci Level.  Yields started the morning lower and rose above it's 100 DMA and was stopped by it's next ceiling at the Fibonacci Level.  It's sitting at 1.76%.

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Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today's rather quiet, in terms of reports being released.  Only the FOMC Minutes will be released later this morning.  It may not have as much impact on the Market today, as Fed Chair Powell spoke before Congress last week.  Meanwhile, Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Investors continue to grow weary over any possibility of a US/China Phase One Agreement any time soon.  However, there were a number of positive Corporate Earnings Reports that are helping the Markets.  MBS is currently Up 6bps.  When you build upon the steady growth over past few days, Mortgage Rates will show some Improvement in today's pricing.  It should be comparable to what we saw on Monday morning.  Yields continue to slide lower, as it tries to stay above it's last floor of support at the 50 DMA.  It currently sits at 1.75%.

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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts improved in October, rising from 1.266 million annualized units in September to 1.314 million in October.  The Building Permits (a good forward view of Housing Starts) increased to a 12 year high, which it went from 1.391 million annualized units in September to 1.461 million in October.  The good part of this data is the increase in Single Family Homes.  Stocks are Down this morning and growing doubt over a US-China Trade deal happening before the December 15th Deadline (for more Tariffs).  Also, Home Depot and Kohls sales disappointed.  MBS is currently Up 5bps.  However, MBS closed only +5bps yesterday, well off of it's highs when pricing came out.  So, Lenders whom had an intraday price change yesterday for the worse, then they'll price today about the same as yesterday's close.  Those whom held off on a change in pricing will see it in today's pricing.  Yields are trying to hold above it's Quadruple floor of support.  It's currently below it's 25- and 100 DMA and sitting just on it's Fibonacci.  It's just a hair under 1.79% now.

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Monday, November 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Home Builders Index, which measures the confidence level of Home Builders, slid from 71 to 70 in November.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as pessimism grows on any US-China Trade Deal happening any time soon.  MBS is currently Up 19bps and fighting to stay above it's Fibonacci level, and rose above it's 25-, 50- and 100 DMA.  Yields are Down to 1.80% and sitting on a Triple layer of Support at 25-, 100 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates did improve today.

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Friday, November 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales Improved by 0.3% in October; and when you exclude Autos, then it only rose 0.1%.  Import Prices rose 0.2% in October.  Empire State Index, which measures the Manufacturing sector in NY region, dropped from 4.0 to 2.9 in November.  Industrial Production slipped 0.8% in October.  Capacity Utilization fell to 76.7% in October, which is at a 2 year low.  Meanwhile, Business Inventories remain Unchanged in September.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Retail Sales data and clinging to any hope of an announcement of a US/China Trade Agreement.  They're trying to justify the New Highs in the Indexes, but they're growing impatient.  MBS is Down 5bps this morning and is sitting above the 25- and 100 DMA, but right up against the 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged this morning.  Yields are currently sitting around 1.83%.

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Thursday, November 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rose to a 5 month high last week, as 225k people filed for Unemployment.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose higher than expected in October by 0.4%, which forecasts called for 0.3%.  However, it's YoY dropped from 1.4% to 1.1%.  Like it's counter-part, the Core PPI (excluding food and energy), it exceeded it's October forecast of 0.2%, and came in at 0.3%.  Also, it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.6%.  Stocks are in the Red today, as Investors grow weary of a US/China Trade Agreement.  Fed Chair Powell will begin his 2nd day of speaking with Congress today; and other Fed Members will be out today with their Speaking Engagements.  MBS is currently Up 19bps, as Mortgage Rates improve; however, it's up against a very tough triple layer of resistance (the 25-, 50- and 100 DMA lie just above it).  Yields have slipped down to 1.83%, and is coming close to reaching it's floor of support, which is currently the 100 DMA.

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October; and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.2% in October; however, it YoY dropped from 2.4% to 2.3%.  Stocks are Down this morning after being disappointed in President Trump's speech yesterday, as they didn't feel that they received any of the information that they were seeking.  Also, to add fire to the fuel, Fed Chair Powell's statements to Congress was released before his Testimony, which disappointed Investors even more, as he stated that we shouldn't expect any more rate cuts based on the current levels in the economy, unless there were a severe deterioration.  MBS is benefiting from this, as they're Up 14bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates will see a slight improvement in their pricing.  Yields have slid under it's Fibonacci and resides at 1.88%.

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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which is an index that measures the confidence level with Small Businesses, rose from 101.8 to 102.4 in October.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as they await a speech from President Trump today.  It's anticipated that he'll speak on Tariffs and Trade.  We'll have a few Fed Members speaking today, but lately, there hasn't been any Market moving comments by any of the Members.  MBS is currently Down 5pbs and is floating in "No Man's" land between it's new floor of support (Fibonacci level) and ceiling of resistance (100 DMA).  Yields are still just above it's Fibonacci and just a hair below 1.95%. Mortgage Rates haven't changed since Friday's pricing.

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Friday, November 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment rose slightly from 95.5 to 95.7, which was better than expectations of it dropping to 95.0.  Wholesale Inventories dropped 0.4% in September.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory today, as President Trump stated that he didn't authorize any roll-back on Tariffs, per comments made out of China yesterday.  If you may recall, there were reports that China stated that Tariffs will be rolled back as part of Phase 1 of the agreement.  The US never acknowledged an agreement, but reports in the US that there were internal debates around these comments.  The Markets cooled off later in the afternoon.  MBS had a brutal day yesterday, after touching the low point of September 13th, which was approximately down 72bps, to close down 41bps.  This morning, it 's currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates are approximately the same position that we started the day yesterday, or very slightly worse.  Yields are trying to stay above it's current Fibonacci and sitting at 1.92%.

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Thursday, November 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims came in lower this last week (from the previous of 219k) to 211k.  Stocks are taking off a bit this morning on news out of China that the US and them have agreed to cancel tariffs in phases.  There has not yet been any response from the US yet, but investors are running with it.  As the money flows from MBS/Bonds to Equities, then MBS has really taken a nosedive this morning, and is down about 53bps.  It's dropped below it's 100 DMA and approaching it's next level of support (Fibonacci level at 100.734).  Yields have skyrocketed.  They've broken above it's Fibonacci and sit at 1.93%.

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Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Productivity slipped by 0.3% in Q3, as forecast called for an increase of 0.6%.  Unit Labor Costs rose 3.6% in Q3, which was much higher than expectations of 2.5%.  Stocks are in the Red this morning after reaching new highs again yesterday.  They seem to be searching for a new catalyst, as Q3 Corporate Earnings winds down.  This may be a prelude to a correction, which may benefit MBS.  Speaking of MBS, it's currently Up 16bps.  This will put pricing to about where we started yesterday morning, as it worsened yesterday by closing down 37bps.  Yields are down a little bit to 1.84%.  There will be  10 year Note Auction later today which could influence the Markets, as Investors will decide if they have an appetite for Treasuries.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have 2 reports on the Services Industry.  The Markit Services PMI showed a decline from 51.0 to 50.6 in October; whereas, the ISM Non Manufacturing Index rose from 52.6% to 54.7%.  The ISM is considered the "Gold Standard" for Economists and Investors.  Stocks are moving slowly in Mixed Territory after reaching New Highs yesterday.  The driver today is China's request for the US to roll back on their September Tariffs, along with the upcoming December Tariffs.  Reports have the US considering the proposition and have Investors optimistic.  The Q3 Earnings Reports and Fed Speakers continue this week.  MBS is way down this morning, down 30bps and sitting just atop it's 100 DMA, after breaking thru it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Meanwhile, Yields skyrocked above it's Fibonacci and 100 DMA and stitting at 1.86%.  This was it's previous high last week.  Let's see if it holds!

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Monday, November 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders dropped 0.6% in September, which is the only report on the Calendar today.  Tomorrow will give us some insight into the Services Industry with the ISM Services Index.  Stocks are Up this morning on progress being made with China, which Phase 1 is being scheduled for both leaders to sign at a location to be determined.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to do well.  There are a few Fed Members scheduled to speak today, and the rest of this week.  MBS is currently down 11bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today from Friday's pricing.  Yields are trying to push back above it's Fibonnaci level, which sits at 1.779%.

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Friday, November 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS released their Jobs data, which we'll start with the Non-Farm Payrolls for October.  We saw 128k new jobs with expectations set at 75k.  On top of that, the previous 2 months were revised higher by another 95k.  The Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%, as the Labor Participation Rate increased from 63.2% to 63.3%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2%.  So, overall, the Jobs data came in very well!.  On the otherhand, Manufacturing is still struggling, as the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.5 to 51.3 and ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 47.8% to 48.3% (missing expectations and in contraction side of the data).  Construction Spending rose by 0.5% in September.  Stocks are Up on the strong Jobs data while Q3 Earnings Reports continue to roll-in.  MBS is currently down 8bps, but had a nice rally yesterday.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are fighting it's way back above the 25 DMA, and are currently sitting at 1.72%.

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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Happy Halloween!  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 218k last week; and the previous week's data was revised higher by 1k (to 213k).  The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 0.7% in Q3.  This index can be a good indicator of inflation in the employment category.  Luckily, it was very tame.  The Personal Income rose 0.5% in September; while it's counter-part, the Consumer Spending rose 0.2%.  Inflation fell in September, as the PCE dropped from 1.4% to 1.3%; and the Core PCE dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, and their Target rate is 2.0%, so we're below it.  Manufacturing worsened in the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI further contracted from 47.1 to 43.2 in October.  Anything below 50 is considered Contraction Territory; as anything above, is considered Expansion.  Stocks are down this morning on news that an Chinese Official expressed doubts that a long-term deal can be done.  President Trump tweeted that they are on schedule to sign the first phase of the agreement and name a new location to meet, as it was cancelled in Chile due to ongoing riots, next month.  MBS has really rallied these past 2 days, which they're Up 23bps so far this morning; breaking above it's 100-, 25- and 50- DMA.  Mortgage Rates received a nice boost.  Yields have tumbled all the way down to about 1.70% now.

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Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment reported 125k new jobs for October, which is up from 93k in September; however, September was revised lower by 42k from it's initial report.  The Q3 GDP dropped slightly from it's annual pace of 2.0% to 1.9%, which is better than expectations of 1.6%.  This is pretty good, as the Trade Negotiations have been taking a toll on our economy, and slowing many industries.  The FOMC will wrap up their 2 day meeting today and provide their announcement at 11am PST, then Fed Chair Powell will have his press conference at 11:30 am PST.  It is widely expected that the Fed will cut it's Fed Funds Rate by a 0.25% for the 3rd time this year..  Investor will heavily listen to the Fed today, as they will gauge any further hikes and the Fed's thoughts.  Many are thinking that the US and China talks are progressing, then the Fed may hold on further cuts.  They need to hold some ammo, if/when we reach an recession; otherwise, there's not too many tools to help stimulate an economy available.  Stocks are moving in Mixed Territory, as they've been dipping their toes (in all 3 indices) in both Positive and Negative Territory this morning ahead of the FOMC Announcement.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to come in relatively good on lower expectations.  MBS is Up 16bps, so Mortgage Rates are better this morning.  Be careful today, because if the Fed says anything inflationary, then it could reverse very quickly, as the greatest enemy to MBS is inflation.  Mortgage Rates and Fed Funds Rate don't always move in same direction.  When there are Fed cuts, then many times, Mortgage Rates rise due to concerns of inflation.  Yields are trying to stay above it's 100 DMA, but are currently just underneath at 1.81%.  It's next level is the Fibonacci, which may be strong, as it was holding as a ceiling for many tries to break above.

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Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller HPI improved from 3.1% YoY in July to 3.2% YoY in August.  This is a direct correlation, as to when interest rates began to dip, which helped Housing Prices.  The Consumer Confidence Index dropped a little, from 126.3 to 125.9 in October.  Pending Home Sales continue to improve, as it increased 1.5% in October from the previous month.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ is alone in the Red this morning.  Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports continue to dictate the Markets. Today is the start of the FOMC's 2 day meeting, which they will provide their statement tomorrow at 11:15am PST.  It is widely expected they will cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% for the 3rd consecutive meeting.  MBS rebounded slightly to +2bps.  Yesterday, it closed higher than it's lows.  Coupled with that improvement, Mortgage Rates will see a slight improvement in their pricing today.  Yields are still hanging around the 1.85% level.

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Monday, October 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are Up this morning on more positive Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports.  It's been reported that the US and China are nearing completion some sections of an Agreement.  Also, the UK received their extension for Brexit until end of the year.  MBS is Down 20bps, which will lead to Mortgage Rates to rise a bit today.  Yields have spiked above it's 100 DMA (and above the Fibonacci level on Friday's close), which they're currently sitting at 1.85%.

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Friday, October 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment dropped a little in October, from 96.0 to 95.5.  Stocks are Up this morning.  Still taking it's lead from Q3 Earnings Reports.  In general of those that have reported, about 75% to 80% have hit or exceeded expectations.  EU is still working on a path for Brexit after Macron voted against an extension to the UK.  China has asked the US to cut planned Tariffs in which they'll buy more agriculture. Next week will be a full week with Jobs data and the FOMC.  MBS is Up 5bps and still running parallel to the 100 DMA, as it's trying to climb above it.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are also trying to climb above it's Fibonacci level and sitting at 1.77%.

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Thursday, October 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 218k (was revised higher by 4k) to 212k.  Durable Goods Orders dropped by 1.1% in September and dropped by 0.3% when you exclude Transportation.  New Home Sales dropped from 706k (was revised lower from 712k, which was a 12 year high) in August to 701k in September.  YoY it is up 15.5%.  Yet the Media is portraying and manipulating this data to make it sound bad!  Go figure!  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash rose from 51.1 to 51.5 in October; while it's counter-part, Markit Services PMI flash rose from 50.9 to 51.0.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory, but currently the DOW shifted into Negative Territory.  Today is a big day for Q3 Corporate Earnings, which a few big companies missed their numbers.  Today was the final Policy Meeting for Mario Draghi, whom will be replaced next week by Christing Lagarde, whom was former head of IMF.  She could change policy and make it less accomodating and spark Global Yields.  If this occurs, then it could add pressure to MBS and raise Rates.  Germany is still struggling, as an economy.  Their Manufacuring PMI, which was a decade low at 41.7 to 41.9 (well into contraction levels).  MBS is trying to break above the 100 DMA and is currently Up 6bps, but it's not enough to change Mortgage Rates pricing today, as they remain Unchanged.  Yields are near the same levels at 1.75%.

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Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FHFA Home Price Index rose only 0.2% MoM in August, which it's YoY dropped from 5.0% to 4.6%.  This index factors homes with conforming loan limits.  Stocks started the early trading in the Red, but the DOW has since broke into Positive Territory.  There were a few disappointing reports that came out today, which is what's driving the Market today.  Also, the UK Parliament voted against the new Brexit Agreement, so most likely the EU will extend the departure until end of the year.  MBS is currently Up 8bps.  Coupled with yesterday's gains, then Mortgage Rates will price out a little better this morning.  It's approaching the 100 DMA and may make a position to try and fight it's way back above it.  Yields have slid down to 1.74% and below it's Fibonacci level.  As I mentioned the last 2 days, it appears that the Stochastic charts are indicating a possible trend reversal, which will help improve bonds and Mortgage Rates.  We'll need to continue watching this, as it could potentially move in a sideways pattern.

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Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales dropped a bit in September, going from 5.49 million annualized units to 5.38 million in September.  We will receive the New Home Sales on Thursday.  Investors will be primarily watching the Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports, which have (for the most part) been pleasant.  The talks between US and China have been at a slow pace, so Investors will spend more time the Q3 Reports.  MBS is currently Up 6bps.  We had a price adjustment yesterday, which led to Mortgage Rates to rise a bit.  Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's close, but slightly higher than yesterday's open.  The MBS broke below it's 100 DMA, but we may get some relief soon, based on the Stochastic Graph, which shows a possible Trend Reversal.  Meanwhile, Yields have pulled back slightly to 1.77% and sitting at it's Fibonacci level.

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Monday, October 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There is no economic data to report today, which will be a relatively light week for it.  We'll receive data on the Existing Home Sales tomorrow.  Stocks are in Mixed territory, as the DOW has been bouncing between Positive and Negative Territory this morning.  The US and China are working their way thru a Phase 1 portion of a Partial Trade Agreement.  UK Politics is forcing the PM to request another 3 months extension from the EU regarding Brexit.  We're in the middle of the Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports, which have been fairly decent.  MBS is trying to fight it's way back above it's 100 DMA.  It's currently down 9bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, but very close to worsening.  If it cannot rise above the 100 DMA, then it has another 50bps space to drop further, which will translate to approximately .25% interest rate increase.  Yields are fighting to break above it's Fibonacci level and is sitting at 1.78%.

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Friday, October 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Leading Economic Indicators continue to decline, which it's MoM into September dropped 0.1%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory this morning on bad economic news out of China, which shows their Economy slowing more rapidly than anticipated.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to report decent reports, which pleases the Investors; and various Fed Members continue with their speeches.  MBS has been trending lower and have been pushing against it's floor of support at the 100 DMA, which has been a strong support.  It's currently Unchanged from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates (also) remain Unchanged.  Like it's counter-part, Yields have been pushing up against it's Ceiling of Resistance, which is a Fibonacci level.  This level has been very strong.  It's currently sitting at 2.75%.  I'm watching the stochastic charts, which may indicate a near trend reversal.  It's not clear yet, but it does look like there may be a possibility.

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Thursday, October 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 214k, which this week's data is important, as it's being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of it's Job Numbers.  The numbers for both Housing Starts and Building Permits look on the surface a bit disappointing, but they're not as bad as they appear.  I'll explain.  Augusts numbers for both indexes were revised a little higher; also, the drop-off in both indexes were due to a decline in Multi-Families, whereas, single families were up a little bit.  If you dig a little deeper into the numbers, then it's not THAT bad!  So, Housing Starts dropped from the revised 1.39 million to 1.26 million.  Building Permits dropped from 1.43 million to 1.39 million.  Philly Fed, which measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia region, dropped from 12.0 to 5.6 in October.  Industral Production declined 0.4% in September.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.9% to 77.5% in October.  Stocks are Up in early trading today.  We've been seeing fairly decent Q3 Earnings Reports thus far, even though it's relatively early in the releases.  There was an announcement that there may be a Brexit Deal in the works, which will still need to be voted by both sides' voting member.  The US and China are working out the language in Phase 1 of their Trade, as the US postponed the increase in Tariffs the other day, which China will increase their Agricultural products (estimated between $40-$50 Billion).  However, there is a Bill being introduced in the Senate that will look into a Review in Hong Kongs status, as they enjoy special treatment in terms of visas, tariffs, etc...  This is thought of being abused by the Chinese.  The Chinese has threatened to retaliate, if this Bill passes.  There are a few Fed Members speaking today, but there hasn't been any Market moving comments made by anybody.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are at 1.76%.

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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  September was not kind to Retail Sales, as they report a contraction of 0.3% in September; and when you exclude big ticket items, like Autos, then they dropped 0.1%.  This report increased the likelyhood of the Fed cutting rates at it's next FOMC from 78% to 90% chance.  Business Inventories remain unchanged MoM in August.  However, today's bright spot, lies with the Home Builder's Index, which measures the confidence level for Home Builders.  It jumped from 68 to 71 in October, which is a 20 month high. Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released, which will give us a more Micro-Economic viewpoint of the US Economy.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on recent bills passed by the US House of Representatives that take aim at support for the Hong Kong Protests, which will likely lead to China's ire.  Also, the Fed has begun a form of QE by buying $65 Billion of short-term Treasuries per month in order to create more liquidity and flatten out the Yield Curve.  This was first reported by BofJ last month, in order to protect it's Banking system.  There will be a few Fed Members speaking again today.  Also, more Q3 Corporate Earnings will be released, which will include Netflix, which many investors are awaiting.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 11bps, which may lead to Lenders to provide better pricing on Mortgage Rates, compared to where we closed yesterday.  There was a weakening in the Market yesterday, so Rates worsened in the late morning (PST).  Yields are down only 1bps to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing improved a bit in the NY region in September, as the Empire State Index rose from 2.0 in August to 4.0.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as we begin the Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports.  Today, we're seeing the Financial Sector, which seems to be a bit Mixed.  We have a few Fed Members speaking today, so we'll be listening for insight into the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is currently Down 8bps, after starting the morning higher.  Mortgage Rates on the West Coast should be about the same as what we saw on Friday's close, while East Coast may see a price change for the Worst, as the start was much higher.  Yields are currently sitting at 1.76% and going up against it's next ceiling (the Fibonacci level) after surpassing it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Friday, October 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment improved in October rising from 93.2 to 96.0.  Stocks are getting a huge lift this morning on optimism for a US and China Trade Deal, as President Trump tweeted that it's going very well and he's meeting the Vice Premier today.  Also, there is some optimism in the UK after a meeting between Ireland and England on a path from the EU may be feasible afterall.  Later today, there will be a few Fed Members speaking, including Fed Member Rosengren, whom is 1 of 3 dissenters from the last FOMC.  MBS is continuing it's downward trend, as Investment dollars flow from the safe haven of bonds to equities.  MBS is down another 31bps (after closing down 37bps yesterday).  Mortgage Rates have risen as a result.  Yields are storming up the chart, and are currently at 1.75%.

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Thursday, October 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from last week's 220k number to 210k, which is a good sign for Jobs.  Also, on the agenda is Consumer Inflation by the way of Consumer Price Index, which remained Unchanged from the previous month (MoM); and it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  When you remove the Food and Energy data, then you have the Core CPI.  It rose only 0.1% MoM, but it's YoY remained unchanged at 2.4%.  This bode well for investors because they believe it will make it easier for the Fed to continue cutting rates because inflation remains under control.  Stocks are Up again this morning, as optimistic sentiment continues with China's visit to the US today to start the Trade Negotiatoins.  There are several things by both sides whom are trying to diffuse the standoff and move in a positive direction.  There are a few Fed Members  whom will be speaking today, so Investors will look for clues to the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates have risen a bit.  They're testing it's double floor of support (50- and 25 DMA).  While Yields have climbed to 1.64% and pushing Up against it's 50 DMA.

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Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a pretty slow day today, as we only have the FOMC Minutes being released later this morning (around 11am PST).  Stocks are rebounding this morning on new optimism between US and China Trade negotiations.  Reports are coming out that we may have a limited deal coming soon.  So, this is boosting stocks!  MBS is Down 9bps so far, after 2 days of testing it's ceiling and close in negative territory.  Stochastic Chart indicates possible trend reversal, which we have some room with MBS until we hit a double floor (25- and 50 DMA) of support.  Yields have climbed back up to 1.56%.

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Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which gauges the confidence with Small Businesses, dropped from 103.1 to 101.8.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation with the Wholesale Sector, dropped 0.3% MoM, which it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.4%.  The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also dropped 0.3% MoM in September.  It's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.0%.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as Investors are concerned over possible heightened tensions before the upcoming meeting between US and China.  Yesterday, it was announced that the US will Blacklist 28 companies for Human Rights Violations to Muslim Minorities in China.  Also, Bloomberg is reporting that the Trump Administration is proceeding with discussions on restrictions of investment flows into China, especially with Pension Plans.  MBS is Up 11bps this morning.  However, yesterday (around Mid-day) the Market turned and closed -8bps.  Mortgage Rates (today) will be comparable to what we saw on Friday.  Yields started the day higher, but has slid down to 1.51%.

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Monday, October 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  The Stock Market is Down this morning on the disappointing data from last week and not feeling too optimistic ahead of this week's China/US trade negotiations, as reports are coming out that China is looking for a limited negotiation, not a full one.  So, nothing may happen this week.  MBS is Up 11bps and is currently above it's Fibonacci line.  We're approaching the same level in early September before bonds fell.  Yields are also up, which they're currently at 1.54%.

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Friday, October 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS' Non-Farm Payroll produced 136k jobs for September, which is down from 168k in August, and below it's forecast of 150k.  However, there was an upward revision of 45k jobs for the previous 2 months, which brought the 3 month average of 157k jobs.  This helped with Investors Sentiment.  Also, the Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5% (lowest since 1969).  The Average Hourly Earnings remained Unchanged in September, which it's Yearly Average dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%.  This data may assist the Fed with their thoughts at it's next FOMC on possible Rate Cuts, as this data suggests less stress on Inflationary numbers.  Stocks are in Positive Territory after a rough week.  It's been a week of Data driven sentiment, which has been disappointing, and would have been disappointing today, if not for the revision to the prior 2 months Jobs data.  MBS is Up 11bps and right up to it's next resistance level.  Meanwhile, Yields continue downward and are sitting at 1.52% this morning.

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Thursday, October 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims rose from 215k (which was revised higher from 213k) to 219k.  Tomorrow will the the BLS' September Jobs Report, which will have an Impact on the Market.  To continue with the Economic Calendar, the next 2 reports are on the Services Industry.  The Markit Services PMI remained unchanged from it's August to September data at 50.9.  However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index had a sharp drop from 56.4% to 52.6%.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion, and the ISM is a more closely watched report between the 2.  Factory Orders dropped 0.1% in August.  Stocks have continued their downward trend this morning on more poor economic data (ISM Services), which started the trend earlier this week on poor manufacturing and disappointing ADP data.  MBS is benefitting from the Stocks demise, as Investors are moving their investment dollars to flight of quality, and is currently Up 16bps.  It is sitting just below it's next overhead resistance.  Also, Yields are trending downward and currently resides at 1.55%.

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Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment Report only reminded investors on a contracting economy that we're now facing.  It's August numbers were revised lower by 38k, which went from 195k to 157k.  In September, it came in lower than expectations at 135k.  Most were expecting around 152k.  This bad news, coupled with yesterdays very bad data from ISM has Stocks plummeting.  The DOW is down more than 400 points this morning, and NASDAQ is down more than 100 points.  This is helping to push up MBS, as a flight to safety.  MBS is Up 16bps so far this morning.  Mortgage Rates are better this morning, however, some Lenders may be priced the same, as they may have priced their Rates around yesterday's high.  Yields continue it's decline and sit at 1.60%.

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Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing PMI rose just a tad in September, which it moved from 51.0 to 51.1.  However, the more important index, ISM Manufacturing Index went further into contraction mode in September, as it dropped from 49.1% to 47.8%.  This news further induced more worries over looming recession talk.  Meanwhile, Construction Spending rose only 0.1% in August.  Stocks were trading in Positive Territory to start the morning, as the Bank of Japan announced they'll pull back on their purchases of Bonds in an effort to strengthen their Banking System and boost Consumer Sentiment.  However, the Markets turned Negative after the ISM data was released.  China is celebrating it's 70th Anniversary of the People's Republic this week.  MBS had started in the hole this morning, and thus skyrocketed after the ISM news, and is currently Up 23bps.  Mortgage Rates have Improved today.  Meanwhile, Yields skyrocketed earlier in trade on news of BoJ, but quickly readjusted on the ISM data (breaking below it's 25 DMA).  It currently sits at 1.62%.

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Monday, September 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the Chicago region contracted, per the Chicago PMI, in September.  It dropped from 50.4 to 47.1.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as an announcement by the Treasury eased concerns, that were raised by a report on Bloomberg, that the Trump Administration is looking to limit the amount of Chinese companies wanting to list themselves on the US Exchanges.  The Treasury denied any plans of this nature.  MBS is currently fighting it's way above a double layer of resistance of the 25- and 50 DMA, and is currently Up 5bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  This could change, as we appear to be facing a Breakout that could push MBS in one directin or another.  Treasuries are Up 1bps, and sit at 1.68% while it's approaching it's 25 DMA.

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Friday, September 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of data on the Economic Calendar today, so we'll start with the Durable Goods Orders for August, which rose 0.2% (higher than forecast of -0.7%); and if you remove Transportation, then it rose 0.5%.  Personal Income rose 0.4% in August, while Consumer Spending rose only 0.1%.  The PCE remain unchanged MoM in Aug., and YoY at 1.4%; however, the Core PCE rose 0.1% MoM and it's YoY rose from 1.7% (revised higher from 1.6%) to 1.8% -drawing closer to Fed's goal of 2.0% Target Rate.  Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 93.2 after a brief dip to 92.0 in September.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Investors watch more developing news on US/China Trade and Impeachment Inquiry.  China has indicated they will purchase more US Goods, and they set a date of Oct. 10-11 in DC for their next rounds of negotiations with the higher levels.  There is some concern that President Trump won't extend the timeframe for US businesses to deal with China's Huawei, which may lead to more tensions between the 2 nations.  The Impeachment inquiry has moved toward the backburner, as we've been through these types of obstacles and nothing seems imminent.  A few Fed Speakers will be out speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 5bps and moving sideways, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have climbed Up slightly to 1.70%.

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Thursday, September 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from last week's report to 213k.  However, last week's report was revised higher by 2k (from 208k to 210k).  Last week's report is important because it will be used as part of the BLS' Jobs report due October 4th.  This low number should help to show a strong Jobs report for September.  Also, the GDP provided it's final revision for Q2, which remained the same at 2.0%.  Pending Home Sales jumped up 1.6% in August, which we saw an uptick in purchases out west.  The lower interest rates are helping home buyers, as it improves their Affordability.  Stocks are Down this morning, as the Impeachment Talk takes center stage.  Yesterday, it was placed on the back burner, as investors became more optimistic over a possible US/China Trade Deal to be completed soon.  Like yesterday, there will be several Fed Members speaking throughout the day.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but Mortgage Rates will be the same as we closed yesterday.  Yesterday, we closed down 33bps.  Lenders whom didn't re-price for the worst, then will price it in today.  Yields are down a bit, as they currently sit slightly under 1.69%.

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