Thursday, October 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/17/19  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 214k, which this week's data is important, as it's being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of it's Job Numbers.  The numbers for both Housing Starts and Building Permits look on the surface a bit disappointing, but they're not as bad as they appear.  I'll explain.  Augusts numbers for both indexes were revised a little higher; also, the drop-off in both indexes were due to a decline in Multi-Families, whereas, single families were up a little bit.  If you dig a little deeper into the numbers, then it's not THAT bad!  So, Housing Starts dropped from the revised 1.39 million to 1.26 million.  Building Permits dropped from 1.43 million to 1.39 million.  Philly Fed, which measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia region, dropped from 12.0 to 5.6 in October.  Industral Production declined 0.4% in September.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.9% to 77.5% in October.  Stocks are Up in early trading today.  We've been seeing fairly decent Q3 Earnings Reports thus far, even though it's relatively early in the releases.  There was an announcement that there may be a Brexit Deal in the works, which will still need to be voted by both sides' voting member.  The US and China are working out the language in Phase 1 of their Trade, as the US postponed the increase in Tariffs the other day, which China will increase their Agricultural products (estimated between $40-$50 Billion).  However, there is a Bill being introduced in the Senate that will look into a Review in Hong Kongs status, as they enjoy special treatment in terms of visas, tariffs, etc...  This is thought of being abused by the Chinese.  The Chinese has threatened to retaliate, if this Bill passes.  There are a few Fed Members speaking today, but there hasn't been any Market moving comments made by anybody.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are at 1.76%.

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