Friday, October 22, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/22/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The IHS Markit PMI released their October Manufacturing and Services data today.  The Manufacturing dipped a little bit to 59.2; while the Services rose to 58.2.  Any number above 50 for these indices indicates expansion/optimism.  Stocks are Down today, after being in positive territory to start the day.  However, a speech by Fed Chairman Powell jolted both Markets a bit.  He indicated that the Fed is on pace to taper this year; it's too early for any rate hikes; and that inflation will drag into 2022.  This will be his last speech prior to the FOMC in about 2 weeks.  We'll find out if they will begin tapering immediately or (maybe) in December.  In other news, Evergrande made their past due payments to their foreign bondholders today.   Also, Congress is still negotiating the Spending Bill.  Currently, MBS is Up 9-11bps, which is off it's earlier highs (prior to Fed Chair's speesh).  Lenders came out with a little better pricing this morning; however, yesterday, MBS finished Down 36bps; so, we're better than yesterday's close, but not yet to it's opening levels.  As such, Lenders had a few price changes for the worse yesterday.  The good news is that Yields are falling a bit today (down to just under 1.64%, after touching 1.70% yesterday). This might provide some relief to MBS to rally a bit more and get back some of our losses.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, October 21, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/21/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Philly Fed Index dropped from 30.7 in Sept to 23.8 in October.  This index measures the business activity in the Philadelphia area.  Jobless Claims continued to decline, as they report only 290k applied for first time benefits last week. Remember those whom lost there jobs due to refusing the vax mandates won't be included with these numbers.  We don't know yet how much of an impact that may be.  Existing Home Sales jumped up 7.0% in September to 6.29 million seasonally adjusted units.  Lastly, the Leading Economic Indicator rose only 0.2% in September.  Stocks are a bit mixed today, as NASDAQ is lone index in Positive Territory (unlike yesterday, where it was reversed).  Investors are reviewing Q3 Earnings Reports, which approximately 86% have been reporting above expectations.  Fed Speakers appear to be bracing us for rate hikes next year as inflation persists.  Also, Investors are keeping a close eye on the Spending Bills in Congress, as they are at an impasse.  MBS is currently Down 14bps and Lenders will tend to show worse pricing today, which may translate to about 0.125% to the interest rate.  This is on top of the ever-stopping rise with Yields, as they broke another level and are testing another.  They're holding just under 1.67%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/20/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Nothing on the Economic Calendar today, but the Fed Beige Book was released earlier today, which stated the following:

*economy is growing at modest to moderate pace

*low supply of workers across the country

*it's being reported there is significantly elevated prices around the US

So, Inflation, lack of supplies and lack of workers are suppressing the economy from reaching it's full potential.  Many Investors are speaking out on the inflation not being transitory and being more permanent, especially as energy prices quickly escalate and get absorbed into consumers' costs.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ remains lone index in the Red.  They're being heavily influenced with the higher yields, as they continue to try and head north.  They're currently sitting just under 1.64%.  There are a few Fed speakers today, as we approach the FOMC in about 2 weeks.  The question might be if the Fed begins tapering in November or December.  This will have an impact in both the Stock and Bond Markets, as liquidity shrinks.  Meanwhile, MBS is largely unchanged, as it's up only 3bps.  So, there is no change for Mortgage Rates, as they've been in sideways pattern these 3 days. 

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/19/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped 1.6% in September, as they reported only 1.555 million seasonally adjusted units were started.  If you look within the numbers, then most of the numbers were due to a drop with multifamily units (whereas, single family homes were within expectations).  Also, Building Permits dropped 7.7% in September, bringing it down to 1.589 million seasonally adjusted units.  Yesterday, we had an increase with Home Builder Confidence, but they did state that supply chain and labor shortages are creating delays with their plans.  Meanwhile, Stocks are Up on better than expected Q3 Earnings Reports.  Markets will be watching a few different Fed Speakers, so there may be some movement based on what they say.  MBS started the day off higher, then quickly dropped.  Now, it's about unchanged levels.  MBS is currently Down 2bps.  The movements today weren't  enough for Lenders to make any changes to their pricing, so Mortgage Rates should be about the same as yesterday's close.  However, Yields are climbing again (up to 1.63%) and could add some additional pressure to MBS.  This is something we'll need to monitor.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, October 18, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/18/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production continued to drop in September, as it was reported a 1.3% drop; meanwhile, it's August report was revised from an increase of 0.4% to a drop of 0.1%.  Investors received a pleasant surprise, as the NHIB Home Builders Index rose 4 points to 80.  This index measures the confidence level for Home Builders.  Meanwhile, stocks are trading in Mixed territory, as they continue to review Q3 Earnings Reports and other data.  China reported a significant drop in their Q3 economic data, as it dropped from 7.9% to 4.9%.  This had early trading in negative territory, but had subsided since then.  Meanwhile, inflation is still a concern, as energy prices continue to rise (price of a barrel of oil is now over $81).  MBS was Down much more earlier in the trading day, but has subsided to being Down 9bps currently.  Most Lenders priced in approximately a hit of 0.25% to the Mortgage Rates earlier today, but have shown some price improvements (now down only about 0.125% from Friday's pricing).  Yields have spiked again, as it topped 1.60% earlier on; and now is just a hair under it.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, October 15, 2021

Daily Market Repot 10/15/21

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales came in strong for September for the 2nd consecutive month, as it reported a 0.7% increase (higher than the -0.2% forecasts); and even when you exclude Autos, it was strong (0.8%)!  Stocks are really liking this release, along with continued positive Q3 Earnings Reports being released.  The Empire State Index indicated that manufacturing slowed a bit in October, as it dropped from 34.3 in September to 19.8 for October.  Also, the Consumer Sentiment dropped a little bit in October, as it went from 72.8 to 71.4.  MBS is Down 13bps this morning on the positive economic data being published today and being pressured further with rising Yields, which has spiked back above the 2 technical levels that it slipped thru during this week.  Yields are up to 1.57% (yesterday, it was around 1.52%).  Mortgage Rates appear to have climbed about an .125% to the rate today on the news.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

 


Thursday, October 14, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/14/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims came in at 293k last week, as this is the first time since Pandemic that we saw this data in the 200k+ range.  This is helping the Markets.  Lastly, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% in September, while it's Core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.2% (which brings it's YoY from 6.7% in August to 6.8% in September).  The PPI measures inflation for the Wholesale sector and doesn't always carry too much weight, like CPI or PCE.  Stocks are Up today on the Initial Jobless Claims data and good earnings reports from Banks, as we begin the release of Q3 Earnings Reports.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 11bps (coupled with yesterday's close of 23bps) has Lenders out with better Mortgage Rates today (compared to yesterday morning).  Also, Yields are slipping below another Technical Ceiling and is around the 1.52% range.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/13/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The CPI rose 0.4% in September, while it's YoY rose to 5.4% (from 5.3% in August).  However, if you exclude food and energy, then you will see the Core CPI rose only 0.2% in September, while it's YoY remained unchanged at 4.0%.  Obviously, we see it at the gas pumps and grocery stores that these prices are continuing to rise substantially.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory today as the Core CPI came in a bit tame and investors look to the FOMC Minutes being released.  MBS had a rollover, so the Chart may look misaligned, but it's essentially a reset in pricing and Mortgage Rates are unaffected.  Currently, MBS is Up 13bps, which is also being propped up a bit after a good 30 year Auction.  Yesterday, the Market finished Up 11bps; so, we're seeing a positive trend over the past 2 days of trading for MBS.  Mortgage Rates have improved some from yesterday.  Also, Yields are making their way lower, as it is testing it's Technical floor.  It's currently at 1.55%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/12/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  No Economic Data to report today.  We have some Treasury auctions, which the 10yr performed well, as I was providing the video presentation; so, we may see some improvement soon.  This week holds inflation data, which the CPI is released tomorrow and the PPI is released on Thursday.  Investors are watching inflation and any news on improvement in the supply chain and jobs data, as the IMF recently downgraded their forecasts for these very issues; and as a result, stocks are Down today.  Meanwhile, before the 10 year Treasury Auction, MBS was down 8bps and Unchanged levels; but this wasn't enough for any change in Mortgage Rates.  Yields had dipped below 1.60% to 1.58%.  We're hoping to see it break below the 1.56% technical floor, so there's less pressure on MBS and we can see some improvements in Mortgage Rate again soon!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, October 8, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/8/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is the big jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The average earnings rose 0.6% in September, which average work week rose to 34.8 hrs/week.  However, the Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed again, as only 194k.  There was an expectation of approximately 500k.  But, the August numbers were revised higher, from 235k to 366k; but this is still a far miss from it's expection of around 700k-900k.  On the flip side, we saw a drop in the Unemployment Rate  from 5.2% to 4.8%.  I think October will be interesting, as companies begin to layoff non-vaccinated employees, whom won't be on the Unemployment data.  Lastly, wholesale inventories continued their 1.2% trend for the 2nd month in a row for August.  Investors are Uncertain about the Fed's stand, as the Jobs data disappointed with huge misses for 2 months in a row; and we're entering the fall/winter period when people will be more indoors.  This latter comment is the concern for the possibility of another uptick with the delta/corona virus numbers, which again, may slow down the economy.  Meanwhile, Congress temporarily avoided a shutdown/default on debts when the Senate passed a temporary increase to the Debt Ceiling, which will be good until Dec. 3rd.  Like the Equity Markets, MBS is taking a bit of a beating (again) today, as it's currently Down 16bps.  Mortgage Rates rose, as a result.  The increase in Mortgage Rates is approximately .125% to the rate.  Also, Yields are rising again, to levels last seen in June.  It's up to approximately 1.61%.  This is adding pressure to MBS.  Investors appear to be uncertain, so they're pulling investment dollars out of both markets for the time being.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, October 7, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/7/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims dropped down to 326k this past week, as fewer people apply for first time unemployment numbers.  As indicated, it will be interesting to view these numbers in the near future, as many folks are holding the line against vaccinations and being fired.  These folks won't be factored into the unemployment data, as they won't qualify to receive benefits.  However, if you look at the Challenger layoffs for Sept, then you see a spike from 15.723 million to 17.895 million; so, nearly 2 million planned layoffs.  Stocks like the lower Jobless Claims, but are liking the temporary solution for the Debt Ceiling Crisis; which Democrats and Republicans agreed to extend the deadline to December while raising it approximately $480 billion.  Meanwhile, Putin had eased the Markets regarding the energy issues facing Europe and Asia; however, oil prices are continuing to rise (now up approximately $78/barrel).  All of this, has pushed MBS lower today (currently Down approximately 16bps).  Mortgage Rates are Up approximately by an .125%.  Yields are pushing against an important technical ceiling (around 1.56%); and is currently just under 1.57%.  MBS and Treasuries are pretty much illiquid, as investors are more buoyed by equities.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/6/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The first of the September Job Data was reported this morning, as the ADP announced a better than expected 568k jobs in the private payrolls were created in September.  This has investors on Wall Street thinking more about the upcoming Taper talk, which Stocks are in Negative Territory today.  It will be interesting to see how they view those people whom lost their jobs because they don't want the vaccinne and won't show up on the unemployment numbers.  Most likely will be more noticeable on the Labor Participation and U6 number.  Investors are also watching energy prices continue to rise; and Europe and Asia facing a bit of a crunch.  Meanwhile, MBS has decided to drop a bit more today, as we're currently Down 6bps (after closing -30bps yesterday).  Most Lenders will price worse today in their Mortgage Rates.  They should be a little worse today, or their pricing (depending upon Lender) is a little worse.  Yields is flirting with another ceiling, but is currently sitting between it's 2 technicals at 1.53%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/5/21

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today, we received data in the services sector by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of September, which rose from 61.7 in August, to 61.9 for September.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion.  This is helping stocks gain more footing in today's trading.  Starting tomorrow, we'll start seeing jobs data for the month of September, which will be our catalyst for the week, so stay tuned!  After yesterday's big selloff with equities, Investors are back to buying (as they say in the street, "you buy on the dip").  Meanwhile, MBS Market has become a bit illiquid, so it's taking a bit of a beating today.  It's currently Down about 20bps, which has led Lenders to price in worse pricing on their ratesheets and Mortgage Rates have risen today.  Also, Yields have spiked higher and has tested a new ceiling.  It's currently residing around 1.52%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

 


Monday, October 4, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/4/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Light day today, in terms of economic data, which Factory Orders is the only report.  It was reported that it rose by 1.2% in August.  Stocks are Down, mostly due to concerns over the Debt Ceiling Crisis in Washington.  A few items to note in the healines news were that Evergrande is talking about selling off pieces to cover their debt payments, which they're currenlty talking about their property management company.  Meanwhile, the CEO of BioNTech basically stated that the covid virus would continue to mutate to different forms, which will lead to further vaccinations in the future.  Some countries have already accepted that it's here to stay and have fully reopened back to normal (places like Norway and Singapore).  MBS closed Up 22bps on Friday, which helped to recapture some of the big losses over the previous week.  Today, we're Down about 6bps, but not enough to change Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged from Friday's close.  Yields have been testing it's Technical floor and currently just above it at 1.48%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, October 1, 2021

Daily Market Report 10/1/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's a lot of data on the Economic Calendar today, which we'll start off with the Personal Income for August, which rose 0.2%; and the Consumer Spending rose 0.8 in August.  The biggie for this week is the PCE, which is the Consumer inflation data that is most heavily weighted by the Fed.  The consider it's Core PCE as "real inflation".  The PCE rose 0.4% in August, as it's YoY rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3%.  The Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3 in August, which it's YoY remained Unchanged at 3.6%.  Manufacturing seems to be in good shape, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 61.1 in September.  Lastly, Consumer Sentiment rose to 72.8 in September.  Overall, decent numbers!  Stocks are Up this morning; and MBS is Up 14bps too.  Another day of improvement for Mortgage Rates.  However, the Yields seem to be stuck north of 1.48%, which is a technical level that we'd like to break, in order to allow Mortgage Rates to continue to improve.  Despite the hesitancy, MBS does seem to be outperforming it's counterpart.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.