Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims scaled back from the previous reporting to 213k people applying for first time benefits.  The GDP's 2nd revision for the Q3 came in a little higher, from 1.9% to 2.1%.  We'll see the final revision next month!  Durable Goods Orders (including the data without Transportation) rose 0.6% in October, as many expected another decline.  The manufacturing in the Chicago region improved a little, even though it's still in contraction territory, as the Chicago PMI came in from 43.2 to 46.3 in November.  Personal Income remained Unchanged in October; however, Consumer Spending rose 0.3%, wihich hopefully is a good indicator heading into the Holiday Season!  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% in October, while it's YoY remained at 1.3%; however the Core PCE (without Food or Energy, and the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation) rose 0.1%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6% -The Fed is targeting for a 2.0% rate!  Pending Home Sales dropped 1.7% in October, which NAR attributed it to lack of inventory and slightly higher rates in October from previous month.  Stocks are in Positive Territory based on today's data.  MBS is Down 14bps, so Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit today.  Yields have climbed it's way Up to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller HPI rose in September from 3.1% to 3.2%.  Consumer Confidence slightly slipped from 125.9 to 125.5 in November.  Forecasts were calling for an increase to 128.2.  New Home Sales had a large revisions to it's September numbers, going from 701k to 738k, which technically, it dropped to 733k in October based on the revision.  This will most likely be misconstrued in the Media into some negative news, but don't be misled with the misinformation.  Stocks continue to climb on preliminary agreement to a Phase One between the US and China.  Also, Fed Chair Powell had optimistic view of the US economy last night, which is sticking well with investors.  The good news is that MBS is also rising, and is currently Up 6bps.  Couple that with yesterday's late rally close Up 16bps), which Improves pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have fallen below it's 50 DMA and currently sits a bit under 1.74%.

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Monday, November 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data for the Calendar today, but there will be bunch of important data crammed into the next 2 days.  This week will be a holiday shortened week, which our last report for this week will be Wednesday.  Stocks are Up this morning on optimism of a US / China Trade Deal potentially set for a Phase One by end of year.  Reports by both sides indicated this optimism; and China has sent out a memo on protecting Intellectual Property, which has been a sticking point with the US; along with more agriculture purchases.  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are fighting to stay above it's 50 DMA and currently sit at 1.76%.

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Friday, November 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment grew to 96.8 (from  95.7) in November.  Also, Markit Manufacturing PMI flash rose from 51.3 to 52.2 in November.  The other Markit report is on the Services Industry, which is the Markit Non-Manufacturing PMI flash, which rose from 50.9 tp 51.6.  Both indexes indicate expansion, as they're above 50 (anything below 50 is considered contraction with these reports).  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as both Presidents Xi and Trump indicated a Trade deal is very close.  The Markit PMI data out of Europe was very poor, as UK is still in Contraction territory, while EU is teetering on Contraction.  MBS is Up 2bps and still trying to break above it's Fibonacci level, which is proving to be very strong.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged. Yields are still sitting between it's ceiling of 100 DMA/Fibonacci and floor of 50 DMA.  It's currently at 1.76%  We may want to pay close attention to the Stochastic Chart, as it's showing a possible Trend Reversal.  Be cautious, if you're floating any transactions that the rates are not locked!

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Thursday, November 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Weekly Jobless Claims were a little higher this week than expectations with 227k applying for first time benefits.  The Philly Fed Index rose from 5.6 to 10.4 in November.  This index measures the manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  Existing Home Sales improved from 5.36 million annualized units to to 5.46 million.  Also, Leading Indicators show the economy to gradually slow down, which it contracted by 0.1% in October.  Stocks are in Negative Territory as pessimism lingers for a China/US Trade Agreement.  We have mixed reports today, which China's Vice Premier invited US delegates over for face-to-face meetings and painted an optimistic tone to negotiations.  However, Reuters reported that any agreement wouldn't carry over until 2020, and Congress passed a Human Rights for Hong Kong Bill, which is set for the President to sign.  This latter part, may create more tensions with China, as they will view this measure as US interference into their Domestic Policy.  MBS is Down about 2bps and just lingering under it's Fibonacci Level.  Yields started the morning lower and rose above it's 100 DMA and was stopped by it's next ceiling at the Fibonacci Level.  It's sitting at 1.76%.

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Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today's rather quiet, in terms of reports being released.  Only the FOMC Minutes will be released later this morning.  It may not have as much impact on the Market today, as Fed Chair Powell spoke before Congress last week.  Meanwhile, Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Investors continue to grow weary over any possibility of a US/China Phase One Agreement any time soon.  However, there were a number of positive Corporate Earnings Reports that are helping the Markets.  MBS is currently Up 6bps.  When you build upon the steady growth over past few days, Mortgage Rates will show some Improvement in today's pricing.  It should be comparable to what we saw on Monday morning.  Yields continue to slide lower, as it tries to stay above it's last floor of support at the 50 DMA.  It currently sits at 1.75%.

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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts improved in October, rising from 1.266 million annualized units in September to 1.314 million in October.  The Building Permits (a good forward view of Housing Starts) increased to a 12 year high, which it went from 1.391 million annualized units in September to 1.461 million in October.  The good part of this data is the increase in Single Family Homes.  Stocks are Down this morning and growing doubt over a US-China Trade deal happening before the December 15th Deadline (for more Tariffs).  Also, Home Depot and Kohls sales disappointed.  MBS is currently Up 5bps.  However, MBS closed only +5bps yesterday, well off of it's highs when pricing came out.  So, Lenders whom had an intraday price change yesterday for the worse, then they'll price today about the same as yesterday's close.  Those whom held off on a change in pricing will see it in today's pricing.  Yields are trying to hold above it's Quadruple floor of support.  It's currently below it's 25- and 100 DMA and sitting just on it's Fibonacci.  It's just a hair under 1.79% now.

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Monday, November 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Home Builders Index, which measures the confidence level of Home Builders, slid from 71 to 70 in November.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as pessimism grows on any US-China Trade Deal happening any time soon.  MBS is currently Up 19bps and fighting to stay above it's Fibonacci level, and rose above it's 25-, 50- and 100 DMA.  Yields are Down to 1.80% and sitting on a Triple layer of Support at 25-, 100 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates did improve today.

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Friday, November 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales Improved by 0.3% in October; and when you exclude Autos, then it only rose 0.1%.  Import Prices rose 0.2% in October.  Empire State Index, which measures the Manufacturing sector in NY region, dropped from 4.0 to 2.9 in November.  Industrial Production slipped 0.8% in October.  Capacity Utilization fell to 76.7% in October, which is at a 2 year low.  Meanwhile, Business Inventories remain Unchanged in September.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Retail Sales data and clinging to any hope of an announcement of a US/China Trade Agreement.  They're trying to justify the New Highs in the Indexes, but they're growing impatient.  MBS is Down 5bps this morning and is sitting above the 25- and 100 DMA, but right up against the 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged this morning.  Yields are currently sitting around 1.83%.

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Thursday, November 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rose to a 5 month high last week, as 225k people filed for Unemployment.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose higher than expected in October by 0.4%, which forecasts called for 0.3%.  However, it's YoY dropped from 1.4% to 1.1%.  Like it's counter-part, the Core PPI (excluding food and energy), it exceeded it's October forecast of 0.2%, and came in at 0.3%.  Also, it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.6%.  Stocks are in the Red today, as Investors grow weary of a US/China Trade Agreement.  Fed Chair Powell will begin his 2nd day of speaking with Congress today; and other Fed Members will be out today with their Speaking Engagements.  MBS is currently Up 19bps, as Mortgage Rates improve; however, it's up against a very tough triple layer of resistance (the 25-, 50- and 100 DMA lie just above it).  Yields have slipped down to 1.83%, and is coming close to reaching it's floor of support, which is currently the 100 DMA.

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October; and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.2% in October; however, it YoY dropped from 2.4% to 2.3%.  Stocks are Down this morning after being disappointed in President Trump's speech yesterday, as they didn't feel that they received any of the information that they were seeking.  Also, to add fire to the fuel, Fed Chair Powell's statements to Congress was released before his Testimony, which disappointed Investors even more, as he stated that we shouldn't expect any more rate cuts based on the current levels in the economy, unless there were a severe deterioration.  MBS is benefiting from this, as they're Up 14bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates will see a slight improvement in their pricing.  Yields have slid under it's Fibonacci and resides at 1.88%.

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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which is an index that measures the confidence level with Small Businesses, rose from 101.8 to 102.4 in October.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as they await a speech from President Trump today.  It's anticipated that he'll speak on Tariffs and Trade.  We'll have a few Fed Members speaking today, but lately, there hasn't been any Market moving comments by any of the Members.  MBS is currently Down 5pbs and is floating in "No Man's" land between it's new floor of support (Fibonacci level) and ceiling of resistance (100 DMA).  Yields are still just above it's Fibonacci and just a hair below 1.95%. Mortgage Rates haven't changed since Friday's pricing.

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Friday, November 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment rose slightly from 95.5 to 95.7, which was better than expectations of it dropping to 95.0.  Wholesale Inventories dropped 0.4% in September.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory today, as President Trump stated that he didn't authorize any roll-back on Tariffs, per comments made out of China yesterday.  If you may recall, there were reports that China stated that Tariffs will be rolled back as part of Phase 1 of the agreement.  The US never acknowledged an agreement, but reports in the US that there were internal debates around these comments.  The Markets cooled off later in the afternoon.  MBS had a brutal day yesterday, after touching the low point of September 13th, which was approximately down 72bps, to close down 41bps.  This morning, it 's currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates are approximately the same position that we started the day yesterday, or very slightly worse.  Yields are trying to stay above it's current Fibonacci and sitting at 1.92%.

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Thursday, November 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims came in lower this last week (from the previous of 219k) to 211k.  Stocks are taking off a bit this morning on news out of China that the US and them have agreed to cancel tariffs in phases.  There has not yet been any response from the US yet, but investors are running with it.  As the money flows from MBS/Bonds to Equities, then MBS has really taken a nosedive this morning, and is down about 53bps.  It's dropped below it's 100 DMA and approaching it's next level of support (Fibonacci level at 100.734).  Yields have skyrocketed.  They've broken above it's Fibonacci and sit at 1.93%.

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Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Productivity slipped by 0.3% in Q3, as forecast called for an increase of 0.6%.  Unit Labor Costs rose 3.6% in Q3, which was much higher than expectations of 2.5%.  Stocks are in the Red this morning after reaching new highs again yesterday.  They seem to be searching for a new catalyst, as Q3 Corporate Earnings winds down.  This may be a prelude to a correction, which may benefit MBS.  Speaking of MBS, it's currently Up 16bps.  This will put pricing to about where we started yesterday morning, as it worsened yesterday by closing down 37bps.  Yields are down a little bit to 1.84%.  There will be  10 year Note Auction later today which could influence the Markets, as Investors will decide if they have an appetite for Treasuries.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have 2 reports on the Services Industry.  The Markit Services PMI showed a decline from 51.0 to 50.6 in October; whereas, the ISM Non Manufacturing Index rose from 52.6% to 54.7%.  The ISM is considered the "Gold Standard" for Economists and Investors.  Stocks are moving slowly in Mixed Territory after reaching New Highs yesterday.  The driver today is China's request for the US to roll back on their September Tariffs, along with the upcoming December Tariffs.  Reports have the US considering the proposition and have Investors optimistic.  The Q3 Earnings Reports and Fed Speakers continue this week.  MBS is way down this morning, down 30bps and sitting just atop it's 100 DMA, after breaking thru it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Meanwhile, Yields skyrocked above it's Fibonacci and 100 DMA and stitting at 1.86%.  This was it's previous high last week.  Let's see if it holds!

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Monday, November 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders dropped 0.6% in September, which is the only report on the Calendar today.  Tomorrow will give us some insight into the Services Industry with the ISM Services Index.  Stocks are Up this morning on progress being made with China, which Phase 1 is being scheduled for both leaders to sign at a location to be determined.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to do well.  There are a few Fed Members scheduled to speak today, and the rest of this week.  MBS is currently down 11bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today from Friday's pricing.  Yields are trying to push back above it's Fibonnaci level, which sits at 1.779%.

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Friday, November 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS released their Jobs data, which we'll start with the Non-Farm Payrolls for October.  We saw 128k new jobs with expectations set at 75k.  On top of that, the previous 2 months were revised higher by another 95k.  The Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%, as the Labor Participation Rate increased from 63.2% to 63.3%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2%.  So, overall, the Jobs data came in very well!.  On the otherhand, Manufacturing is still struggling, as the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.5 to 51.3 and ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 47.8% to 48.3% (missing expectations and in contraction side of the data).  Construction Spending rose by 0.5% in September.  Stocks are Up on the strong Jobs data while Q3 Earnings Reports continue to roll-in.  MBS is currently down 8bps, but had a nice rally yesterday.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are fighting it's way back above the 25 DMA, and are currently sitting at 1.72%.

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