Friday, May 20, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/20/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  Next week, we'll have a number of important data, but the most important will be the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday.  This is the Fed's favorite index to gauge Consumer Inflation.  MBS is pretty much following the cue from the Stock Market, which continues it's decline, as Investors stress over inflation induced shrinkage with Corporate Profit Margins, as the Fed continues to hike rates and concerns over recession and stagflation persists with the current economic environment.  MBS started the day lower; however, quickly rose to positive territory (averaging between 6-11bps while filming this video).  This isn't enough to change pricing (compared from yesterday), so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Also, the current candlestick position on the chart is still above the 25 DMA.  Meanwhile, Yields have slipped a bit further, just under 2.80%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 19, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/19/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Philly Fed Index dropped from 17.6 in April to 2.6 in May.  This index measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia area.  This has been see quite a bit this month, so we'll monitor to verify if this is becoming a trend or not.  Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218k.  Housing data continues to disappoint this week, as the Existing Home Sales dropped by 2.4% to 5.61 million annualized units in April.  Lastly, the Leading Indicator dropped 0.3% in April.  Stocks are Mixed today, as Investors continue to worry about shrinking profit margins  and investment dollars are flowing over into MBS.  MBS is currently Up 30bps, as pricing for Mortgage Rates continued to improve.  Today is a first for MBS, which it opened above the 25 DMA.  This is first time we've been above 25 DMA since October 2021.  Once we crossed lower, then it trended lower.  We may have finally found our floor of support with MBS, as we're starting to see some improvement.  How much improvement will be a good question.  Meanwhile, Yields fell down to just under 2.85%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/18/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped by 0.2% in April, as March data was revised lower (from 1.793 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.728 million).  April's data reported at 1.724 million.  Likewise, Building Permits dropped 3.2% in April.  However, it's March data was revised higher (from 1.870 million to 1.879 million).  April's data came in at 1.819 million.  We'll continue to monitor this data, as we saw yesterday that confidence with Home Builders dipped in May.  This trend could continue.  Meanwhile, there's a massive selloff with Stocks today, as Investors continue to review Corporate Earnings Reports, which many large Retailers are releasing their reports this week.  Many have missed their numbers, which is due to their rising costs (a result from high inflation).  Investment dollars have diverted over to MBS, as it's currently Up 33bps.  We're seeing an improvement with pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have come down to 2.89% and pushing it's 25 DMA again.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/17/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales rose 0.9% in April, after a sharp higher revision to March (from 0.5% to 1.4%).  This, on the surface looks very good, but Rick Santelli made a great point about this data.  The point is related to the data not being adjusted for inflation.  The reported data may be over-inflated due to the spike in inflation.  Even Walmart disappointed with their Earnings Reports that was just released yesterday.  More retailers will be releasing their data this week.  In other Economic data, Industrial Production rose 1.1% in April.  The NAHB Home Builders Index, which measures confidence with Home Builders, dropped dramatically in May, as it went from 77 in April to 69 in May.  We'll need to monitor this, as it may indicate that Home Builders may not continue to build homes, or simply dropoff.  Lastly, Business Inventories rose 2.0% in March.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Retail Sales data, as Investors are feeling like inflation isn't affecting the Consumers (I stated previously my thoughts).  Also, it seems like China may lighten up with their Technology Companies, as they tightened up with them last year.  This is of course amidst a slowing economic market.  Analysts, like JPM Chase, revised their thoughts on buying into their stocks.  MBS is Down approximately 45bps, after touching it's 25 DMA yesterday.  This has led to ratesheets today with a little bit of worse pricing.  Also, Yields jumped back above it's 25 DMA and sitting just under 2.97%.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking a little later this morning; and a few Fed Members will follow.  Depending upon their statements, it could have a major impact with the Markets.  So, stay tuned!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 16, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/16/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the NY region contracted in April, as the Empire State Index reported that it declined 11.6 on it's index on forecasts of +17.00.  The week ahead has Retail Sales (which may coincide with many Corporate Earnings releases for some of the largest Retailers), Housing data and Manufacturing.  Today, Stocks are down again on pessimism by Investors on the possibility of a smooth landing with the path of the Fed policy, as many economists revise global economic growth lower.  Part of the issue lies with China's current COVID lockdowns, which is having a major constraint with the supply chain.  This is having a positive effect with Mortgage Rates, as MBS is currently  Up 13bps, but have been averaging between +14bps to 23bps.  MBS is currently challenging it's 25 DMA overhead, which has put a cap on any potential trend.  At least for today, we'll see some slight improvement with our Mortgage Rates.  Yields are currently just under 2.89% and below it's 25 DMA once again.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, May 13, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/13/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Sentiment dropped fairly significantly in May, as it went from 65.2 in April to 59.1 in May.  This is an important index to gauge, as Consumer behavior affects whether the economy will weaken or strengthen; and if they're not feeling it, then it could eventually lead to a recession (and possibly, "Stagflation").  It's impact with the Markets today was only brief.  Stocks are rebounding today after a week of beatdowns.  As a result, MBS is currently Down 16bps.  This is simply a movement of investment dollars flowing from MBS to equities, as Investors are buying low.  But this also means for us that Mortgage Rates worsened slightly.  If you watch the video, then you'll see that the 25 DMA held it's own with the MBS and pushed away the trend in the Japanese Candlestick.  Similarly, Yields were briefly challenging it's 25 DMA, only pushed back above it today.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 12, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/12/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly from last week to 203k.  This is people applying for first time benefits.  The good news is that Continuing Claims has continued to decline.  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures Wholesale Inflation, rose only 0.5% in April.  This is after a big spike in March, which it rose 1.6%.  The Core PPI, which excludes food & energy, rose only  0.4% (beating out estimates of 0.6%), while it's YoY dropped from 9.6% in March to 8.8%.  Normally, this data doesn't get much respect, but due to inflation being the hot topic, the it's value has increased.  This report has given some investors and economist renewed hope that inflation has peaked; and hopefully, will get better.  Stocks are down again today, as they're still working their way thru the Fed policy road map.  This data didn't hurt MBS, as it has given investors a bit more hope regarding inflation.  Today, it has been a bit volatile, as we've seen it bounce back in highs and lows.  It's lows were equal to the same level as yesterday's close.  It's currently Up 38bps, so Lenders rate sheets have continued to show some improvement this week.  It's been awhile since we've had any improvement past 2 consecutive days; and now it's been 4 (if this continues).  However, MBS is approaching it's 25 DMA again, so we'll see if it can spring past it; or does it contain it(?)  Meanwhile, Yields have dipped below it's 25 DMA and sitting just under 2.83%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/11/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Priced Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April while it's YoY dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, missing expectations of 8.1%.  The Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.6% while it's YoY dropped from 6.5% to 6.2%, also missing it's forecasts of 6.0%.  One of the real reasons behind this drop was due to a big spike in March 2021, which fell off the YoY average.  This is still concerning, especially when you look at the MoM data.  Some Economists are now calling on the Fed to hike rates at 0.75%, which they announced last week was off the table.  It will be interesting to see if the Fed has a change of heart, so when they have any more upcoming speeches, then you know people will be listening for any hints of a 0.75% hike possibility.  Stocks are down on the news, along with more disappointing earnings reports.  MBS had a rollover, so the graph looks worse than reality.  This is when there's a reset in pricing for MBS, which we're now rolling over to June.  There's no effect on pricing for Mortgage Rates.  MBS was Down quite a bit this morning, which prompted worse pricing; however, it subsided and is now Up 8-11bps; and Lenders have repriced for the better.  Pricing is similar to yesterday's close, if not a little better.  Yields spiked earlier (touching off the 3.0% range) and have slid back down to 2.93%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/10/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  The Markets are preparing themselves for tomorrow when the CPI is released.  This will have the biggest impact this week, as Investors are looking for confirmation that inflation has peaked.  Stocks have been selling off over the past few days in preparation, as Investors are concerned over the Fed's tightening policy and they haven't seen signs of inflation cooling down quite yet.  This has helped MBS to some degree, as it's up again today (+48bps).  Mortgage Rates improve again today.  Yields have also fallen down to 2.95% (after it was as high as 3.17% yesterday).  Be careful, as we haven't really seen more than 2 days of gains, only to find them wiped out on the 3rd day with a big loss.  We're approaching the 25 DMA with MBS, which we haven't had much interaction with any of their Moving Averages, so it will be interesting to find if they get pushed back down, or are they able to rise above it?  We'll most likely find out that answer tomorrow!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 9, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/9/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories maintained their pace with 2.3% increase for March.  There's not a lot of Economic Data to be released this week, so most focus will be on the upcoming inflation data by CPI and PPI.  Investors will be looking for possible acknowledgement that Inflation has peaked.  There's still real concern over inflation, which is what's dictating the Markets.  Investors are concerned that the Fed may not be doing enough (especially when they announced the 75 bps hike is off the table) and the probability of an economic slowdown (while inflation is still high), which will lead to the worse case scenario (Stagflation).  Stocks are Down today and Investors have shifted investment dollars over to Bonds/MBS.   MBS is currently Up 33bps, as Mortgage Rates show some improvement after Friday's big selloff.  It was very volatile in the immediate morning as the Market sought some liquidity, as Investors had large gaps between what the Buyers and Sellers were willing to buy and sell.  It began to improve just before 7am PST and most Lenders improved their rate sheets from it's initial rate sheet.  Meanwhile, Yields have slid from earlier highs to just under 3.08% (after touching at 3.17%).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, May 6, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/6/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Average Earnings rose only 0.3%, coming in under forecasts.  Hopefully, this is an indicator that wage inflation is stabilizing.  Non-Farm Payrolls reported 428k new jobs for April, beating expectations!  However, the Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%; likewise, the Average Work Week (hrs.) remained unchanged at 34.6 hours per week.  One piece of data that didn't make it onto the graph, was the Labor Participation, which dropped 0.2% to 62.2%.  This is something to monitor, as there may be some concerns of another Great Resignation.  Both Markets (Stocks and MBS) are reacting similarly.  Yesterday, Investors were very concerned over the Labor Cost and Productivity data; and today's data is a little mixed and being treated somewhere in the middle.  Investors are thinking that the Fed is behind in the curve with fighting inflation and appear disappointed that the 75bps hike possibility is off the table may only lead to the possibility of stagflation; and feel that a "soft landing" is not possible.  The MBS Market is facing a lot of illiquidity, as the gap between Sellers and Buyers continue to widen a bit.  MBS is facing a lot of volatility today, as they're currently Down 30bps, which is off from earlier lows.  Either way, Mortgage Rates have worsened by at least a .125% to the rate.  Meanwhile, Yields continue to rise, as they are now at 3.12%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, May 5, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/5/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Bank of England's announcement started off our calendar today, as they hiked their rates up by 0.25%.  Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims rose back up to 200k.  Challenger Layoffs announced an additional 3 million job layoffs to come.  However, the Continuing Claims dropped about 20k from last week.  Labor Costs rose 11.6% in it's initial report for Q1, while Productivity dropped by 7.5%.  This latter portion is concerning; especially the Labor Costs, as this is inflationary data.  After the Fed provided their announcement yesterday, both Markets rallied quite well (DOW was up over 900 points and MBS closed Up over 60bps).  However, today, that rally quickly disappeared and more losses are mounting.  DOW is down over 1k so far today and MBS is Down 80bps.  The rally started yesterday because the Fed announced they would remove the 75bps off the table for any of their upcoming FOMC, but the 50bps hike would be a strong choice.  Today, there's no real clear explanation for it, other than some possible technical positioning.  There's a glut of unexpected Corporate Bonds being sold on the Market today, so this could be helping to exacerbate today's MBS losses.  There's also a lot of illiquid positions in the Markets, as there's  a large gap between the Buyers and Sellers.  Meanwhile, Yields have spiked to 2018 levels as they are now just a hair under 3.10%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/4/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP reported 247k new jobs for Private Payroll in April, which came in much lower than forecast.  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped from 58.3 in March to 57.1 in April, which it slowed with the Services sector, like it's counterpart in Manufacturing in yesterday's report.  Later today, the Fed will provide their announcement after it's completion of the 2 day FOMC.  It's widely expected for them hike rates by 50bps and begin the Balance Sheet reduction.  Investors will listen to how aggressive of approach the Fed will take going forward.  Both Stocks and Bonds opened lower for the day.  MBS are currently off their morning lows; however, still Down around 13bps.  Mortgage Rates are priced a little worse today.  This trend started yesterday afternoon, as MBS closed in the Red (after being in positive territory for most of the day).  Investors are positioning themselves ahead of the Fed Announcement, so it could become very volatile after their announcement.  Meanwhile, Yields did touch off the 3.00% Mark and currently is sitting at just under 2.99%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/3/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Factory Orders exceeded expectations for March and rose by 2.2% on forecasts of 1.1%.  Also, February's data was revised from -0.5% to +0.1%.  The Fed begins their 2 day meeting (FOMC), which they'll be providing their announcement tomorrow.  It is widely expected they'll hike rates by 0.5% tomorrow, along with plans to implement the Balance Sheet reduction.  Investors will watch for clues as to how they plan to proceed: like how aggressive will they be to reduce the Balance Sheet; and will they hike rates by 0.75% for their June & July meetings or do 4 consecutive 0.5% hikes?  These are the questions that are going through the investors' minds.  Both Markets improved late in the day yesterday, as stocks closed in positive territory and MBS down 17bps (after being down 36bps early on).  Today, they both are trending in positive territory, as MBS is currently Up 13bps.  So, Mortgage Rates improved some; and close to same level as we closed on Friday.  Yields touched off the 3.00% range yesterday and have pulled back some.  It's currently just under 2.95%, but was down to 2.92% earlier on.  The FOMC will have the greatest impact this week for the Markets; and the Jobs data will be second most impactful (especially on Friday with the BLS' report).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, May 2, 2022

Daily Market Report 5/2/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing appears to be weakening, as inflation and supply chain issues mount, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.1 in March to 55.4 in April.  Anything above 50 is still considered expansion with this index.  A side note, Construction Spending came in underwhelmingly at 0.1% increase for March.  Investors are positioning themselves ahead of the 2 day FOMC, which begins tomorrow and their announcement on Wednesday.  It is expected they'll raise the rates by 0.5% and begin with the Balance Sheet reduction.  There's some recent debate on the pace of the ratehikes, as some are projecting a 0.75% for both June and July meetings; whereas, some believe it will be 4 consecutive 0.5% ratehikes.  Also, they'll be seeking to find out more information on how they plan to reduce the Balance Sheet (or how aggressive they'll be).  MBS opened this morning with a BIG selloff, as Mortgage Rates rise again today.  The lows were around -36bps, but as I was doing the video, it subsided to -27bps.  Yields are quickly approaching the 3.00% level, as they are currently at 2.99%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.