Friday, June 24, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/24/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  New Homes Sales beat expectations for May, as it jumped up 10.7% to 696k seasonally adjusted units.  However, Consumer Sentiment dipped down to 50.0 in June.  A few bits that we don't normally look at, but Fed Chair Powell made a comment about it, which raised it's importance this week.  The comment was regarding the Consumer Sentiment toward inflation, or outlook of inflation over a 1 year and 5 year period.  Both were recently lower in June, compared to May's outlook.  The 1 year went from 5.4% to 5.3%; and the 5 year went from 3.3% to 3.1%.  This helped to ease concerns for many investors, as Stocks improved yesterday and have continued this trend today.  As a result, money has flowed over to Equities from Bonds.  Yesterday, MBS was up 77bps, and closed only up 25bps.  Pricing for Mortgage Rates improved yesterday (from Wednesday's ratesheet), but did lose some of the better pricing, as the Market deteriorated.  Today, MBS is currently Down about 17bps, so again Mortgage Rates worsened (compared to yesterday's close).  Meanwhile, Yields spiked upwards to just under 3.13%.  Yesterday, it was down to around 3.03%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 23, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/23/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The weekly Initial Jobless Claims dipped to 229k last week, after last week's report was revised higher, from 229k to 231k.  Also, there was a slight increase to the Continuing Claims from last week.  The Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services) for the month of June, which anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 53.4 in May to 51.6 in June; and the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.0 in May to 52.4 in June.  Fed Chair Powell wraps up his 2 day testimony before the House Committee today.  Investors continue to be concerned that the hawkish Fed policy will force the economy into a recession.  There have been recent signs that the economy may not be as strong as the Fed has been stating.  And the Investors recognize this.  Meanwhile, MBS received a boost early on after poor PMI data from Europe sparked some Bond buying in Europe, which trickled over to the US.  We're currently down from earlier highs (over the past hour), which was up to 77bps; however, while I was doing this video, we were ranging between Up 33bps to 50bps.  Overall, pricing for Mortgage Rates are doing better than yesterday, which closed up 45bps.  We're getting closer to getting back to the 25 DMA in both the MBS and Yields.  Yields dropped down to just under 3.05%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/22/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no notable items on the Economic Calendar today, but there was some positive from the MBA's Mortgage Loan Activity, which reported an increase of Mortgage Loan Origination with Purchase Transactions.  Fed Chair Powell begins his 2 day Congressional Testimony today.  His statements are pretty much the same.  He is talking very hawkish, but also trying to assure the Markets that the economy is doing well and it can handle higher rates.  Meanwhile, Investors are still concerned over the possibility of an upcoming recession due to the Fed Policy Path.  Stocks are down today, as the Money is flowing back into the Bond Market, as a Flight to Safety.  The price of oil has recently subsided dramatically.  It was around $122/barrel about a week ago and now it's down to about $106/barrel today.  Part of this is chatter with the Whitehouse regarding the possibility of suspending the federal gas tax for 3 months and encouraging state level to do so, as well.  MBS closed yesterday in almost Unchanged levels (down 3bps) after being deeper in the red for most of the day.  Today, it's Up about 48bps (off a little from earlier highs); so, Morgage Rates have improved today.  Also, Yields dropped a bit too, as it's sitting around 3.16%.  It closed yesterday at 3.28%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/21/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Home Sales dipped 3.4% in May to 5.41 million seasonally adjusted units.  There's not a lot of data being released this week on the Economic Calendar, so most impact will come from headline/geopolitical news or investor sentiment.  Stocks are Up today, as investment dollars continued to flow from Bonds to Equities.  MBS started the morning down much lower and is currently Down 16bps, as Lender ratesheets have worsened since Friday's Market close.  Yields have shot up to just under 3.30% today.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 17, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/17/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production only increased by 0.2% in May, below forecast of 0.4%.  Also, Leading Indicators contracted by 0.4% in May, which sets off 2 months in a row with contraction.  Stocks are Up today, as Investors are buying on the dip; and money is flowing out of Bonds, as a result.  Investors are trying to acclimate to a new environment, which easy money will be gone; and Fed is being aggressive with their attempts to reduce Inflation back down to 2% level.  Meanwhile, mixed data shows that maybe economy might head into a recession.  As a result, we're currently seeing MBS Down 25bps, after seesawing earlier on.  This means that Mortgage Rates worsened a little bit in comparisons to those being quoted after the Market's close yesterday.  Yesterday, the Market ended up closing Up 5bps, after trading in Negative territory for most of day.  Yields slid quite a bit yesterday, as they're currently hanging around the 3.24% level today.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 16, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/16/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped by 14.4% in May, while Building Permits dropped by 7.0%.  The Philly Fed Index, which measures manufacturing in the Philadelphia area, dropped to -3.3, which is contraction.  This is the second manufacturing index to report contraction this week (the other is for the NY area).  The Initial Jobless Claims reported 229k applying for benefits last week.  We're starting to see potential for uptick in job losses, so we'll need to monitor this, as well as, manufacturing.  The BoE reported a .25% rate hike today, which was expected; but, the Swiss National Bank reported a 0.5% rate hike, which surprised the Markets.  Both Stocks and MBS are down today.  MBS started the morning down much lower, based on the actions of the European Central Banks; however, they have improved from early trade.  MBS is currently Down 39bps, so Mortgage Rates will come in a little worse compared to our rate sheets after close yesterday (which closed Up 131bps).  Pricing is almost to the opening of Monday's trading, but still well off from last week's positioning. Yields are similar to yesterday's positioning, at 3.33%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.




Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/15/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are a few items on the Economic Calendar today, but nothing is having any more impact than the FOMC Announcement.  But, we'll start with Retail Sales, which dropped by 0.3% in May.  Empire State Index, which gauges manufacturing activity in the NY region, contracted again in June to the tune of 1.2.  The NAHB Home Builders Index dropped from 69  in May to 67 in June.  This index measures the confidence level for Home Builders, whom are stressing over the higher mortgage rates.  So, now is what we've all been waiting on.... The FOMC Announcement!   The Fed announced a 0.75% (in lieu of the originally planned 0.5%) rate hike, bringing the Fed Funds to 1.75%.  The Fed Dot Plot indicated many more hikes for this year, which it jumped from previous estimate of 1.9% to 3.4%.  The Fed is aiming well above the Neutral level, which is between 2.0 - 2.5% range, in order to drive down inflation.  Earlier in the day, there was a surprise meeting by the ECB, which had the Markets attention.  Both of these occurrences moved the Markets back and forth.  MBS didn't initially do well after the release of the Fed's statement, but it drastically improved while Fed Chair Powell gave his press speech.  It's been hovering between 86-106bps, as yesterday's losses have been made up today.  Mortgage Rates improved and more inline with Monday's close.  Yields have subsided some, down to 3.33%.

**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be a good alternative for you or your client.  Contact me today!**

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/14/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation with the wholesale sector, rose 0.8% in May.  The Core PPI, which excludes food & energy, rose by 0.5% in May, as it's YoY dropped from 8.6% in April to 8.3% in May.  This index doesn't always get a lot of respect because many times those costs don't always get passed onto the Consumer; however, in today's high inflation environment, it's receiving more respect.  The Fed begins their 2 day meeting (FOMC) today, which they'll provide their Announcement tomorrow (around 11:15 am PST).  The Markets raised their odd of the Fed increasing their announce rate hike from a 0.5% to 0.75% hike tomorrow.  Personally, I don't think this will happen tomorrow, but could be announced for next FOMC.  Just from past experience with Powell as the Chair, he doesn't like to surprise the Markets, so I think he will maintain the 0.5% stance at this meeting, but communicate further hikes for future meetings.  that's just a personal thought; but, it's possible that he could surprise us tomorrow.  Also, The Markets raised the odds of a possible recession, if coupled with high inflation, then would be our worst nightmare (Stagflation).  Fingers crossed that this doesn't occur.  MBS is Down about 56 bps today.  This is on top of the Market closing down 144bps yesterday and down 73bps last Friday.  So, the Market is down over 250bps, which means that pricing for a No Cost loan last week will cost more than 2.5% points now.  This has pushed the average 30 year fixed loan up into the 6% range now.  We do have a solution for this, so if you're in need of a lower rate loan program, then please send me a message.  Meanwhile, Yields are at the highest place in the last 10-11 years; currently sitting around 3.45% now.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, June 13, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/13/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today, but the rest of the week does contain a lot of important data.  The most important day this week will be Wednesday, as the FOMC concludes and the Fed provides their announcement.  The Market Sentiment really soured after Friday's release of the CPI data and has spilled over into today's session.  Both Stocks and MBS are getting hit hard.  Investors are beginning to realize that Consumers (based on the Consumer Sentiment last Friday) feel like they're in a recession due to the high prices and are struggling to make it month to month.  Some are wondering if the Fed might revise their rate hike to 75bps, in lieu of the 50bps planned.  Personally, I don't think they will do so at this meeting; however, it's possible they could look into it for one of their future meetings.  I think they'd like to prepare the Markets for any possible moves and not to surprise them.  Friday, MBS struggled (at one point down around 100 bps), but closed down 73bps.  However, today it followed the trend that it started on Friday, as the Market is selling off to the tune of -132bps (it dropped further as I was wrapping up this video to -150bps).  To fully understand the bps, then it is best to know that 1 point is equal to 100 bps; so, our Mortgage Rates that were quoted on Friday at No Point will now cost you 1.5% points today.  Yields spiked to it's highest levels in more than the past 5 years.  It's currently 1.36% and worsening.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 10, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/10/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Inflation data came in with a nuclear explosion!  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in May, as it's YoY rose from 8.3% in April to 8.6%.  The Core CPI, which excludes food & energy, rose 0.6% in May, as it's YoY dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%.  Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment dramatically dropped from 58.4 in May to 50.2 in June.  As one could imagine, Consumers aren't happy about the spike in food and energy!  Investors are looking at this data and are realizing that Inflation may not have peaked yet.  This means that the Fed will need to (possibly) further tighten policy to get inflation back down.  Both Stocks and MBS are Down by a lot today.  MBS was down as much as 110bps, but currently sitting around 75-77bps.  This means that a No Point quote yesterday will most likely cost about a point today.  There are big swings in the Market today, so Lenders will be slow on any price improvements, in case they worsen again.  Obviously, Mortgage Rates have worsen today.  Yields spiked all the way up to 3.15%.  This is touching on the level reached last month, before it subsided.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 9, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/9/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rise to 229k this week, as it hits a 5 month high.  Markets reacted quickly to the hawkish ECB's announcement, which announced they will hike rates in July; end their asset purchases (reinvest matured bonds); and revised their inflation data higher in their forecasts.  This set the tone with the Markets in the EU in a negative manner, which trickled over to the US Market.  MBS is currently Down 23 bps, as it's been rising and dropping, like a seesaw all day.  The 30 year Bond Auction temporarily helped push up MBS, but it has dropped again thereafter.  Mortgage Rates have worsened slightly.  Yields have risen slightly to 3.04%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/8/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories rose 2.2% in April.  Both Markets are Down today, as Investors await inflation data on Friday.  They want to verify their beliefs that inflation has already peaked.  Meanwhile, oil continues to climb, reaching $121/barrel.  MBS is also competing with Corporate Bonds that being added to the Market.  It's currently Down 27bps, as Mortgage Rates worsen from yesterday's close; and fell below it's 25 DMA again.  Yields have climbed above the 3% level again; and is currently just under 3.03%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/7/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  As mentioned in yesterday's report, this week is light with Economic data, as today is one of the days without anything with merit.  So, the impact will come mostly from headline news and geopolitical this week.  Today, stocks are down on renewed concerns over the retail industry, as Target reiterated it's profit outlook and began taking preventive measures.  This set the mood in the Markets.  This is helping Mortgage Rates today, as the MBS is currently Up between 38-43bps.  Yesterday, we lost 53bps and closed below the 25 DMA; so, we are regaining most of the losses that were incurred from yesterday's trading this morning and pushing back above the 25 DMA.  We'll need to see if it can hold.  Also, even if we break above the 25 DMA, then within next week or so, the 50 DMA may be crossing the 25 DMA which will add more pressure (it will need to decide whether to go up or down).  Yields are back down below 3% at 2.98%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, June 6, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/6/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today; and the week ahead is pretty light.  However, Friday, the CPI will be released and this could have a big impact with the Markets.  The Markets are continuing to assess the Fed's Policy with the current and future economic landscape; and monitor any more of the talk about reducing tariffs, as a method to bring down inflation.  As I noted in the video, prior to the spike with inflation, the tariffs didn't seem to have much impact with inflation; so, it seems to reason that this response may not really do much.  Stocks are Up today after another bad week, which Investors are buying on the Dip today.  Meanwhile, this has pulled investment dollars from MBS, along with more Corporate Bonds taking up more of the investment dollars.  So, MBS is currently Down about 50-52bps, which means that Friday's No Point loan will now cost about a half a point in discount fees.  MBS is breaking below it's 25 DMA today.  On the inverse side, Yields spiked above the 3% range (last seen about a month ago); and currently around 3.03%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, June 3, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/3/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released several Jobs reports today for the month of May.  They reported that Average Earnings rose 0.3%, while the Average Workweek remained Unchanged at 34.6 hrs.  The Non-Farm Payrolls came in with 390k and an upward revision of 8k to April's data.  Unemployment Rate remained Unchanged at 3.6%.  Lastly, the ISM Services PMI dipped to 55.9%, which is still in expansion territory.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as they watch the data being released, listening to Fed Members on Fed Policy and CEOs with some pessimistic outlooks.  MBS dropped on the Jobs data, but the ISM data gave it a little boost.  Currently, MBS is Down 19 bps from yesterday's close.  This is enough for Lenders to have less favorable pricing on their rate sheets compared to yesterday.  Also, Yields have continued to rise, as it's now up to just a hair under 2.96%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, June 2, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/2/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP revised their April report lower to 202k (off from 247k).  It's May report came in (underwhelmingly) at 128k.  The Initial Jobless Claims reported 200k applied for first time benefits last week.  Labor Costs for the first Quarter were revised higher by 1% to 12.6%.  Although, we like to see people make more money, it's at the cost of higher inflation!  Productivity for the first Quarter was revised slightly better to -7.3% (from -7.5%).  Factory Orders only rose 0.3% in April, which is off from it's forecasts of 0.7%.  Overall, not a great day for economic data.  Microsoft announce a bleak forecast, which had the Markets listening.  We have a few Fed Speakers talking today; which Vice Chair Brainard did speak already and indicated that she doesn't want to see any pause with the rate hikes.  OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production for July and August, as production from Russia drops due to sanctions, which has the price per barrel still around $117.  After 2 days of negative movements in the Markets (both Stocks and MBS), Investors came back and have them in positive territory again.  MBS is ranging between both it's 25- and 50 DMA; and currently Up 13bps.  We got a slight improvement on our rate sheets today.  Yields are still sitting above it's 25 DMA, after breaking above the line yesterday, and around 2.92% currently.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Daily Market Report 6/1/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP Private Payrolls would normally be released today, but it was rescheduled for tomorrow; along with the Initial Jobless Claims.  Constructions Spending rose only 0.2% for April, as forecasts called for 05%.  The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1%.  This data is showing investors that the economy is doing well, so the Fed should continue it's course of tightening policy.  Fed Member Bostic cautioned the Markets that a pause after the next few rate hikes doesn't mean the Fed will bend to the Markets whims, as it fights to control inflation.  There will be a few other Fed Members speaking today, so the Market could move accordingly.  Meanwhile, the Fed will begin their Balance Sheet reduction today, which will add more pressure to Mortgage Rates, as they sell off Treasuries and MBS from their holdings.  MBS is currently Down 50 bps, as it challenges it's 25 DMA.  This is the same as a half point to a rate that you may have been quoted yesterday as No Point (now costs a half a point or half a percent of the loan amount to obtain that rate).  Meanwhile, Yields continue to spike and add more pressure to MBS, as it's beginning to break above it's 25 DMA at 2.94%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.