Thursday, October 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/31/19 Happy Halloween!  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 218k last week; and the previous week's data was revised higher by 1k (to 213k).  The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 0.7% in Q3.  This index can be a good indicator of inflation in the employment category.  Luckily, it was very tame.  The Personal Income rose 0.5% in September; while it's counter-part, the Consumer Spending rose 0.2%.  Inflation fell in September, as the PCE dropped from 1.4% to 1.3%; and the Core PCE dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, and their Target rate is 2.0%, so we're below it.  Manufacturing worsened in the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI further contracted from 47.1 to 43.2 in October.  Anything below 50 is considered Contraction Territory; as anything above, is considered Expansion.  Stocks are down this morning on news that an Chinese Official expressed doubts that a long-term deal can be done.  President Trump tweeted that they are on schedule to sign the first phase of the agreement and name a new location to meet, as it was cancelled in Chile due to ongoing riots, next month.  MBS has really rallied these past 2 days, which they're Up 23bps so far this morning; breaking above it's 100-, 25- and 50- DMA.  Mortgage Rates received a nice boost.  Yields have tumbled all the way down to about 1.70% now.

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