Friday, March 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/8/19 Today is the BIG Day for Jobs Data!  The Non-Farm Payroll surprised everyone with 20k new Jobs in February, whereas they were expecting it around 175k.  A closer look at this report shows that the weakness came from the  Hospitality and Construction Sectors, which can be heavily influenced by weather.  If you remember correctly, we had some pretty extreme cold weather in February (even MN had -65 degrees at one point).  So, this could be an anomaly, which we'll continue to monitor.  Also, keep in mind we had a HUGE spike in January, whereas the Jobs came in at 311k, when we were expecting around 175k.  We're still at a good point in Jobs, as we see the Unemployment Rate drop from 4% in January to 3.8% in February.  Also, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% in February, which is the highest increase since 2009.  Housing Starts beat expectations in January at 1.230 million annualized units; which is the same for Building Permits (future Housing Starts), as it beat expectations to 1.345 annualized units.  Stocks are down on the disappointing Jobs data, but also on news that China's exports dropped 20% in February.  This is along the line of signs pointing toward a Global Economic Slowdown.  MBS is near unchanged (-2bps), but had a late rally yesterday (closing Up 19bps), so most Lenders may price their Mortgage Rates better today.  Yields are near Unchanged, but slightly up by means of rounding up to 2.75% (vs rounding down to 2.64% at yesterday's close).

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