Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/24/21  Due to short week this week, we have a lot of data crammed into today.  We'll start with Building Permits, which improved (slightly) in October.  It went from 1.65 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.653 million in October.  New Home Sales had a pretty steep revision in September, going from 800k seasonally adjusted units to 742k.  In October, it was reported at 745k.  After revisions, it improved, but it's far from September's initial report.  Q3 GDP came out with it's 2nd look (final look will be in December), which moved up by 0.1%, to 2.1%.  Durable Goods Orders continued to show a negative trend, which it dropped by 0.5% in October; however, if you remove transportation, then it rose by 0.5%.  The drop in airplane orders, which are large orders, can really manipulate the numbers to look worse/better than what they really are.  Initial Jobless Claims broke below the 200k last week, as it reported 199k applied for first time benefits.  Personal Income rose 0.5% in October; while, Consumer Spending rose 1.3%.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 67.4 in November, according to the UofM Survey.  Like the CPI showed a few weeks ago, PCE shows a spike in consumer inflation for October.  The PCE jumped up 0.6% in October; while it's YoY rose from 4.4% in September to 5.0% in October.  When you exclude food & energy, then you have Core PCE (or also known as Real Inflation), which rose 0.4% in October; and it's YoY rose from 3.6% in September to 4.1% in October.  As I was working on this video, the FOMC Minutes were being released.  The Market was starting to worsen, as they were reviewing the release.  Fed Member, Mary Daly from San Francisco, had stated earlier in the morning that they Fed may taper quicker, if the inflation persists and jobs data continues to progress.  This statement may be a preview of the Minutes, and the Investors are preparing for it.  MBS were Down 11bps, but were trading approximately down 5-6 bps before the FOMC Minutes release.  Lenders had priced in worse pricing for Mortgage Rates today, but it could potentially worsen more.  Meanwhile, Yields had reached 1.69%, but subsided down to around 1.65%.  After the FOMC release, then it too, started to worsen; and it was up to 1.66% at the time of this video.  I won't be doing any videos the remainder of this week, so the next will be Monday!  Have a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving week!

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

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