Thursday, February 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/14/19 A lot to cover under the Economic Calendar today.  The Initial Jobless Claims continued it's increase in claims, as 239k applied for benefits last week.  This will pose a question if it bottomed out, as this could be a prelude to a recession.  Retail Sales were a HUGE disappointment for December, as they dropped 1.2%; and dropped 1.8% when you remove large ticket items (Autos), as this is their Control Group.  We received inflation news on the Wholesale level, which doesn't always receive much love, but can provide insight into future inflation levels for Consumers.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.1% in January, as it's YoY dropped from 2.5% to 2.0%.  The Core PPI (without food or energy) rose 0.3%; but it's YoY dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%.  Lastly, Business Inventories dropped 0.1% in November.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on the poor economic data posted today, even though we will overt another Gov't Shutdown, as President Trump is about to sign the Border Security legislation; and continued optimism on a US/China Trade Agreement.  MBS are back above the 25 DMA and up 14bps so Mortgage Rate will be better today.  Yields have fallen down to 2.66% so far this morning, still below it's 25 DMA.

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