Daily Market Report 2/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims moved from 217k from previous week to 225k last week.  It came in at forecast.  GDP came in a bit hotter than expected.  It came in at 2.6%, whereas, forecasts were calling 1.9%.  This report was for the 4th Qtr of 2018.  Manufacturing in Chicago improved in February, as well, which the Chicago PMI jumped from 56.7 to 64.7.  Even though the Economic data came in very good, Stocks are still down.  Geo-Political news is bringing it down.  MBS is down 16bps, which Mortgage Rates rose a bit this morning from yesterday's pricing.  Like it's counter-part, the 10 year Treasury, it's Up against it's 25 and 50 DMA.  Yields are now up to 2.71%.

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Daily Market Report 2/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Pending Home Sales jumped up 4.6% in January, as it points to a pretty strong Spring Home Buying Season.  Factory Orders rose only 0.1% in December, which disappointed, as it was forecasted to rise 0.5%.  Stocks are Down this morning, as they may be losing some steam (been in an Over-bought position since Mid-January).  Fed Chair Powell is giving his 2nd Testimony to Congress today.  Lighthizer is giving his Testimony to the House Ways & Means Committee regarding the Trade Talks with China.  Presidents Trump and Un are meeting in Hanoi today.  There appears to be some building tension between India and Pakistan, as Investors will watch to see if it escalates further.  MBS is down 12bps and testing it's 25 DMA.  Mortgage Rates rose slightly today on this decline.  Yields have risen to 2.69% and testing it's 25 DMA, as well.

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Daily Market Report 2/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have some housing data to report, which 2 of the items were from the delayed reports due to the Gov't Shutdown.  Housing Starts dropped from 1.214 million annualized units to 1.078 million.  However, the Building Permits rose from 1.322 million annualized units to 1.326 million.  Case-Shiller Home Price Index dropped from 5.1% to 4.7% YoY in December.  Consumer Confidence soared in February, going from 120.2 to 131.4.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell is giving his Testimony before the Senate this morning, which provided a boost to Stocks.  They began the morning in the Red after some disappointing Earnings results, but improved to Mixed (DOW is only index in Red), as the Fed Chair provided his thoughts on the Fed's decisions.  He stated that the economy appeared relatively healthy, but there were some "conflicting signals", which led to the decision to a wait and see approach with the interest rate movement, as well as, the Balance Sheet reduction.  MBS is up 5bps, which Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields have dropped to 2.65%.

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Daily Market Report 2/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only data to report from the Economic Calendar is from the delays due to the Gov't Shutdown.  The Wholesale Inventories rose 1.1% in December.  Stocks are Up due to recent activity/tweets regarding the US/China Trade Talks that continued throughout  the weekend.  President Trump tweeted that the March 1 deadline for the Tariffs have been lifted and a lot of progress has been made to warrant it.  It's appearing like we're nearing a wrap up of talks, as President Trump mentioned that he and President Jinping would complete the deal at Mar-a-Largo once it's reached that point of completion.  MBS is down 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields have risen to 2.68%.

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Daily Market Report 2/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no data scheduled on the Economic Calendar this morning; however, the day is fill with several Fed Speakers today.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's losses. President Trump is scheduled to meet with the higher level Chinese delegation today, as signs point to progress being made on the Trade Talks.  MBS is rebounding today, as well, as it's up 14bps.  Mortgage Rates have improved a little bit today.  Yields are now down to 2.66%.                                                                                                           

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Daily Market Report 2/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport:  A lot of data on the Economic Calendar today, which we'll start with the Initial Jobless Claims.  This week's report is important, as it's the Sample Week, which is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' with their Job Numbers.  This week it came in at 216k, which was much lower than it's previous week's reporting of 239k.  We've been watching this weekly number to see if it's bottomed out, as when it begins to rise, then historically a Recession has followed 100% of the time.  Durable Goods Orders disappointed in December, as it only rose 1.2%, which had expectations of 1.4%.  If you remove Transportation from the data, then it only rose 0.1%.  Another disappointment came from the Philly Fed, which is the Manufacturing data in the Philadelphia region.  It went from 17 in January to -4.1 in February, which is the first time it contracted in approximately 3 years.  We saw another decline in Existing Home Sales in January dropping from 4.99 million annualized units to 4.94..  Of course, the Holidays are historically slow periods, but there may have been another element that played a role, which is the decline in the Stock Market during that span.  Home Buyers may have altered their decisions as a result of a declining portfolio.  Leading Indicators dropped another 0.1% again in January.  Another data point that seems to be pointing toward a slowdown in the economy.  Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 54.9 to 53.7 in February; however, Markit Services PMI rose from 54.2 to 56.2 in February.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on not only the poor data from the US, but from Europe and Japan, as well.  This renews the worries over a Global Slowdown.  MBS is down 16bps, which Mortgage Rates slightly worsened.  Yields have climbed up to 2.69%.

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Daily Market Report 2/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We are still experiencing data being delayed from the past Gov't Shutdown, which will be released at a later date.  Today, however, we still have the FOMC Minutes to be released at 11am PST.  Many Investors commented that this will be the single most important news this week, as they decipher the about face of the Fed's softening on Rate Hikes and the Balance Sheet.  Prepare for some volatility after it's release.  Stocks are trading lightly in Positive Territory ahead of the Minutes.  MBS is nearly unchanged (down between 2-3bps).  Mortgage Rates remain unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Again, this can change after the FOMC Minutes have been released, as it may get volatile, so be cautious!  Yields gained 1 point, up to 2.65%.                                                                         

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Daily Market Report 2/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The confidence for Home Builders grew in February, as the Home Builders Index jumped 4 points to 62.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as the US and China further their talks in DC today with higher level officials.  Stocks have already priced in the optimism of the Talks.  It will probably take an Agreement before they further their rally.  MBS is up 13bps, which means that Mortgage Rates have improved.  Yields have fallend down to 2.64%.                                                                                                   
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Daily Market Report 2/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few economic data pieces to report from the Economic Calendar.  We'll start with the Manufacturing data in the NY region, which is the Empire State Index, which reported an 8.8 on it's February numbers.  This is up from 3.9 in January.  An improvement and better than most forecasts, but still a bit tame for what we'd like.  The Industrial Production dropped 0.6% in January; and Capacity Utilization dropped from 7837% to 78.2% in January.  Consumer Sentiment improved from 91.2 to 95.5 in February, based on the Gov't Shutdown ending.  Stocks are WAY Up this morning (DOW over 300), as news of continued progress in US/China Trade Talks (touted by both Presidents) and they will be continued in DC next week.  Fed Members have been speaking all week, which nothing was out of line to jostle the Markets, but Fed Member Brainard commented Thursday that the Fed might need to end it's Balance Sheet reduction later this year -this will bode well for Stocks and MBS.  Also, Spending Bill is supposed to be signed, but a new twist erupted when President announced the National Emergency to come up with the extra funds for the southern Border Wall.  MBS started the morning below it's 25 DMA, but has risen above it.  However, it is down 5bps from yesterday's close.  Mortgage Rates should be unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are currently at 2.66% and trying to buck it's downward trend.  If it's successful, then it will pressure MBS lower -thus higher Mortgage Rates.  Let's see how it plays out!

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Daily Market Report 2/14/19

MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot to cover under the Economic Calendar today.  The Initial Jobless Claims continued it's increase in claims, as 239k applied for benefits last week.  This will pose a question if it bottomed out, as this could be a prelude to a recession.  Retail Sales were a HUGE disappointment for December, as they dropped 1.2%; and dropped 1.8% when you remove large ticket items (Autos), as this is their Control Group.  We received inflation news on the Wholesale level, which doesn't always receive much love, but can provide insight into future inflation levels for Consumers.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.1% in January, as it's YoY dropped from 2.5% to 2.0%.  The Core PPI (without food or energy) rose 0.3%; but it's YoY dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%.  Lastly, Business Inventories dropped 0.1% in November.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on the poor economic data posted today, even though we will overt another Gov't Shutdown, as President Trump is about to sign the Border Security legislation; and continued optimism on a US/China Trade Agreement.  MBS are back above the 25 DMA and up 14bps so Mortgage Rate will be better today.  Yields have fallen down to 2.66% so far this morning, still below it's 25 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 2/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have inflation data to cover today on the Economic Calendar.  The Consumer Priced Index (CPI) remained unchanged from December to January, but did decline from 1.9% to 1.6% YoY.  The Core CPI (excluding food & energy) rose 0.2%, and remained at 2.2% YoY.  The Stock Market is Up this morning on growing optimism over a US/China Trade Agreement, as reports indicate that President Trump will soften his stance on the "Hard" deadline of March 1st, if talks progress enough that an Agreement is close.  Also, reports indicate that the tentative agreement on US Border Security will move along and avoid another Gov't Shutdown.  Saudi Arabia announced a cut in their oil production, so Oil prices are rising, as a result.  MBS is currently down 14bps and pushing below it's floor of support at the 25 DMA.  This has Lenders pricing Mortgage Rates a bit higher today.  Yields have climbed up to 2.72% and is fighting to break above it's 25 DMA and adding more pressure to Mortgage Rates.

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Daily Market Report 2/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have 2 items on the Economic Calendar today.  The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidences level within Small Businesses dropped from 104.4 to 101.2.  This is the  lowest reading since November 2016.  Part of the change was due to the Gov't Shutdown; but the ongoing #1 issue has been to locate qualified applicants for their job openings.  Speaking of Job Openings, they jumped from 7.2 million in November to 7.3 million in December.  Stocks are flying high today, as there was an announcement that there was a tentative agreement between both parties on the Border Security.  Also, there is optimism on the China Trade Talks.  MBS is down 9 bps, which will translate to a little higher pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yesterday's graph will look worse than it was, as the Bonds had their Rollover, which translated an extra 11bps worse pricing.  However, this doesn't affect the Rate sheet pricing.  It's just a reset on MBS when they start their next 30 day batch to sell on Wall Street.  So, their net loss yesterday was -8bps.  Meanwhile, Yields have climbed up to 2.68%.

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Daily Market Report 2/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Rather quiet morning, thus far.  There's no economic data to report; although, we do have a bit of important data this week (such as Retail Sales).  Stocks are Up a little bit this morning on optimism on Negotiations between US/China as representatives gather in Beijing, starting today; and between the 2 parties on US Border Security.  Both have deadlines approaching (Border Security is due by end of this week and US/China by March 1st).  MBS is down 11bps, which may lead to some Lenders to reprice Mortgage Rates to worsen a bit, as they stick in the middle of a wide range, and will be following how the Stock Market moves today.  Yields are at 2.65%.

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Daily Market Report 2/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Another quiet day for the Economic Calendar.  Nothing to report today.  Next week will be a bit busier.  We're winding down on the Q4 Earnings Reports, so we're not having as much effect from them in the Stock Market, as Investors begin toward the US/China Trade Talks.  Today, things are looking a bit sour, as there's been a few different reports out there that make it seem that an Agreement won't be happening any time soon, as it's reported that President Trump doesn't have any plans to meet with President Jinping before the March 1st deadline.  Also, comments by Larry Kudlow, stating that we're still very far apart on any agreement, especially on the enforcement.  Of course, this, along with yesterday's poor data from Germany/EU added to the sentiment in today's poor Stock Market showing, as all indices are in the Red.  MBS is only up 5bps, as there's some improvement, but not enough to notice in pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have dropped further, down to 2.64% now.

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Daily Market Report 2/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we only have the Initial Jobless Claims to report from the Economic Calendar.  Last week, it was reported that 234k people applied for benefits, which was lower than the previous week's 253k.  These may be holdovers from the holidays, but we'll watch this data closely to verify any movements higher, as it will be a leading indicator toward a recession.  Stocks are trading in the Red this morning, as Investors worry about the poor data out of the EU, as they are beginning to feel the slowdown has moved from China to the EU.  MBS is benefiting, as it's up 13bps, which is an improvement with the pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slid down to 2.66%.

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Daily Market Report 2/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Quiet day today.  No economic data to report, as few pieces weren't ready due to the Gov't Shutdown.  Stocks are taking their cue from last night's SOTU.  They are a bit worried over the tough stance with negotiations with the Chinese; and the uncertainty on negotiations within Congress over southern Border Wall.  Stocks are all trading in Negative Territory so far this morning.  MBS is currently  up 3bps and sitting in middle of a wide range.  Yields have slid down beneath it's 25 DMA and is now at 2.69%.  Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's rate sheet.                                                                         

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Daily Market Report 2/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have the Services Industries on today's Economic Calendar with 2 indices.  We'll start off with the Markit Services PMI, which remained at 54.2 in January; whereas, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 58% to 56.7%.  The Stock Market is Up on light trading, as many of the Markets in Asia are closed due to the Chinese Lunar New Year celebration.  Investors are looking at Q4 Earnings still, and tonite will be watching the SOTU for clues on any progress with Trade Talks with China and Negotiations with Congress over the southern Border Wall.  MBS is currently up 11bps, which should bode well with better pricing this morning (compared to yesterday's).  Yields have slid down to 2.70% and below it's 25 DMA. 

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Daily Market Report 2/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a light week, this week on the Economic Calendar.  Today is Factory Orders for November, which was due in December, but was delayed due to the Gov't Shutdown.  It dropped 0.6% in November, which was faster than forecasts of -0.2%.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the only index in Negative Territory, this morning.  They're taking their cue on Q4 Earnings Reports and will be looking for signs of progress on US/China Trade Talks, as we are drawing nearer to the deadline before the US places higher Tariffs (March 1st).  MBS is currently down 14bps and testing it's double floor of support.  Mortgage Rates have worsened on this decline.  Yields are rising (up to 2.72%) and testing it's 25 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 2/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot to go over today on the Economic Calendar, as we have a few reports added, due to the Gov't Shutdown.  The biggie today, is the Nonfarm Payroll for the month of January, which jumped to 304k, but the previous 2 months combined were revised lower by 70k; which brings the 3 month avg around 241k -still very good!  The Unemployment Rate increased from 3.9% to 4% due to the Gov't Shutdown.  Average Hourly Earnings rose modestly to 0.1% and dropped from 3.3% to 3.2% YoY; however, the Weekly Earnings increased from 3.2% to 3.5% -pretty significant jump, which Fed will watch for Inflation.  Manufacturing had improving numbers, as we have 2 indices to report.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.8 to 54.9 in Jan.  The ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 54.1% to 56.6% in Jan.  Construction Spending rose 0.8% in November.  Consumer Sentiment improved from it's initial January reading of 90.7 to 91.2; however, it dropped from December's 98.3 reading.  Wholesale Inventories rose 0.3% in November.  Stocks are Up on the Job data.  MBS is currently down 25bps, which as a result, Mortgage Rates worsened.  Yields climbed up to 2.69%.

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