Daily Market Report 2/26/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Personal Income jumped up to 10.0% in January and the Consumer jumped up 2.4%.  Meanwhile, Inflation still shows some tameness, as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in January, while it's YoY bumped up from 1.3% to 1.5%.  However, the Core PCE (excludes food and energy), which carries more weight because it's the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, remained Unchanged at 1.5% YoY after it (too) rose 0.3% in January.  The Fed's target rate is typically 2.0% for this index; however, it indicated that it's willing to expand it to 2.5% average over time.  The Chicago PMI, which measures manufacturing in the Chicago region, dipped from 63.8 to 59.5 in February.  Lastly, the Consumer Sentiment dropped from 79.0 in January to 76.8 in February (it did improve throughout the month, as it's initial reading in February was 76.2).  Stocks are currently in Mixed Territory, as the DOW remained the lone index in Negative Territory.  The big spike in Yields is the culprit behind the Market volatility this week.  One thing about Yields is that it provides a perception of Inflation, as an increase in rates is used to slow things down to stave off inflation.  Investors were concerned that the Fed would raise the Fed Fund Rate sooner, as well as pull back on their Asset Purchases.  But Fed Chair Powell had temporarily eased those concerns during his 2 day Congressional Testimony.  However, Investors began to disregard those sentiments, as the Markets became choppy again.  While stocks enjoyed the low interest rate environment, now investors are reevaluating their stock positions that are most affected by rising rates, which the Tech Sector has been hit the hardest thus far.  The higher Yields may bring more investors back to the table for Treasuries/Bond related investments.  MBS went thru a wild rollercoaster ride yesterday, as it closed Down 94bps, which is approximately 1 point (so a No Point loan would now cost 1 point, or 1% of the loan balance).  It's still very choppy, as you may see the wicks in the candlestick chart, but it's currently Up 2bps.  Mortgage Rates are about the same after yesterday's close; however, way off from yesterday morning, as most Lenders had multiple price changes to their rate sheets yesterday (for the worse).  Yields are also really choppy, as it's currently just  under 1.52%, but it's been going back-and-forth at 1.47% range.  Hopefully, today's PCE data helped to ease some concerns over inflation.  We'll see!

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/25/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Last week's Initial Jobless Claims report was revised lower, from 861k to 841k; and this week's report vastly improved to 730k.  December's Durable Goods Orders was revised higher, from 0.5% to 1.2%; and January's came in at 3.4% (hotter than it's 1.1% forecast).  When you remove "big ticket" items like military aircraft from the data (due to large numbers having such a big influence on the data), then we have the Core CapEx.  It's numbers for December was improved from 0.7% to 1.5%; and it's January's data came in at 0.5%.  The 2nd look at the Q4 GDP for 2020 came in a little higher than it's initial report of 4.0%, to 4.1% in February.  We'll receive the final revision next month (March).  Pending Home was revised higher for December (going from being down 0.3% to being up 0.5%), which led to a higher drop for January, as it dropped 2.8%.  Stocks are facing a big selloff today, after calming down the past few days on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell.  However, Yields are spiking higher today, reinforcing concerns for Investors; along, with comments by Fed Member Esther George, whom stated that inflation could rise once more people are vaccinated.  Stocks aren't the only ones selling off!  MBS was down 63bps when I started this report; however, it worsened (down about 76bps currently) after a very poor 7 year Note Auction.  Mortgage Rates have spiked on these Market jumps!  Yields have touched on a psychological level (of 1.50%), as it hit the 1.52% level.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/24/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales spiked to 923k seasonally adjusted units for January.  Stocks are back into Positive Territory after more dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell during his testimony to the House Committee today.  They started in the Red, then reversed into positive territory mid-day.  Also, other Fed Members are out speaking today, which their message seems to put Investors concerns to bed.  Johnson & Johnson had some good news from the FDA regarding their vaccinations, which they were approved to move forward; and soon (most likely) to be out to the Market.  MBS has had a rollercoaster type of day, thus far!  They started down nearly 50bps, then Up approximately 20bps (70bps swing); and now it's Down about 8bps.  Lenders initially came out with worse pricing early on, then re-priced for the better after the Market improvement.  Mortgage Rates should be similar to what we saw after yesterday's close (which improved during the day, to close +11bps).  Yields have jumped up to 1.38% after touching just over 1.43% earlier on.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/23/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have 2 HPI (Home Price Indexes) released today for the month of December.  The Case Shiller Index rose by 10.1% YoY; and the FHFA HPI rose by 11.4%.  These are the highest numbers since 2014.  Also, Consumer Confidence rose to 91.3 in February.  Stocks are Down today!  Fed Chair Powell provided his semi-annual testimony before a Senate Committee.  He aimed to ease concerns of hyper inflation and warned of long road to economic recovery.  Markets are still settling afterwards.  Meanwhile, MBS has come off it's lows for the morning (after starting the morning higher) and are currently sitting Down 13bps.  This is enough for Lenders to come out with worse pricing on their Rate sheets.  Yields are still sitting at 1.36%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/22/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Leading Indicators reported improvement of 0.5 for the month of January.  Stocks are a bit mixed this morning on the concern of higher Yields.  Stock valuations are coming into question, as the higher borrowering costs represents lower profits for Investors.  Inflation is also a concern, as the Fed may turn hawkish and raise rates and/or pull back on their Asset Purchases.  Meanwhile, MBS is still looking for any type of footing, as it continues it's decline (Down 36bps so far).  This has led Lenders to price in worse pricing for Mortgage Rates from last Friday.  At some point, we should be reaching a floor, which we can expect some sort of bounce back, but it is uncertain when we will hit that floor.  Yields are rising and have hit just under 1.36%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/19/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Markit Manufacturing PMI dipped slightly in February, as it went from 59.2 in January to 58.5 in February; also, the Markit Services PMI improved in February, going from 58.3 in January to 58.9 in February.  Investors liked the data for both the Manufacturing and Services Sectors and prospects of an improving economy.  Existing Home Sales jumped up 0.6% in January, as they moved from (a lower revision in December) 6.65 million annualized units to 6.69 million.  However, that December revision was lowered from 6.76 annualized units.  Stocks are up on the Markit data posted today, along with the (already priced in) geopolitical aspects of more Government Stimulus, lower weekly average cases and rollout of vaccinations.  However, MBS is taking another BIG hit this morning (similar to Monday), as it keeps sliding and Lenders keep re-pricing rates for the worse.  It's currently Down 38bps.  Yields have been climbing higher and trying to break above another Technical Level.  It's sitting just a hair under 1.35% now.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/18/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts pulled back in January, as December's data was revised higher to 1.68 million annualized units; and it dipped to 1.58 million in January.  However, Building Permits jumped up, from 1.704 million in December to 1.881 in January.  This is future Housing Starts.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area dipped a bit in February, as the Philly Fed Index dropped from 26.5 in January to 23.1 in February.  Jobless Claims took a few steps back in progress, as last week's report was revised higher to 848k (from 793k); and this week's report ccame in at 861k (about 100k higher than forecasts).  Stocks are Down again today.  Investors are running out of any catalysts to push stock prices higher (as most of the geopolitical events are already priced into the Markets); but Yields have been rising, and is a concern for higher costs (inflationary) for consumers and businesses.  MBS is currently Down 6bps, but were down much more early on.  Most Lenders priced in their Mortgage Rates with worse pricing (similar to Tuesday's pricing), as most of yesterday's gains were lost when they released their ratesheets.  Yields are currently sitting just under 1.29%, as they touched the 1.30% range earlier on.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/17/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales spiked to 5.3% in January, after a 1.0% decline in December.  Inflation for the Wholesale Sector spiked in January too, as the Producer Price Index indicated a 1.3% increase in MoM report in January; and it's Core PPI jumped Up 1.2%, bringing it's YoY Up from 1.2% to 2.0% in January.  This could be a result of pent up demand, as December saw a spike in cases and many states renewed more lockdowns.  Meanwhile, Industrial Productions rose by 0.9% in January.  The NAHB Home Builders Index, which measures Home Builders confidence, slightly rose in February, as it stepped up from 83 to 84.  Lastly, the Business Inventories increased by 0.6% in December.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as Yields spike to 1.30%.  Investors are digesting the ramifications of higher inflation data.  As such, MBS had a big selloff yesterday (closing Down 70bps); but has regained a small portion of that, as it's currently Up 13bps.  It's a slight improvement from it's close yesterday, but still well off from yesterday's open.  Yields have subsided some this morning; and are now down to just under 1.28%.  Investors are viewing these spikes as too much, too fast; and the Markets are digesting the information and re-evaluating their positions.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/16/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the NY region picked up in February, as the Empire State Index rose to 12.1.  Stocks are Mixed, as Investors begin to review their footing with upcoming Recovery period.  Lots of talk around Stimulus to raising Minimum wages to $15/hr to rollout of vaccinations and the lower case numbers.  A lot of this leads to Inflation, so Investors are concerned of the values in stocks, as well as, the possibility of the Fed raising rates and/or cutting their Asset purchases (possibly downsize their portfolio).  There is a big selloff with MBS, which it's Down about 49bps, so about 0.5 a point in fees difference from Friday's close.  Yields have spiked up to 1.29% now.  Needless to say, there was a bit of a spike in Mortgage Rates today.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/12/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Sentiment dropped to 76.2 in February, especially with the lower-income folks, according to the UofM Survey.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as the DOW remains to be the only index in Negative Territory.  We're heading into a 3 day weekend, so Investors are positioning themselves.  Also, they're watching on the progress of the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus, as they're expecting the full amounts to be approved.  There could be a correction, if it doesn't come thru.  Also, they're keeping an eye on the vaccinations, so it will be key for more reopenings in the economy.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 11bps (was worse earlier on), which will lead Lenders to price Mortgage Rates a bit worse than yesterday's pricing (when I state worse, then it's more like an .125% difference in the rate).  Yields are gaining steam and approaching 11 month highs, as it's sitting around the 1.19%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/11/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims had a revision higher from last week's report, going from 779k to 812k.  This week's report came in higher than forecasts, but lower than last week's revision, at 793k.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning, as Investors review Corporate Earnings; Jobs data; and yesterday's inflation data.  The inflation data helped stocks yesterday, as it provided data that inflation is not an immediate threat.  They're mostly hedging against the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package, as it is appearing to remain intact to passage.  MBS lost it's positive momentum yesterday, as it closed -2bps; and today, it's currently Down 2bps.  Depending when Lenders came out with their Ratesheets yesterday, could determine if they priced worse in today's Ratesheets.  So, Mortgage Rates will be between Unchanged and slightly worse than yesterday's Rates.  Yields have subsided a bit, and sitting just under 1.15%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/10/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, rose 0.3% in January; however, the more closely watched Core CPI dropped from 1.6% to 1.4% YoY.  The Fed would like to get this up closer to the 2.5% range they discussed earlier last year.  Lastly, the Wholesale Inventories rose by 0.3% in December, which may bode well heading into the New Year.  Stocks are pulling back a bit today, as previously, the indices were reaching daily new highs.  Now, it appears to be cooling for a bit.  MBS had a rollover, so the placement on the Chart doesn't reflect the true picture of where Mortgage Rates stand.  They're currently Up 6 bps, off from earlier highs.  Mortgage Rates will tend to look more like they did yesterday (Unchanged).  Yields have slid down, to just under 1.14%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/9/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidence level for Small Businesses whom make up the bulk of the US employment, came in lower for January; dropping from 95.9 in December to 95.0 in January.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as they take a bit of a breather today after posting new highs.  They've been pushed higher on progress being made with the new Stimulus Package that appears to be approaching the $1.9 Trillion that was being proposed.  MBS is rebounding a bit on the Stocks slight reversal.  They're currently Up 11bps, so there will be a slightly better pricing by Lenders on Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have slid some, to 1.14%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/8/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: This week is light on economic data; and today, there are none to report.  Stocks are Up again today, as last week's Jobs Report was very disappointing (obviously, bad news); however, Investors are viewing this type of Bad News, as Good News (in terms of the need for Government Stimulus).  The Stimulus Package, even though it will most likely be revised a bit, is gaining traction in Congress; and about ready for Senate approval.  MBS started the morning lower, but has regained it's losses; and currently sitting at Unchanged levels from Friday's close.  Mortgage Rates are Unchanged, as well.  Yields are skyrocketing, as it's trying to blast it's way thru 2 Technical Ceilings.  It's currently sitting around 1.16% range.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/5/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is the day for our BIG Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The Average Earnings rose by 0.2% in January, as the Average Work Week rose from 34.7 hours in December to 35.0 hours in January.  However, the Non-Farm Payrolls had a HUGE revision to it's December's numbers (going from -140k to -227k) and the January's data (pretty much) hit it's forecast with 49k.  Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate dropped from 6.7% to 6.3% in January.  As we're not seeing many new jobs being created in January, according to BLS, but we've been seeing a drop in the continuing Claims every Thursday; so, where are they going?  Perhaps, sitting on the sidelines(?).  Stocks are Up on the data, as it indicates more need for the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package with Congress (it's being reported to have been passed in Congress 51-50).  J&J will be meeting with the FDA late February regarding their Vaccines, which they believe they can rollout approximately 100 million doses in first half of 2021.  MBS started lower this morning, but has rebounded some to being Down by 2bps from yesterday's close.  Mortgage Rates should be relatively in line, or similar pricing from what we've been seeing the past 3 days.  This might set up a big move soon!  Let's wait and see!  Yields started higher and tried passing another Technical Level at 1.1985, but has lost it and has slid lower, below it's Technical Floor at 1.1557; sitting just at 1.1550.  We'll need to watch this for signs of possibly more pressure on MBS (adding to higher Mortgage Rates).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/4/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims improved this week, as it reported only 779k people applying for first time benefits; and last week's report was revised lower by 35k.  We're also seeing a decline in the continuing claims, which is good news, as more people are going back into the workforce.  Labor Costs jumped 6.8% in the initial Q4 Labor Cost Index; and the Q4 Productivity Index dropped 4.8%.  However, Factory Orders rose by 1.1 million in December (beating estimates of 700k).  Stocks are Up on the recent Jobs data this week, which we have the (big data) Bureau of Labor Statistics reports coming tomorrow.  Also, many of the companies reporting the Q4 Corporate Earnings reports are coming in better than expected.  Investors are feeling a bit better this week, even though they're keeping one eye on the COVID data and it's impact on the economy.  MBS is currently Down 5bps.  It closed Down 20bps yesterday.  Many Lenders didn't reprice for the worse yesterday, so they'll show the worse pricing in today's ratesheets.  Those whom did reprice yesterday, will most likely have similar pricing as their close.  Yields tested their next Technical ceiling earlier this morning, but have since pulled back.  We could see a potential pull back in Yields very soon, which will help out MBS.  Yields are currently at 1.14%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/3/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We will be seeing a lot of Jobs data this week, which today is the first of the data, provided by ADP, which tracks the Private Payrolls.  They reported 174k new jobs in January, which blew out the forecasts of 49k.  Also, they revised their December data with an improvement from -123k to -78k.  We also received a report from the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which measures the Services Industry (important because it represents 70% of the US workforce).  It jumped upward from 57.7 in December to 58.7 in January.  Both reports were hotter than expectations, along with some better than expectations on Q4 Corporate Earnings (especially from Amazon), which is leading a rally in the Stock Market today (also this week).  Meanwhile, MBS has been slumping as a result, and is currently Down about 9bps.  Most Lenders will price Mortgage Rates similar to what we saw yesterday.  Yields are testing their Technical Ceiling, which is currently sitting at 1.13% (technical ceiling is at 1.125%).  This will be important to watch, as it could push Mortgage Rates higher, if it remains above this level.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.