Friday, December 4, 2020

Daily Market Report 12/4/20 Today, we receive data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  We'll start off with Average Earnings for the month of November, which rose by 0.3%.  The "biggie", which is the Non Farm Payrolls had a lower revision for October, which went from 638k to 610k; and November was a huge disappointment at 245k.  Average Work Week Hours remained the same at 34.8 hours per week.  The Unemployment Rate dropped from 6.9% in October to 6.7% in November.  Lastly, the Factory Orders revised their September data from 1.1% to 1.3%; and it's October number rose 1.0%.  This is 6 consecutive months of growth in Factory Orders.  Stocks are Up today!  Normally bad job data would disappoint, but in this case, "bad news is good news".  Investors view this as more data to push Congress into more Stimulus to help the economy.  As a result, MBS is currently Down 16bps, which Mortgage Rates worsened by about an .125% to the rate today.  As we mentioned about more Stimulus, the weakens MBS and Treasuries, as more will be needed in order to pay for the Stimulus -More Supply, but not enough Demand.  This is giving Yields more ammo to rise, as it's challenging it's Technical ceiling and sitting just under 0.97%.

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