Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Daily Market Report 11/4/20 This week, we'll see Jobs data from Octobers numbers.  Today, we have the ADP Payroll, which (very much) underwhelmed us with 365k new jobs in the Private Sector.  This is after 749k was reported in September; and forecasts called for 650k in October.  The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Index dropped from 57.8 in September to 56.6 in October.  The Markit Services showed a completely different story, but we didn't have it on our calendar to report the actual number; but, it indicated that it rose in October.  The ISM is a more closely watched index, compared to the Markit index.  Stocks are WAY Up this morning, as Investors become clearer on possibility of economic stimulus; but there's some Uncertainty, as to whom will win the Presidential race.  The Senate seems to be intact with Republican control (even when they lost one seat).  This has been the stalemate for a much larger stimulus package, as the Senate wants a smaller package.  This has created more certainty for the Markets.  The House appears to still be under control by Democrats (even though they lost a few seats).  The counts are too close to call for a number of states for the Presidential election, so it will take longer to get any results; and this will most likely result in legal battles, which will delay the results of a winner.  Meanwhile, we are still receiving Corporate Earnings Reports, which have been decent; but nothing of note to report in this video.  The Fed begins their 2 day meeting, which was delayed by a day, due to the Election yesterday.  The FOMC will provide their announcement tomorrow, which we don't anticipate anything new from them.  MBS has leaped UP 56bps on the election results, which means that you'll find a fairly nice improvement in the Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have fallen considerably, Down to 0.77%, which they were Up to approximately 0.90%.  This is mostly the result of the election on the Senate seats, as it will appear that the next Stimulus won't be as large as what the House was offering.  Having less debt, is lowering the yields!

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