Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Daily Market Report 11/25/20   The 2nd reading for the Q3 GDP remained Unchanged at 33.1%.  The Durable Goods Orders revised their September numbers from 0.5% to 2.1%, but it came in at 1.3% for October; when you exclude Transportation, then it rose 1.3% in October.  Last week's Jobless Claims were revised higher from 742k to 748k, which this week's report came in at 748.5k.  The Continued Claims have dropped by approximately 300k too. Personal Income was revised from 0.9% in September to 0.7%; however, it dropped 0.7% in October.  Consumer Spending revised their September number of 1.4% to 1.2%, which October reported 0.5%.   The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) remained Unchanged in October; and it's YoY dropped from 1.4% to 1.2%.  The Core PCE (excludes food and energy -and is Fed's favorite gauge for consumer inflation) also remained unchanged for October; however, it's September report was revised higher from 1.5% to 1.6% for YoY and dropped down to 1.4% in October.  The Fed would like this number closer to 2.0% (and maybe even 2.5% for a duration).  New Home Sales for September were revised higher, from 959k to 1.002 million; however, it's October annualized units shrunk down to 999k.  The Consumer Sentiment slightly dropped from 77.0 to 76.9 in November.  Later today (around 11am PST) the FOMC Minutes will be released.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Investors cash in on profits after big day for DOW and S&P yesterday.  NASDAQ is lone index in Positive territory today.  MBS is Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates should be improved from what we've seen this week; and in close alignment to what we saw on Thursday/Friday of last week.  Yields are sitting at 0.87%.

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