Friday, July 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/5/19 The BLS released their Jobs report for June, which came in higher than the expected 170k.  The number came in at 224k new Jobs.  However, the Unemployment Rate ticked Up from 3.6% to 3.7%.  This was done, as a result of 335k new people came to the Labor Force.  Also, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% in June.  Good News means Bad News for the Markets however, as Stocks are well into the Red.  The great Job Numbers now may influence the Fed's Decision to cut rates in July. This will definitely eliminate the talk of a 0.5% cut that some were expecting; but there's a larger Group whom still believes the Fed may cut 0.25% in July, then see where the economy goes.  Inflation is being stubbornly low, and lower than the Fed's 2.0% target rate, so it's still highly possible that this may occur.  MBS is currently down 27bps, even testing it's 25 DMA.  We'll see if it closes back above it's Fibonacci line, which should provide a Floor of Support.  Also, Yields are rising toward it's 25 DMA and just above it's Fibonacci (or Ceiling of Resistance).  Due to recent trends, I believe these are just short-term reactionary moves by the Market.  I do believe Rates will continue to improve.  The movement of the 25 DMA will help in that matter!  So, Mortgage Rates worsened today!

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