Thursday, July 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/11/19 Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 209k last week.  Remember, this was a Holiday shortened week, so we could potentially see a higher number next week.  Next week's number will have added significance, as it will be the "sample" number for the BLS with their Jobs data.  Meanwhile, Inflation is still showing moderate levels via the Consumer Priced Index for the month of June.  The CPI went up 0.1%, so it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.6%.  However, the Core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% in June; and it's YoY rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning.  We have a few Fed Memebers speaking today, including Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, speaking before the Senate today.  He will have the same talking points, as yesterday's Congresssional Hearing, but we'll watch to be sure nothing else "pops up".  Also, there will be a 30yr Bond Auction today, which could move the Bond Market.  MBS is currently down 8bps and sitting on it's Fibonacci Level.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Meanwhile, Yields are stubbornly holding above it's 25 DMA.  We need to monitor this because if it continues to rise, then it will add pressure to MBS and Mortgage Rates will worsen.  It has a lot of room to the upside, if it elects to break the short-term trend; even though, longer term, I think it will drop more.

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