Daily Market Report 7/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP reported 156k new jobs in July, which is Up from it's 112k reported in June.  The Employment Cost Index rose only 0.6%, under forecasts of 0.7%, in Q2.  Annual Compensation Growth dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%.  The Fed likes reviewing this Index for possible Wage based Inflation.  It was a favorite for former Fed Greenspan.  This tells us that Inflation is tame.  Manufacturing in the Chicago region continued to contract, as the Chicago PMI reported that it dropped from 49.7 in June to 44.4 in July.  Any number below 50 is in contraction mode.  Stocks are lightly trading and in Mixed Territory ahead of the FOMC statement at 11:15am PST.  It is expected they will cut .25% from the Fed Funds rate, the first rate cut in more than a decade.  Investors will listen intently to Fed Powell's statement for any clues.  His statement could greatly alter the Markets today, so be on guard!  The US and China delegation continue with their Trade Talks without anything new to report.  MBS is currently Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates will be better this morning.  But this could be short-lived!  Be careful!  It will be based on how the Investors feel after listening and reviewing the upcoming FOMC Announcement and Fed Chair's comments afterwards.  Yields have slid down to 2.04% and is testing it's 25 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 7/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's a lot of data today on the Economic Calendar.  We'll start with the Personal Income, which rose 0.4% in June; and Consumer Spending (on the other spectrum) rose 0.3% in June.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.1% in June and remained at 1.4% YoY; however, the Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% in June and it's YoY rose from 1.5% to 1.6%.  The Fed's Target rate is 2.0%.  This is important to note, as it's expected the Fed will cut the Fed Funds Rates by 0.25% tomorrow.  The ECI report will be important for the Market, as they will want to gauge possible wage inflation. Case Shiller's HPI dropped from 3.5% YoY appreciation in April to 3.4% in May.  Consumer Confidence soared to 135.7 in June!  Pending Home Sales picked up in June at the tune of 2.8%.  Stocks are Down this morning, as they continue to cipher thru the Earnings Reports and watch the US/China continue their Trade Talks.  Expectations are low at this point, as neither side seem to want to budge on remaining differences.  The FOMC begins it's 2 day meeting today.  As mentioned, they're expected to cut it's Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% tomorrow morning (announcement will be around 11:15am PST).  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so there's not enough movement to have any price changes with Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.06%.

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Daily Market Report 7/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no scheduled data to be released today from the Economic Calendar; however, this week, we have a wide range of important data to be released (namely Inflation, housing and Jobs).  On top othat data, we have the FOMC, which begins tomorrow and is expected to cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% on Wednesday.  The US and China representatives are expected to meet for the first time tomorrow in China, as the 2 nations try to complete the trade negotiations.  It's not expected to have much progress done from just this meeting, but it provides some optimism for Investors that they're back to the table and talking.  There's still more Corporate Earnings Reports being released this week.  Currently, the Stock Market is trading in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the lone index in Positive Territory.  This week could be very volatile, so expect a possible rollercoaster effect.  MBS started the morning a little higher, but has since dropped 3bps below Friday's close, and sitting at it's Floor of Support.  Yields are a little lower too, as they reside at 2.06% now.

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Daily Market Report 7/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Q2 GDP rose 2.1%, which was higher than forecasts of 1.9%.  The Final Q1 GDP was 3.1%.  There were some good things out of this GDP, like the increase in Consumer Spending; however, the Businesses pulled back on their spending.  This report, along with (overall) positive Earnings Reports is pushing Stocks higher today.  MBS is Up 2bps, but has been testing it's double floor of support today.  There is no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.07%.  Next week can be a catalyst for MBS.  We have the FOMC, PCE and Jobs data.  Even though the Fed cuts rates next week, Mortgage Rates could have an adverse effect if PCE comes in hotter than forecast.  The arch enemy to bonds is inflation, as it erodes the bonds value.  So be cautious going into next week!

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Daily Market Report 7/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims dropped 10k this week to 206k people applying for Unemployment; other words, less people applying for Benefits, so it's an improvement.  Also, Durable Goods Orders jumped up 2.0% in June, after it dropped 2.3% in May.  Even after you remove Transportation, it improved 1.2%.  Stocks are trading in the Red today, as today is one of the busiest days for Corporate Earnings being released.  Also, the ECB announced they are planning for more measures of stimulation for their next meeting in September.  This will probably include lowering their interest rates to negative territory again and bond buying purchase program (in other words, more of the same -but without any results).  MBS tested it's floor of support earlier on, but is currently down 8bps.  It's not enough to have any change or effect on pricing for Mortgage Rates, which have been relatively the same range this whole week.  Yields spiked to 2.08%.

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Daily Market Report 7/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have both Manufacturing and Services Sectors being represented by Markit PMI flash Indexes being reported today.  It's Manufacturing dropped from 50.6 in June to 50.0 in July; whereas, it's Services increased from 51.5 to 52.2.  New Home Sales increased from 604k annualize units in May to 646k in June.  However, it is important to note that the number in May was revised lower, so it's 7% increase in June, is more like 3.2% (without the revision).  Still a good number, but need to point out the reason behind these spikes.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Coporate Earnings are influencing the Markets, most notably Catepillar and Boeing's very disappointing results (DOW is down over 100 so far this morning).  Also, Tech Stocks are being tested, as the DOJ is opening an Anti Trust Probe into the large High Tech Businesses Practices that are hurting smaller businesses.  It was announced that Lighthizer and Mnuchin will be going to China for their first face-to-face meetings since G20 Meetings, so there's some optimism growing.  MBS is Up 9bps, but it's not enough to change pricing  for Mortgage Rates.  We're about the same levels as Monday's.  Yields have come down from their last minute surge at yesterday's closing (2.07%) to 2.05% this morning.

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Daily Market Report 7/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.1% in May, and is Up 5.0% YoY.  The FHFA HPI is an index that measures home prices for home with Conforming loans.  May's numbers doesn't seem like a lot, but it was off a very good April that saw it rise 0.4%.  Existing Home Sales shrank from 5.36 million annualized units to 5.27 million.  This is a 1.7% drop; however, this number is a bit deceiving because May was a very strong Month (it was up around 3%) and was revised higher.  So, if there wasn't a revision, then the drop would have been 1.3%.  Not a lot of difference, but can't forget that we're coming off a very strong May.  The Media will harp on this negative, but you will know and understand the truth!  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory today, as they're mostly influenced with some strong Earnings Reports.  Also, Investors are looking ahead, not only to the FOMC at the end of this month, but to Thursday when the ECB meets.  There are rumblings that the ECB may cut rates at this meeting after the Fed made it clear they will at their upcoming meeting.  It is expected to be very dovish.  Also, Great Britain will have a new leader, Boris Johnson, whom is a hard-line Brexit.  It will be interesting how they proceed with their leave from the EU.  MBS is Up 3bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today, as we've been in a sideways pattern the last few trading days.  Yields are at 2.04% range.

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Daily Market Report 7/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data from the calendar to report today.  We will see a lot of Housing Data later this week, however.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory; however, the DOW has since turned Negative, so Stocks are Mixed.  There are further Corporate Earnings Reports being released all week.  China has reported that representatives from the US will be visiting Beijing for face-to-face meetings, perhaps this week.  Also, Oil spiked a bit after Iran captured a British flagged Tanker on Friday.  MBS are Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved this morning.  Yields are still residing between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level at 2.03%.

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Daily Market Report 7/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment slightly improved from June to July, as it went from 98.2 to 98.4, even though forecasts were calling for higher number, 99.0.  Stocks are in Positive Territory.  Microsoft is a Big Winner, as they blew out their numbers!  More Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  The Big news came from comments by NY Fed President Williams, whom spoke yesterday on the importance of cutting rates sooner than later.  As a result, both the Stock and Bond Market rallied.  Today, however, they're walking backwards and state the context of his comments yesterday were in reference to academic study and no bearing of the upcoming FOMC.  As a result, he's receiving a lot of criticism.  MBS is Down (currently 5bps, even though it started further down at -11bps), as a result of today's comments by a rep of Fed Williams.  However, they're now above the Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates received a Price Improvement yesterday, however, today, we're priced at the same levels as yesterday's close.  Yields are sitting at 2.04% and just above it's Fibonacci level and below it's 25 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 7/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: This week's Initial Jobless Claims rose from last week's revised number (from 209k) of 208k to this week's of 216k.  This week's number is important, as it will be used by the BLS with their Jobs numbers for July.  This will be released Aug. 2nd.  Manufacturing rebounded, "Big Time", in the Philadelphia region, as the Philly Fed jumped Up from being near contraction in June, at 0.3 to  21.8 in July, which is the highest number for this year.  Also, Leading Indicators show the economy beginning to slow down to -0.3% in June.  These numbers are usually good outlook for the economy in about 6 months.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning.  More Earnings Reports are being released.  Some of the Big Names mentioned were United Health and Netflix.  Netflix lost 126k subscriptions in the US last month.  Steven Mnuchin tries to calm Investors perception on the US' Trade Talk with China, that it's still ongoing.  MBS had a good rally yesterday and closed right at the Fibonacci level, which is our Ceiling of Resistance.  We've been testing it since early June.  We're sitting between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates remained Unchanged after yesterday's improvement, as they're just down about 2bps.  Yields fell down to it's 25 DMA and are sitting on this Floor of Support, which is at 2.07%.

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Daily Market Report 7/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.265 million annualized units in May to 1.253 million in June.  Building Permits dropped from 1.299 million annualized units in May to 1.220 million in June.  The Fed Beige Book, which reports the Fed's economic view of the various regions around the US, will be released at 11am PST.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning, as more Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  B of A seems to be getting the brunt of it today even though it appeared that it had a lot of positive aspects to it's report.  Also, President Trump tweeted yesterday that the US and China are still a long ways off from reaching an agreement, and the Tariffs are still on the table.  Investors are concerned and the sentiment is still reeling in today's Market.  As I mentioned in the video, I created this video early in the day, which the Market is just starting, so a lot can change since I created this.  Currently MBS is Up 11bps, which appears to be trending upward this morning, and sitting between the 25 DMA and the Fibonacci level.  This can lead to better pricing on Mortgage Rates this morning, as Lenders on the West Coast have not yet released their pricing.  Yields have slid down to 2.09%.

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Daily Market Report 7/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Both the Headline Retail Sales and it's sub-component without Autos had the exact reading for the month of July, as it continued the 0.4% MoM growth from May-June and June-July.  As we saw from previous Manufacturing Reports in June, the Industrial Production report was stagnant (0.0%) in June.  Capacity Utilization slide from 78.1% to 77.9% in June.  Business Inventories rose 0.3% in May.  Home Builder's confidence slightly rose in July from 64 to 65, as the NAHB Home Builders Index announces.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory after hitting highs yesterday.  NASDAQ and S&P are taking a bit of a breather, while the DOW continues to hit new intra-day highs.  Corporate Earnings Reports, especially for the Banking Sector, are taking center stage.  Most of the banks are hitting their lowered expected performances.  Profit Margins are shrinking and Loan Activity is down.  MBS is currently down 11bps, and has hit -12, so many Lenders have priced in a little higher Interest Rates.  They're still sitting between it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Yields have now climbed to 2.13%, which is still in middle of it's 25- and 50 DMA.  The 50 DMA sits around the 2.20%, so it's feasible that we see Yields reach this level before we see any further improvement (lower Yields).

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Daily Market Report 7/15/19

http://MikesDaily MarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region improved in July, as the Empire State Index rose from -8.6 to 4.3 -better than most forecasts of 0.5.  Stocks are currently in Negative Territory, after they initially started the day in Positive Territory.  Today, we got the Unofficial Start to Corporate Earnings Reports for Q2.  CitiGroup led off with great numbers, however, investors were disappointed with it's cuts in costs.  China's GDP slowed to it's slowest pace since 1992 at 6.2%; however, investors liked that the stimulus that China laid out appears to be effective, as their Industrial Production jumped from 5.0% tp 6.3% MoM and Retail Sales jumped Up 9.8%.  MBS is Up only 3bps and fighting overhead resistance at it's 25 DMA, which has become a Ceiling of Resistance.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting around 2.10% in the middle range of it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 7/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inflation remains moderate in June, as it rose 0.1%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  But if you remove uncontrollable variables, as food and energy, the we have the Core PPI, which carries more weight.  It rose 0.3% in June, however, it's YoY remained at 2.3%.  Stocks continue their Upward trend this morning, after Investors were satisfied with staements made by Fed Chair Powell during the past 2 days of Congressional Testimony.  A bad 30 year Bond Auction yesterday afternoon sank the Bonds/MBS, as it closed down 34 bps, and led Lenders to reprice for higher Mortgage Rates.  This morning, we're Up 9bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday afternoon's repricing.  Yields have climbed up to 2.12% now.  Both have broken their Trend lines, which will create a Short-Term Speed Bump before we see further improvements in our Mortgage Rates.  We may see a little more worsening before it gets better in the Short-Term.

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Daily Market Report 7/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 209k last week.  Remember, this was a Holiday shortened week, so we could potentially see a higher number next week.  Next week's number will have added significance, as it will be the "sample" number for the BLS with their Jobs data.  Meanwhile, Inflation is still showing moderate levels via the Consumer Priced Index for the month of June.  The CPI went up 0.1%, so it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.6%.  However, the Core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% in June; and it's YoY rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning.  We have a few Fed Memebers speaking today, including Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, speaking before the Senate today.  He will have the same talking points, as yesterday's Congresssional Hearing, but we'll watch to be sure nothing else "pops up".  Also, there will be a 30yr Bond Auction today, which could move the Bond Market.  MBS is currently down 8bps and sitting on it's Fibonacci Level.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Meanwhile, Yields are stubbornly holding above it's 25 DMA.  We need to monitor this because if it continues to rise, then it will add pressure to MBS and Mortgage Rates will worsen.  It has a lot of room to the upside, if it elects to break the short-term trend; even though, longer term, I think it will drop more.

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Daily Market Report 7/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories rose 0.4% in May. The FOMC Minutes will be released later this morning at 11am PST.  This report won't hold as much weight, as in the past.  The last meeting took place on June 16th; but since then, we had a terrific Jobs Report, which concerned Investors enough that they couldn't help, but wonder if it may alter the Fed's plan to cut rates in July.  Jerome Powell helped to ease those concerns today, as he speaks before Congress.  He stated that there are concerns of the uncertainty of economic growth and inflation receding.  Also, he sees Consumer spending rebounding and strong Jobs, but sees Businesses not reinvesting.  This is helping Stocks this morning, as all 3 indices are trading in the Green.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, which Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday's pricing.  They started below it's 25 DMA and right up against it's Fibonacci level.  This Fibonacci level has been very tough to consistently break and stay above it.  Soon, it will need to make a choice, as the 25 DMA is approaching it.  Yields are at 2.04%.  It is below it's 25 DMA and at it too is right up on it's Fibonacci level, which has been very tough to consistently break and remain below.  If it can consistently break below it, which I think it will soon, then we can expect to see Mortgage Rates continue to improve.

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Daily Market Report 7/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index dropped from 105.0 in May to 103.3 in June.  This index is a gauge with the Small Business sector's confidence.  Job Openings shrunk from 7.4 million in April to 7.3 million in May.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ remains the lone index in Positive Territory.  Jerome Powell is speaking on Stress Tests on Banks today, but will be meeting with Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.  Trading will expect to be volatile over the next 2 days, as investors weigh thoughts on rate cuts in July.  Right now, as stocks seem a bit risky, they're being dropped a bit to minimize their risk.  There were Preliminary Tariff discussion proposed on Steel from Mexico and China, as counter-measures to Anti-Dumping.  Also, trade tensions are heating up between S Korea and Japan that may affect Electronic Makers, like Apple and Huawei.  The dispute stems from a recent Court ruling in S Korea that favors retribution on Nippon Steel to pay for it's forced labor during the early 1900's.  Japan is upset that the Gov't didn't intervene, as they felt the retribution was paid and resolved in 1965.  Meanwhile, MBS is down 3bps and drifting toward it's 25 DMA.  Currently, there's No Change to Mortgage Rates; however, we want to watch this!  If we drop below the 25 DMA, then it's next support is about 50bps lower at the 50 DMA.  Yields are adding to the pressure, as they are pushing up against it's 25 DMA and sitting at 2.04%.

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Daily Market Report 7/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic news scheduled on the Calendar today.  Stocks are trading in the Red this morning, as Investors are repositioning their thoughts on the upcoming FOMC at the end of the month.  The Jobs data on Friday were better than expected, which thwarted any notion of a 0.5% Rate Cut; however, I do think the Fed still may cut (by 0.25%) at it's upcoming meeting.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speaki 3 times, so Investors will be listening to him very carefully of any clues.  MBS is currently Up 6bps, after it pulled back from earlier gains, so I don't think you'll see any change in Lender Pricing for Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are currently hanging just beneath it's Ceiling of Resistance at 2.03%.

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Daily Market Report 7/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS released their Jobs report for June, which came in higher than the expected 170k.  The number came in at 224k new Jobs.  However, the Unemployment Rate ticked Up from 3.6% to 3.7%.  This was done, as a result of 335k new people came to the Labor Force.  Also, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% in June.  Good News means Bad News for the Markets however, as Stocks are well into the Red.  The great Job Numbers now may influence the Fed's Decision to cut rates in July. This will definitely eliminate the talk of a 0.5% cut that some were expecting; but there's a larger Group whom still believes the Fed may cut 0.25% in July, then see where the economy goes.  Inflation is being stubbornly low, and lower than the Fed's 2.0% target rate, so it's still highly possible that this may occur.  MBS is currently down 27bps, even testing it's 25 DMA.  We'll see if it closes back above it's Fibonacci line, which should provide a Floor of Support.  Also, Yields are rising toward it's 25 DMA and just above it's Fibonacci (or Ceiling of Resistance).  Due to recent trends, I believe these are just short-term reactionary moves by the Market.  I do believe Rates will continue to improve.  The movement of the 25 DMA will help in that matter!  So, Mortgage Rates worsened today!

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Daily Market Report 7/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP had a revision for it's May's numbers, which was revised higher from it's initial of 27k to 41k.  It's numbers rose in June, from 41k to 102k; but below it's estimations, which were closer to the 160-180k range.  Initial Jobless Claims, also, had a revision from it's report last week, going from 227k to 229k.  So, the Jobless Claims dropped from 229k to 221k this week.  The Markit Services PMI rose from 50.7in May to 51.5 in June.  However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 56.5% in May to 55.1% in June.  Factory Orders continued their contraction by dropping by 0.7% in May (after dropping by 1.2% in April). The Stock Market is Up this morning on news that Christine Lagarde, whom is President of the IMF, will replace Mario Draghi, as the Head of the ECB when the time Draghi leaves his post.  Both Markets liked this news, as Draghi has demonstrated to be super Dovish, and it's believed that Lagarde will follow his path.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates will improve again today.  Yields are down just a hair below 1.95%.

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Daily Market Report 7/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning, after yesterday's rally on the euphoria on the agreement between US and China to go back to the table for their Trade Talk.  Now Wallstreet is waiting on Job Numbers that will be released on Friday.  Stocks are high now, so they don't want to over-extend themselves, if the economy doesn't show that it's strong enough to support it's current levels.  Also, US and EU are bickering about subsidies to Aerobus and Boeing, which is translating to some additional Tariffs.  OPEC and Russia met and agreed to cut oil production to drive up prices, so gas prices look to rise again in the near future.  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Up 14bps.  It was lower and has worked it's way up.  If it can sustain this level today, then you may see Lenders come out  with better pricing on Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have slipped down to 2.00% now.

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Daily Market Report 7/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.1 in May to 50.7 in June.  ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 52.1% in May to 51.7% in June.  Globally, many countries (like China, Japan and Germany) are contracting in Manufacturing.  Constructions Spending dropped 0.8% in May.  This is much lower than it's forecasts of +0.3%.  Stocks are trading well into the Positive Territory, as they are feeling good after the meeting between President Trump and President Xi.  Apparently, there's a truce, and they'll pretty much go back to negotiations from where they left off.  The restrictions on Huawei will be lifted somewhat and China will buy large amounts of Farm goods from US.  Not much details have been released about the talks.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so there's no change to Mortgage Rates today.  Yields are trying to rise again, which they're currently sitting at 2.01%.

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