Thursday, March 31, 2022

Daily Market Report 3/31/22  Today is Day 2 of March Jobs Data, which the Initial Jobless Claims rose back above 200k, at 202k last week.  Also, The Challenger Layoffs (Job Layoff Announcements) jumped up by approximately 6 million.  Something we'll need to watch, as that's a pretty big spike with job losses.  Tomorrow will be the Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  Personal Income rose by 0.5% in February, which Consumer Spending rose only 0.2%.  Probably our biggest impactful data this week is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, which gives it such an high impact; especially when one of the biggest concerns with the Markets has been high inflation.  The PCE rose by 0.6% in February, while it's YoY rose to 6.4%.  The Core PCE rose 0.4%, while it's YoY rose to 5.4% (slightly below forecasts).  Because this settled in slightly below forecasts, the Market is reacting ok with the news.  Lastly, the manufacturing in the Chicago region spiked in March, as the Chicago PMI reported that it jumped from 56.3 in February to 62.9 in March.  Investors are reviewing the poor Q1 in the Stock Market, along with the high inflation data; war between Ukraine/Russia; and the renewed lockdowns in China.  However, one piece of news has helped a little bit, and that is the announcement that the US will release about 31% of their reserved oil supply to reduce the gas prices.  Stocks are in Negative Territory; however, this is helping MBS today, which is Up about 5bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's close, but this helped in the manner that it might help against inflation.  Meanwhile, Yields have slid down to about 2.32% today.

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