Thursday, June 3, 2021

Daily Market Report 6/3/21  The ADP released it's May Jobs data, which the Market it obsessing over today.  It came in with 978k new private jobs.  Also, the weekly Jobless Claims broke below 400k with 385k applying for First Time Benefits for last week.   However, there is a caveat (in my opinion).  The ADP revised their April Jobs data lower, from 742k to 654k.  The Challenger layoffs (announced layoffs) rose from 22.913 to 24.586 in May.  Also, the Continued Claims revised last week's report from 3.602 to 3.738 million; and this week's report came in higher at 3.771 million.  The Media is only reporting the HOT number, but not really mentioning some of these other data points that are important.  To continue with the economic reports, the final revisions for Labor Costs dramatically shifted higher for Q1.  The previous report showed a drop of 0.3%; however, the final came in at 1.7%.  On the other hand, Productivity remained at 5.4% for Q1.  Lastly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI exploded to 64.0, which is highest on record.  As for the Stock Market, they were all in red until DOW rebounded and is currently in positive territory.  It liked the reported economic data.  The Fed Beige Book was released yesterday, which indicated that the economy is growing at moderate pace, but do face labor and supply shortages.  Also, the inflationary data is transitory.  Otherwise, pretty much what we've known!  MBS dropped lower on the day, after the ADP report was released, and is now Down 14bps (just above it's 50 DMA).  This has caused Lenders to reprice this morning to a little worse pricing on their ratesheets.  Yields have spiked up (past the 3 previous levels - 25- and 50 DMA and Technical level) to just under 1.63%.

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