Thursday, August 27, 2020

Daily Market Report 8/27/20 Initial Jobless Claims improved from last week's report to 1.006 million people applying for Unemployment for the first time.  The second look of Q2 GDP dropped from -32.9% to -31.7%.  The final revision will come next month.  Pending Home Sales continue to show a robust Market, as it increased 5.9% in July (MoM).  Stocks were in Positive Territory early on, even after Fed Chair Jerome Powell presented his speech during the Jackson Hole Summit.  However, it just started to become mixed, as much of the Market left it's earlier highs and NASDAQ dipped into the Red.  I believe the Market is reassessing it's position after the new policy statement by the Fed Chair.  Essentially, he stated they'll be shifting from a strict 2% inflation target rate to an average of 2% inflation rate.  They will emphasize jobs.  However, they won't hesitate to jump in with higher rates to stave off inflation, if it becomes out of hand.  This news was ok with the MBS/Bond Market, but when stocks started to take off, then investment dollars flowed over from MBS/Bond to Stocks.  Currently, MBS is Down 19bps and testing it's 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rate worsened from yesterday's pricing.  Yields have dramatically climbed and currently testing it's ceiling.  This ceiling is important, as it has held strong in the past; thus, keeping Mortgage Rates low.  If it breaks above this level, then it will add additional stress to MBS and Mortgage Rates will rise.  Yields are currently sitting just under 0.74%.

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