Thursday, January 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/31/19 We have a few important data releases being delayed due to the recent Gov't Shutdown (like PCE, Fed's favorite gauge for Inflation), but we do have some other important data to report from the Economic Calendar.  We'll start off with the Initial Jobless Claims, which spiked to 253k.  This spike is most likely due to Seasonal work from the Holidays, which we see these types of anomolies during this part of the year, and should see this faze out.  The Employment Cost Index, which measures the Employers Costs behind Employee's Wages, increased 0.7% in the 4th Qtr, and moved up from 2.8% to 2.9%.  This is the highest reading in 11 years.  The Manufacturing data shrank a bit in the Chicago region, which the Chicago PMI dropped from 65.4 to 56.7 in January.  New Home Sales had a very large spike in November, which it jumped from 562k in October, to 657k (with forecasts around 563k).  Stocks are in Mixed Territory (DOW is the lone index in the Red, as it may be taking a breather from it's big rally yesterday), as more good Q4 Earnings Reports are released.  MBS is rallying today, as it approaches it's next ceiling of resistance, is up 20bps.  Today's rally, combined with yesterday's rally, will provide a nice little boost to pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  But be cautious (might even want to lock your rate) ahead of tomorrow's Job's numbers, which is expected to be a good number.  Meanwhile, Yields have dropped further, to 2.65% this morning.

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