Daily Market Report 1/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few important data releases being delayed due to the recent Gov't Shutdown (like PCE, Fed's favorite gauge for Inflation), but we do have some other important data to report from the Economic Calendar.  We'll start off with the Initial Jobless Claims, which spiked to 253k.  This spike is most likely due to Seasonal work from the Holidays, which we see these types of anomolies during this part of the year, and should see this faze out.  The Employment Cost Index, which measures the Employers Costs behind Employee's Wages, increased 0.7% in the 4th Qtr, and moved up from 2.8% to 2.9%.  This is the highest reading in 11 years.  The Manufacturing data shrank a bit in the Chicago region, which the Chicago PMI dropped from 65.4 to 56.7 in January.  New Home Sales had a very large spike in November, which it jumped from 562k in October, to 657k (with forecasts around 563k).  Stocks are in Mixed Territory (DOW is the lone index in the Red, as it may be taking a breather from it's big rally yesterday), as more good Q4 Earnings Reports are released.  MBS is rallying today, as it approaches it's next ceiling of resistance, is up 20bps.  Today's rally, combined with yesterday's rally, will provide a nice little boost to pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  But be cautious (might even want to lock your rate) ahead of tomorrow's Job's numbers, which is expected to be a good number.  Meanwhile, Yields have dropped further, to 2.65% this morning.

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Daily Market Report 1/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a few items on the Economic Calendar today.  The first item is the ADP Employment data, which reported 213k jobs in January.  December was revised lower from 271k to 263k.  This is the first Jobs data that we'll see this week.  Next is Initial Jobless Claims (tomorrow) and the BLS' Jobs Report on Friday.  Second item is the Pending Home Sales, reported by NAR, which dropped 2.2% in December.  NAR's Chief Economist forecasts a positive outlook for Home Sales in 2019.  The early part of the year is looking promising!  Stocks are Up this morning on Positive Earnings Reports and Outlook.  The FOMC will be wrapping up their 2 day meeting and having an Announcement at 11:30am PST today.  They are not expected to raise rates, as they've recently indicated that they'll be patient.  Investors will look for rate forecasts (Dot Plot) for 2019 and any comments about the Balance Sheet (QT), which seems to be on the table now.  MBS is currently down 6bps and fighting to stay above it's double layer of support, which they broke above yesterday.  Yields are up to 2.73% and trying to break above it's 25 DMA after falling below it yesterday.  Mortgage Rates are about the same as yesterday's pricing.

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Daily Market Report 1/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A few items on the Economic Calendar today.  The Case Shiller HPI dropped from 5.3% to 5.2% in November.  Don't let the Media fool you!  Home Prices are still rising, BUT at a slower pace on Year over Year basis.  NOT the drop, as the Media likes to portray!   It will be interesting to see the numbers for the Spring, as it seems like Buyers are out shopping and buying since the holidays finished.  Also, on the Calendar is the Consumer Confidence, which dropped from 126.6 to 120.2.  Most likely a result from the prolonged Gov't Shutdown.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory this morning, as the DOW is the only index in Positive Territory.  Earnings and Outlook are taking center stage in Trade today.  Also, reports out on US rolling out criminal charges on Huawei for stealing Trade Secrets from US Business Partner and breaking sanctions on Iran.  This could put a big wrinkle in US/China Trade Talks!  The Fed is beginning their 2 day (first of 2019) FOMC meeting today, which they will have their announcement tomorrow at 11:30am PST.  No rate hike is expected, but Investors will review the Dot Plot for Rate Hike forecasts and comments about the Balance Sheet.  Later today, the British Parliament will be voting on an amendment to the Brexit proposal.  MBS is currently up  6bps.  It is now above it's 25 DMA and fighting to get above the next layer, Fibonacci level.  If it can break above and stay above it, then Mortgage Rates have a chance for more improvement.  There should be better pricing today for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slipped to 2.72% and is trying to stay above it's 25 DMA.  If it breaks below it, then it could only help MBS to improve.

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Daily Market Report 1/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport:  There's nothing to report from the Economic Calendar today, as the Markets are following the Stock Market and Geo-Political news today.  Caterpillar missed it's numbers, which started the Stock Market's drop this morning; and all of the uncertainty of the Temporary Gov't Shutdown, Trade Talks with China, FOMC, Tech Heavy Earnings Report week ahead, etc.. is leading to a sour sentiment with investors.  MBS has been up between 3-5bps thus far, still below it's 25 DMA.  Yields are hanging at 2.75%, and still above it's 25 DMA.  There's no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates this morning.

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Daily Market Report 1/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Due to the Gov't Shutdown, there are no Economic Data to provide that were on the Calendar; so, whenever they re-open, then one can assume there will be a plethora of delaye data to be released.  Meanwhile, on the Headline News, Stocks are rising on very good Corporate Earnings and Upbeat Management Conference Calls.  China is addding more Stimulus to their Economy.  And there are reports that the President is drafting a National Emergency Order to build the Wall; thus, hopefully ending the political standoff and re-open the Gov't.  MBS are down about 8bps and below it's 25 DMA again; now, there's a double ceiling above, which may make it (shor-term) more difficult for Mortgage Rates to improve.  Yields are up to 2.75% and fighting to remain above it's 25 DMA, but it's been a tough ceiling of resistance for them.

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Daily Market Report 1/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have several items on the Economic Calendar today.  We'll start with our Weekly Jobless Claims, which last week's numbers were revised lower from 213k to 212k; this week it came in much lower at 199k, which is (from my understanding) the lowest reading since 1969.  The Markit Manufacturing Index showed some improvement in January, rising from 53.8 to 54.9.  However, the Markit Services Index declined from 54.4 to 54.2.  Also declining is the Leading Indicators.  It dropped 0.1% in December.  Stocks are currently Up, but did start lower, as Investors initially looked at the Macro Economic Outlook, as Wilbur Ross commented that the US and China Trade Negotiations are still "miles and miles apart" on their Agreement.  Also, adding to sentiment, was comments by ECB President Mario Draghi, whom mentioned that the balance of risks went from being balanced in December to becoming unbalanced to the downside today.  Investors are comparing US Corporate Earnings Reports to the Macro News; and so far, the domestic news seems to be outweighing the Global news.  Currently, MBS is up 9bps and trying to break back above the 25 DMA.  It's not quite enough to improve pricing for Mortgage Rates, but could eventually (depending upon how stocks do today).  Yields have slipped to 2.72% and fell below it's 25 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 1/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Rather quiet day on the Economic Calendar, as the FHFA Home Price Index released their data for November, which showed an improvement of 0.4% for the month, and improvement from 5.7% to 5.8% YoY; so, home prices are still rising.  Stocks are rallying on some strong Corporate Earnings releases today.  MBS started the morning much lower and below it's 25 DMA, but has improved a bit and is currently down 6bps and testing the 25 DMA.  Yields have risen to 2.77% and is also testing it's 25 DMA.  Mortgage Rates are about the same as yesterday, but you may want to lock your loan, if you are currently in any transaction, as we may face further deterioration in the short-term.

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Daily Market Report 1/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we only have the Existing Home Sales on the Economic Calendar, which slowed up from 5.32 million in November to 4.99 million annualized units in December.  A lot of this can be contributed to the higher interest rates, which started it's rise in October, then started it's decline in late December; also, the Government Shutdown may have played a partial role, which home buyers need certain services from the Government, which may have delayed the process.  Stocks are down this morning, as the IMF reduced it's Economic Forecast from 3.7% to 3.5%; and China released Economic data that shows it's slowest pace in 30 years, as the President warns his Cabinet of the dangers of this slowdown.  Also, reports show the US may formally request extradition of the Hauwei CFO from Canada, which may further complicate talks with China.  Stocks are down on the Geo-Political news, as MBS is up 13bps for some relief in pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have dropped down to 2.75%.

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Daily Market Report 1/18/19

http://DailyMarketReport.com: We have a few items on the Economic Calendar today.  The Industrial Production rose 0.3% (in line with forecast) in December.  Capacity Utilization rose from 78.6% to 78.7% in December.  Meanwhile, Consumer dropped from 98.3 to 90.7, which is most likely due to sentiment of the prolonged Gov't Shutdown.  Stocks are on fire this morning, as a WSJ report came out yesterday, which the White House refuted, that the US Negotiators my hold back on the Tariffs on the Chinese, as a gesture of Good Faith.  Investors are feeling very optimistic about it, as the Stock Market continues to heat up!  MBS broke thru an important floor of support yesterday, and is testing it's next floor ( the 25 DMA).  As a result, Mortgage Rates rose today.  Yields are climbing today, and are currently at 2.79%.                                                                                       

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Daily Market Report 1/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts and Building Reports data will be delayed due to the Gov't Shutdown.  Today, we have the Weekly Jobless Claims, which came in at 213k.  Today's number is important because it represents the "Sample" number for the BLS' Jobs Report for January, which should look strong based on this number.  Also, Manufacturing improved in the Philly area, which the Philly Fed Index increased from 9.1 to 17.  This was on the heels of a disappointing number for the NY area yesterday.  Stocks started trade in the Red, but have since improved to Mixed.  Banks continue to disappoint in Q4, as Morgan Stanley missed, and comments by French Bank Societe Generale, only reinforced what most Banks are stating is a poor Capital Markets is dragging their numbers down.  MBS is currently down 6bps and testing the floor of support again.  Yields have risen to 2.74%.  Mortgage Rates have remained steady most of this week, as it trades in a sideways pattern.                                                                       

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Daily Market Report 1/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Because of the Gov't Shutdown, we're not receiving a full report of Economic Data, such as Retail Sales, which would have been released today.  However, the Home Builder's Index shows it's confidence rising in January from 56 to 58.  Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released, which will allow Investors to review the Micro Economics of the US, as each regional Fed reports it's findings.  The Stock Market is trading in Positive Territory, as BofA and Goldman Sachs have hit their Q4 numbers.  Also, lifting the Investors moods are news that China will be injecting $83 Billion into their Economy.  Later today, there will be a Vote of No Confidence for Theresa May in the UK after the defeat of her Brexit proposal yesterday.  It is expected that she will survive the vote.  MBS is down 6bps this morning and testing the Floor of Support.  Rates are about the same as it's been all week, as it's been trading in a Sideways pattern.  Yields have climbed up to 2.73%.                                                               

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Daily Market Report 1/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: On today's Economic Calendar is Inflation news in the Wholesale Sector for the month of December.  The Producer Price Index dropped 0.2%, while the Core PPI (excluding food & energy) dropped 0.1%.  Manufacturing data from the NY region had a sharp decline, as the Empire State Index dropped from 11.5 to 3.9 in January.  The Stock Market is trading in Positive Territory this morning, even on the heels on disappointing numbers from Chase (2nd large bank in a row to report), as China announces Stimulus Package to boost the Markets.  Later tonight, the UK Parliament will vote on the Brexit proposal, which doesn't seem too popular.  Both MBS and Yields are sitting in Unchanged Positions (moving side-ways), so there's been no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates.                                                                                                           
 If you want update on the Market throughout the day, then follow me on Twitter @MikeBjork                                                                                 
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Daily Market Report 1/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic news to report today.  The Market is reacting to disapppointing Import/Export Data from China, which is re-hashing Investors' concerns over a Global Economic Slowdown.  Also, Q4 Corporate Earnings Reports start off the week, which Citi Group missed and is bringing down the Financial Sector.  The Gov't Shutdown is ongoing, which is now the longest on record.  Stocks are Down on the disappointing news from China and some of the Q4 Corporate Earnings Reports that were released.  MBS is currently unchanged, along with Yields (2.70%) from Friday's close, so pricing on Mortgage Rates remain the same.                                                                                         
For More Updates throughout the day, then Follow Me on Twitter @MikeBjork                                                                                                    
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Daily Market Report 1/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, only the Consumer Price Index data was released on the Economic Calendar for the month of December.  CPI dropped 0.1% from November, and it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.9% due to the drop in Oil prices.  The Core CPI (removing food and energy) rose 0.2%, which it's YoY remained unchanged at 2.2%.  This report is important to the Fed when gauging inflation on the consumer level, even though the PCE is favored more so.  This is the data that helps to determine if they continue with their rate hikes.  They like to see that the YoY level to keep at the 2.0% level, which is healthy for the economy.  Stocks are rising off their earlier lows this morning (still in negative territory at the time this was created).  MBS is benefitting from the "flight to safety", as investment dollars are moving from Equities to Bonds.  It's currently up 17bps, which is an improvement in Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slide down to 2.70%.                                                                                                                               
For more updates throughout the day, then follow me on Twitter @MikeBjork                              

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Daily Market Report 1/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today on the economic news is the Initial Jobless Claims, which dropped 17k (from last week's numbers), from 233k to 216k.  We're watching this data to determine if it's bottomed out, which could lead to our own economic slowdown (as most companies tend to layoff employees when business slows).  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on renewed worries over Global Slowdown, as more disappointing economic data came out from China; also, they're getting a bit restless over the Gov't Shutdown.  MBS is unchanged from yesterday, so Mortgage Rates remain unchanged.  Yesterday's close above the Floor of Support was important because it held the current trendline intact, which will allow Mortgage Rates to continue their improvement.  The floor is being tested, so we still need to be cautious!  Yields are currently hanging at 2.72%.                                                                                         

Follow me on Twitter @MikeBjork to keep up with the Market.                                                                               
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Daily Market Report 1/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing scheduled on the Economic Calendar today, but later this morning (11am PST) the FOMC Minutes will be released.  Historically speaking, the MBS don't do well on the days of FOMC Minutes been released; so, be forewarned!  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning and previous sentiments continue and new reports that progress is being made in the Trade Talks between the US and China, as they extend into a 3rd day.  Today, we have several Fed Members speaking today, which we've been hearing a bit of a dovish tone from previous thought.  MBS is currently down 2bps, which Mortgage rates will be unchanged from yesterday's close.  Yields are currently at 2.72%.                                                                                       
For more updates throughout the day, then please follow me @MikeBjork on Twitter.                                                                                 
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Daily Market Report 1/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today's Market News is mostly carryover sentiment from Friday's and Monday's news.  NFIB Small Business Index slid a bit, from 104.8 to 104.4, in December, as most of the Small Business owners were concerned about not finding the qualified rker.  Also, Job Openings shrank from  7.1 million to 6.9 million in November.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Samsung reported worse than expected warnings for Q4 Profits, and is pulling NASDAQ into the Red.  MBS is currently down 8bps and is pushing against a strong floor of support, which is important, because it represents the trend line; if broken, then can set up bonds for a big fall, thus higher interest rates ahead!  Yields seem to be set at 2.70%

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Daily Market Report 1/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today's Economic Calendar has only the ISM Services Index for the month of December.  It dropped from 60.7% to 57.6%.  On the Headline News, the Stock Market is trading in Positive Territory on news of the US/China Trade Talks amongst higher level Officials.  Also, the sentiment was carried over from Friday on comments by Fed Chief Powell (easing concerns with Investors that the Fed will be Flexible with it's Rate Hike and Balance Sheet Policies).  Currently, MBS are Unchanged from Friday's Close and Yields have risen to 2.67%.

For more Updates throughout the day, then just follow me on Twitter @MikeBjork

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Daily Market Report 1/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Provides a synopsis of the daily interest rates for mortgages and home loans, and Interest Rate Trends.  You'll find insight on what's driving the interest rates for that particular day and some thoughts about short- term and long- term trends with the Interest Rates.   This report is provided by Mike Bjork, whom is a Sr. Mortgage Planner, and provides financing for Home Buyers and Homeowners looking to refinance.  He understands the Markets and can assist his clients to prepare their mortgage  to save them money and prepare for their financial future.


Please Subscribe to MikesDailyMarketReport.com or my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, you can receive updates throughout the day by following Mike's tweets on his Twitter account @MikeBjork

Daily Market Report 1/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Provides a synopsis of the daily interest rates for mortgages and home loans, and Interest Rate Trends.  You'll find insight on what's driving the interest rates for that particular day and some thoughts about short- term and long- term trends with the Interest Rates.   This report is provided by Mike Bjork, whom is a Sr. Mortgage Planner, and provides financing for Home Buyers and Homeowners looking to refinance.  He understands the Markets and can assist his clients to prepare their mortgage  to save them money and prepare for their financial future.


Please Subscribe to MikesDailyMarketReport.com or my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, you can receive updates throughout the day by following Mike's tweets on his Twitter account @MikeBjork

Daily Market Report 1/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Provides a synopsis of the daily interest rates for mortgages and home loans, and Interest Rate Trends.  You'll find insight on what's driving the interest rates for that particular day and some thoughts about short- term and long- term trends with the Interest Rates.   This report is provided by Mike Bjork, whom is a Sr. Mortgage Planner, and provides financing for Home Buyers and Homeowners looking to refinance.  He understands the Markets and can assist his clients to prepare their mortgage  to save them money and prepare for their financial future.


Please Subscribe to MikesDailyMarketReport.com or my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, you can receive updates throughout the day by following Mike's tweets on his Twitter account @MikeBjork