Thursday, June 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/20/19 Initial Jobless Claims dropped from the previous week of 222k to 216k for this week's data.  This week's data is important becuase it is being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) Job Numbers for June, which will be released on July 5th.  The lower number may result in a strong Jobs Number.  More data indicates that Manufacturing is slowing, as the Philly Fed Index (manufacturing in the Philadelphia region) has dropped from 16.6 to 0.3 in June (bordering on contraction).  Leading Indicators don't show any improvement in May (0.0%).  Stocks are following it's rally from yesterday, after the Fed's Announcement.  They received what they were expecting, which was to remove the "patient" from the language and indicated a more accomodative stance, as it will be expected for them to cut rates at the July Meeting.  The Bank of Japan and Bank of England continued the sentiments of the ECB and Fed, as they too will be more accomodative.  MBS had rallied after Fed Announcement yesterday (up 33bps) and continues today (Up 23bps), so Mortgage Rates have Improved.  If you check out the chart on the video, then we broke above the ceiling of resistance.  This breakout allows us more room for Mortgage Rates to continue improving (until next ceiling of resistance).  On the other hand, Yields have fallen below it's strong floor of support, and has broken below 2.0% for the first time in 2.5 years.  It is currently sitting at 1.98%.

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