Daily Market Report 8/17/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales had a big miss in July, as it dropped 1.1%.  Part of the blame is being placed on Amazon moving up it's Prime Day to June,  Delta variant and Inflation.  However, Investors had a bigger drop in mind (part of the whisper numbers), as we'll touch in bonds/MBS' reaction to this news.  Industrial Production spiked to 0.9% in July; which is obviously good news!  However, Home Builders aren't so confident in August, as according to NAHB Home Builders Index, dropped from 80 to 75.  Lastly, Business Inventories picked up by 0.8% in June, as businesses prepare for workers to come back to work.  Stocks are nosediving today on the Retail Sales data.  China announced more restrictions on gathering private data on Tech companies, as they continue with sweeping reforms with various businesses.  MBS started up higher in the day, but dropped on the Retail Sales report.  We're currently Down 3bps; however, some east coast Lenders may have repriced for the worse (as they would have priced better with the early ratesheets).  Pricing for Mortgage Rates should look similar to pricing after Friday's and yesterday's closing (as we're more or less moving in a sideways pattern).  A comment about Retail Sales and MBS is that typically, this big of a disappointment would be good for MBS, but as I alluded to the whisper numbers having a bigger drop in mind, then it affected MBS in a negative manner today.  Meanwhile, Yields have slid below in between 2 new Technical levels; and sitting just  a bit under 1.25%.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/16/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Empire State Index dropped from 43.0 in July to 18.3 in August.  Even though 18.3 is still a good number, it's the amount of the drop is something that will concern investors, as we deal with the Delta variant.  Meanwhile, Stocks are all in Negative Territory today, as Investors see a pretty steep drop in China's factory output and retail sales, as they lockdown for further control of the Delta variant; and it's potential impact here in the US.  Also, Investors begin to look into the impact of the Taliban's recapture of Afghanistan, as US forces leave the country.  Based on the higher jobs data of late, there's now speculation that the Fed may begin talking about tapering at it's September meeting.  Investors will be watching the Jackson Hole event later this month for more indicators of the timeline of this discussion.  MBS started the morning off a bit higher (+13bps) and above it's 25 DMA; however, it has subsided a bit and is currently Up only 6bps (just below it's 25 DMA).  Many of the Lenders whom price early (based on east coast) may have priced a bit better today, but may be re-pricing for worse pricing (more in line with pricing from Friday's close).  Yields are currently a hair under 1.25%, as it too, tested a Technical floor earlier, only to pull back just above it.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/6/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their Jobs data today, which is the catalyst for the week!  The Average Earnings rose 0.4% July, while Average Workweek Hours increased to 34.8 hours.  The BIG news came in for Non-Farm Payrolls, which was 943k in July; and June's numbers were revised higher by 88k.  Meanwhile, the Unemployment number dropped by 0.5% to 5.4% in July.  On the lighter side, Wholesale Inventories rose by 1.1% in June.  I was wrong with my assessment of the Jobs data this week.  I initially thought it might take more time for those to return to work may take more time and see the spike in August's numbers, which we will probably still see more spikes ahead, as more states remove their extra benefits.  Overall, excellent economic report!  Stocks are Mixed, as NASDAQ is lone index in Red today.  MBS was handed the short-straw today, as it's currently Down 23bps and touching off it's 25 DMA.  Mortgage Rates rose a bit today, as a result.  Likewise, Yields touched off it's 25 DMA and is currently sitting at 1.29%.  This could be a trend to begin worsening, as Investors look to renewed taper talk.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/5/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims finally broke below 400k again, as it reported only 385k applied for first time benefits.  Continuing Claims broke below 3 million, as many of the extended benefits had expired; and Challenger Layoffs dropped by nearly 1.5 million (fewer announced job layoffs).  Stocks are up on the positive news from the economic data and positioning themselves for more possible news tomorrow with the BLS's Non-Farm Payrolls, which is expecting around 885k.  As a result, MBS is currently Down about 13bps, which Lenders priced in a little worse today with Mortgage Rates (from yesterday's close).  Meanwhile, Yields is sneaking it's head back above 1.20%; and currently sitting just  under 1.22%.  

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/4/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP released their Private Payrolls, which came in approximately half of it's estimates at 330k for the month of July.  HUGE Disappointment!!!!  This is the first of 3 jobs data this week for the month of July.  The biggie will be Friday, when we receive NonFarm Payrolls from Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is estimating approximately in the 800k range.  My personal feeling is we'll miss those estimates based on the higher initial jobless claims that we've witnessed last month (bringing our weekly average back over 400k).  Meanwhile, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 64.1 in July.  The news by ADP initially sank stocks, but they began to recover when the hotter ISM data rolled out.  But a wet blanket was placed over that sentiment after Fed Vice Chair Clarida commented today that he thinks that the Fed may start raising rates at end of 2023 (about a year sooner than most recent Dot Plot) and begin taper talk end of this year.  Stocks ended in Mixed Territory (NASDAQ remained lone index in Positive Territory).  Meanwhile, Investors continue to watch the spread of the Delta variant, which is being viewed more like a slow down in growth, but not quite extent of stopping the economy.  MBS faced similar volotility today, but appears to be closing around +3bps.  Mortgage Rates, after a few back-and-forth price changes, has essentially finished in the same range and remains Unchanged.  Like the other Markets, Yields saw a seesaw effect and is settling in around 1.17%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/3/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Factory Orders rose 1.5% in June.  Tomorrow, we'll see the 1st set of Jobs data for July, as the ADP will release their Private Payrolls data.  We saw the increase in Initial Jobless Claims go back above 400k this past month, so I'm going with the assumption that the Jobs numbers won't look too good on Friday.  This could pose as a problem for MBS, as bad news could be good news for stocks.  This would possibly lead the Fed to continue with the accomodations for a longer period and boost stocks further in it's current highs.  This same sentiment is occuring today with Stocks, as they're in light trading today, but still in Positive Territory.  Investors are concerned about the rise in COVID cases, but view the Delta variant, as more of a slowing of the recovery (vs closing the economy again); and watching China crackdown on it's Tech companies.  Meanwhile, MBS are off from their earlier highs, and currently Down 6bps.  Mortgage Rates are still in the same range as yesterday's pricing, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields tested the 1.15% range again today, only to be thwarted off.  They're currently just under 1.18%.  Both graphs are beginning to show a near-term reversal in their trends, so locking may be a good option at this time!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/2/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped below 60 for the first time this year, as constraints in the supply chain show it's effect in Manufacturing data.  It came in at 59.5 for July.  Construction Spending only rose 0.1% for June.  Stocks are Up today, as comments by Fed Member Brainard indicated that the Fed will most likely not begin tapering talk at it's Jackson Hole meeting later this month.  She indicated they will want to see some data after kids have returned to school and people begin to go back to work.  So, Investors are thinking that the earliest that the Fed will begin discussing tapering will be it's November meeting.  Investors are keeping an eye on the progress of the Infrastructure bill in Congress.  MBS is off it's earlier highs, but still Up 9bps.  As a result, many Lenders priced their Mortgage Rates better today (compared to Friday's close).  Yields dropped several points and also off it's earlier lows, but still sitting around 1.17% now.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.