Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Daily Market Report 8/4/21  The ADP released their Private Payrolls, which came in approximately half of it's estimates at 330k for the month of July.  HUGE Disappointment!!!!  This is the first of 3 jobs data this week for the month of July.  The biggie will be Friday, when we receive NonFarm Payrolls from Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is estimating approximately in the 800k range.  My personal feeling is we'll miss those estimates based on the higher initial jobless claims that we've witnessed last month (bringing our weekly average back over 400k).  Meanwhile, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 64.1 in July.  The news by ADP initially sank stocks, but they began to recover when the hotter ISM data rolled out.  But a wet blanket was placed over that sentiment after Fed Vice Chair Clarida commented today that he thinks that the Fed may start raising rates at end of 2023 (about a year sooner than most recent Dot Plot) and begin taper talk end of this year.  Stocks ended in Mixed Territory (NASDAQ remained lone index in Positive Territory).  Meanwhile, Investors continue to watch the spread of the Delta variant, which is being viewed more like a slow down in growth, but not quite extent of stopping the economy.  MBS faced similar volotility today, but appears to be closing around +3bps.  Mortgage Rates, after a few back-and-forth price changes, has essentially finished in the same range and remains Unchanged.  Like the other Markets, Yields saw a seesaw effect and is settling in around 1.17%.

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