Daily Market Report 8/31/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have 2 Home Price Indices (HPI) being released today.  The Case Shiller rose 1.8% MoM in June and up 19.1% YoY.  The FHFA HPI, which measures single family homes with conforming loan limits, rose 1.6% MoM in June and it rose 18.8% YoY.  Manufacturing slowed down in Chicago for the month of August, as the Chicago PMI repots that it dropped from 73.4 to 66.8.  Also, Consumer Confidence dropped from 125.1 to 113.8 in August.  Stocks are Mixed for the last day of the month, as DOW is lone index in Positive Territory, however, by very thin margin.  China started the Markets off in Negative Territory, as their Manufacturing and Services both dropped.  Then EU reported a bit higher inflation than was forecasted.  MBS started much lower, but off it's earlier lows.   It's currently Down 8bps from yesterday's close.  Most Lenders will price in a little worse today for Mortgage Rates.  Yields climbed back above it's Technical level and sitting at 1.31%.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/30/21

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  This week will be about Jobs data for the month of August.  The ADP will release their data on Wednesday; Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday; and Friday will be the BLS' Non Farm Payrolls.  However, today, we have Pending Home Sales for July, which dropped 1.8%.  Stocks continue to rise and set new records today, even though Hurrican Ida hit Louisiana.  It's estimated that $40 billion in damage; and New Orleans is without power for at least a few days, as all their power grids are unable to send out power to anybody.  MBS is currently Up 8bps today, after it closed Up 28bps on Friday.  Lenders will be about the same in pricing as Friday's close.  If they didn't reprice for the better on Friday, then they will price out better rates today.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen below the 1.30% Technical level; and is currently just below 1.29%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

 

Daily Market Report 8/27/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Personal Income rost by 1.1% in July; whereas, Consumer Spending rose only 0.3%.  The Fed's favorite inflation gauge was released today, which is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).  It rose 0.4% in July and it's YoY rose from 4.0% in June to 4.2% in July.  When you exclude food and energy, then you will have the Core PCE, or the Fed calls it Real Inflation (this is what the Fed watches more closely).  The Core PCE rose by 0.3% in July and it's YoY remained Unchanged at 3.6% (June's data was revised from 3.5% to 3.6%).  The Consumer Sentiment showed a HUGE dropoff in August!  The July data of 81.2 dropped to 70.3 for it's final number in August (it's mid-month was at 70.2).  However, the main catalyst for the week was this morning's speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which he addressed their desire to taper this year, however, was non-committal to when that may begin; as it's assumed they will want to review more data, especially with the uptick in Corona cases before they make any further moves.  Stocks were good with his speech; as were MBS, which are currently Up 23bps.  Mortgage Rates improved to almost the same level as Monday's pricing.  It's back up above both it's 100- and 50 DMA.  Yields are coming off yesterday's highs and currently sit below it's 50 DMA at 1.32%.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/26/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly to 353k, according to this week's report.  The 2nd look at Q2 GDP rose to 6.6% (slightly lower than forecasts); which, we'll receive final reading next month.  Stocks are Down today after several days of breaking new highs.  Today is the first day of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which we're hearing from a number of Hawkish speakers (Bullard, Kaplan and George), whom are stating they'd like to taper sooner than later.  Also, there are reports out of Afghanistan, which there were a few Bomb attacks in Kabul.  Reports are stating several fatalities and wounded.  Meanwhile, MBS went into negative territory after the ECB released their Minutes.  It was discussing their version of taper talk too.  MBS is currently Down 5bps.  Yesterday closed Down 14bps; so, Lenders have priced Mortgage Rates worse than yesterday's pricing; and have been pushed below it's 100 DMA.  Yields are testing it's next Technical level at 1.37% and currently sits at 1.35%.  The last time we hit this level was about 2 weeks ago when Yields dropped.  This level is important to hold because next level will be 1.42% (potential for Mortgage Rates).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/25/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Durable Goods Orders dropped 0.1% in July; however, if you exclude Transportation, then it rose 0.7%.  The drop in airplane orders is what is bringing the Durable Goods data down.  Meanwhile, Stocks continue to break new records, as they base their economic views on Q2 Corporate Earnings (vs. reported economic data) and comments by Fed Kaplan last week (softening in the tone of tapering).  Tomorrow is the beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which Investors are waiting to watch (especially on Friday when Fed Chair Powell speaks).  This will be the catalyst for the week!  MBS is currently Down 8bps after seesawing in pretty wide swings in both directions.  Based on today's pricing and yesterday's swoon (closed down 11bps), then Lenders will price Mortgage Rates a bit worse than yesterday.  Pricing should resemble close to last Friday's pricing.  There is a 5 year Treasury Auction which might impact the MBS Markets, so be a bit cautious!  Yields are spiking again; and is top it's Technical level!  It's currently residing at 1.33%.  Next layer up is 1.37%.  This could eventually put more pressure onto MBS.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/24/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  New Home Sales rose 1.0% in July, as June's data was revised higher (from 676k seasonally adjusted annual units to 701k); and July came in at 708k.  Meanwhile, Stocks continue in the Positive Territory after yesterday's announcement of the FDA Approval for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinations.  So, far about 90% of corporations of released their Q2 Earnings Reports, which most of them reported positive results.  Congress is still working to pass the Infrastructure and Spending bills; and Biden met with the G7 Leaders, whom are presumably trying to appeal to him to remain in Afghanistan past the August 31st date.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down about 9bps; however, yesterday, we had a late spike in MBS and closed at +20bps.  Lenders repriced for the better, as a result.  Today's Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's close, but better than yesterday's opening.  Also, Yields are still climbing their way upward toward another Technical ceiling, after passing it's 25 DMA.  It's currently just under 1.29%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/23/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Markit PMI released it's Manufacturing and Services data today.  The Manufacturing dropped from 63.4 in July to 61.2 in August; and Services dropped from 59.9 in July to 55.2 in August.  Both slowdowns being attributed to the rise of COVID cases.  Existing Home Sales got a bump with an increase in supply over the summer, as it went up from 5.87 million seasonally adjusted annual units in June to 5.99 million in July.  Stocks are Up today, as Investors shrug off the Markit data, which only feeds into the Bad News is Good News.  Based on the Notes from the last FOMC, there was concern that the Fed may taper sooner than expected; however, based on more recent comments (notably by Fed Member Kaplan), then there may be some sentiment to hold on talks to later this year (continued stimulus).  Some good news today, as the FDA announced it's Approval for Pfizer and Bio N Tech vaccines.  They're hoping this news will bring more unvaccinated to get vaccinated; and stocks for many services industry (such as movie theaters) are up.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning lower, but has since risen; and is currently Up about 8bps.  This isn't quite enough to positively affect prices, but if it continues with this trajectory, then it can.  So, Mortgage Rates will be Unchanged from Friday's close.  Yields are pushing up against it's 25 DMA and just under 1.26%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/20/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today; however, next week will carry some heayweights, such as Q2 GDP and PCE.  But more importantly, Investors will be looking ahead for the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday (the 26th) to Saturday.  They'll be watching for any clues on tapering talk; as Fed's Kaplan (today) seemed to soften his stance on tapering after seeing the rise in the Delta variant.  Stocks are rebounding a bit today, as Investors cherry-pick stocks that took a bit of a beating this week.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 6bps so far this morning.  Couple this with yesterday's late swoon, then Lenders will most likely have a little worse pricing today for Mortgage Rates.  Yields are testing it's Technical ceiling today and currently sits at 1.25%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/19/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Business Activity around the Philadelphia region slowed up a bit in August, as the Philly Fed Index indicated that it droppe from 21.9 in July to 19.4 in August.  The Initial Jobless Claims reached a new low since the beginning of the pandemic, as it reported 348k applying for first time benefits; meanwhile, continuing claims continue to decline.  Obviously, this is good news, as (hopefully) more people are going back to work.  Lastly, the Leading Economic Indicators report 0.9% jump in July.  Stocks are being impacted by the release of the FOMC Minutes that were released yesterday.  There really wasn't news, as many of the Fed Members have been voicing the probability that the Fed could look to pull back on stimulus sooner than later since the FOMC took place last month.  After the release of the Minutes, MBS improved a bit, as Investors looked for a Flight to Safety.  Based on yesterday's late gains and today's slight improvement, then Lenders will have better pricing than yesterday morning; and should be comparable to Monday's pricing.  MBS is currently Up 6bps.  Yields fell back between the 2 Technical levels and sit just a hair below 1.24%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/18/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped 7.0% in July, the numbers were 1.65 million seasonally adjusted units in June to 1.534 million in July.  However, Building Permits (future Housing Starts) rose 2.6%, which it's numbers were from 1.594 million seasonally ajusted in June to 1.635 million in July.  Meanwhile, the Markets are gearing up for the release of the last FOMC's Notes for any clues about discussion of tapering.  Investors will be looking ahead to next week's Jackson Hole's Symposium to see if the Fed drops any more clues.  We have already heard from several members whom support the discussion at Septembers meeting.  However, there are some whom think the Fed may want to see Septembers data before approaching the decision.  Hopefully, next week will be that indicator!  Stocks are Mixed, as NASDAQ is lone index in Positive Territory, which have been affected by today's economic data and comments by St Louis Fed Bullard yesterday, as he stated that the Fed should monitor the red hot housing market, as this woud lead to more discussion on tapering.  If you're not aware of what is tapering, then it's simply the reduction of the Fed's current purchase of $120 billion/month of MBS and Treasuries, which was used to create liquidity in the Markets when the Pandemic crisis started last year.  These purchases have helped keep Mortgage Rates down, but will rise once the Fed begins to taper, as there will be less demand.  MBS lost some ground yesterday afternoon and began the day much lower; however, did rebound some by mid-day.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, but with yesterday's losses and today's start, then Lenders will come in with worse pricing with their ratesheets.  When I say worse pricing for this scenario, it's about .125% in the interest rate; so, a 3.0% rate yesterday might be 3.125% today.  Just for some clarification.  Also, adding to the pressure to MBS is Yields rise to 1.28%, which rose past it's Technical ceiling and 25 DMA.  The next Technical ceiling is around 1.30%.  We'll see if this will hold for any future tests!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/17/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales had a big miss in July, as it dropped 1.1%.  Part of the blame is being placed on Amazon moving up it's Prime Day to June,  Delta variant and Inflation.  However, Investors had a bigger drop in mind (part of the whisper numbers), as we'll touch in bonds/MBS' reaction to this news.  Industrial Production spiked to 0.9% in July; which is obviously good news!  However, Home Builders aren't so confident in August, as according to NAHB Home Builders Index, dropped from 80 to 75.  Lastly, Business Inventories picked up by 0.8% in June, as businesses prepare for workers to come back to work.  Stocks are nosediving today on the Retail Sales data.  China announced more restrictions on gathering private data on Tech companies, as they continue with sweeping reforms with various businesses.  MBS started up higher in the day, but dropped on the Retail Sales report.  We're currently Down 3bps; however, some east coast Lenders may have repriced for the worse (as they would have priced better with the early ratesheets).  Pricing for Mortgage Rates should look similar to pricing after Friday's and yesterday's closing (as we're more or less moving in a sideways pattern).  A comment about Retail Sales and MBS is that typically, this big of a disappointment would be good for MBS, but as I alluded to the whisper numbers having a bigger drop in mind, then it affected MBS in a negative manner today.  Meanwhile, Yields have slid below in between 2 new Technical levels; and sitting just  a bit under 1.25%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/16/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Empire State Index dropped from 43.0 in July to 18.3 in August.  Even though 18.3 is still a good number, it's the amount of the drop is something that will concern investors, as we deal with the Delta variant.  Meanwhile, Stocks are all in Negative Territory today, as Investors see a pretty steep drop in China's factory output and retail sales, as they lockdown for further control of the Delta variant; and it's potential impact here in the US.  Also, Investors begin to look into the impact of the Taliban's recapture of Afghanistan, as US forces leave the country.  Based on the higher jobs data of late, there's now speculation that the Fed may begin talking about tapering at it's September meeting.  Investors will be watching the Jackson Hole event later this month for more indicators of the timeline of this discussion.  MBS started the morning off a bit higher (+13bps) and above it's 25 DMA; however, it has subsided a bit and is currently Up only 6bps (just below it's 25 DMA).  Many of the Lenders whom price early (based on east coast) may have priced a bit better today, but may be re-pricing for worse pricing (more in line with pricing from Friday's close).  Yields are currently a hair under 1.25%, as it too, tested a Technical floor earlier, only to pull back just above it.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/6/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their Jobs data today, which is the catalyst for the week!  The Average Earnings rose 0.4% July, while Average Workweek Hours increased to 34.8 hours.  The BIG news came in for Non-Farm Payrolls, which was 943k in July; and June's numbers were revised higher by 88k.  Meanwhile, the Unemployment number dropped by 0.5% to 5.4% in July.  On the lighter side, Wholesale Inventories rose by 1.1% in June.  I was wrong with my assessment of the Jobs data this week.  I initially thought it might take more time for those to return to work may take more time and see the spike in August's numbers, which we will probably still see more spikes ahead, as more states remove their extra benefits.  Overall, excellent economic report!  Stocks are Mixed, as NASDAQ is lone index in Red today.  MBS was handed the short-straw today, as it's currently Down 23bps and touching off it's 25 DMA.  Mortgage Rates rose a bit today, as a result.  Likewise, Yields touched off it's 25 DMA and is currently sitting at 1.29%.  This could be a trend to begin worsening, as Investors look to renewed taper talk.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/5/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims finally broke below 400k again, as it reported only 385k applied for first time benefits.  Continuing Claims broke below 3 million, as many of the extended benefits had expired; and Challenger Layoffs dropped by nearly 1.5 million (fewer announced job layoffs).  Stocks are up on the positive news from the economic data and positioning themselves for more possible news tomorrow with the BLS's Non-Farm Payrolls, which is expecting around 885k.  As a result, MBS is currently Down about 13bps, which Lenders priced in a little worse today with Mortgage Rates (from yesterday's close).  Meanwhile, Yields is sneaking it's head back above 1.20%; and currently sitting just  under 1.22%.  

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/4/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP released their Private Payrolls, which came in approximately half of it's estimates at 330k for the month of July.  HUGE Disappointment!!!!  This is the first of 3 jobs data this week for the month of July.  The biggie will be Friday, when we receive NonFarm Payrolls from Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is estimating approximately in the 800k range.  My personal feeling is we'll miss those estimates based on the higher initial jobless claims that we've witnessed last month (bringing our weekly average back over 400k).  Meanwhile, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 64.1 in July.  The news by ADP initially sank stocks, but they began to recover when the hotter ISM data rolled out.  But a wet blanket was placed over that sentiment after Fed Vice Chair Clarida commented today that he thinks that the Fed may start raising rates at end of 2023 (about a year sooner than most recent Dot Plot) and begin taper talk end of this year.  Stocks ended in Mixed Territory (NASDAQ remained lone index in Positive Territory).  Meanwhile, Investors continue to watch the spread of the Delta variant, which is being viewed more like a slow down in growth, but not quite extent of stopping the economy.  MBS faced similar volotility today, but appears to be closing around +3bps.  Mortgage Rates, after a few back-and-forth price changes, has essentially finished in the same range and remains Unchanged.  Like the other Markets, Yields saw a seesaw effect and is settling in around 1.17%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/3/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Factory Orders rose 1.5% in June.  Tomorrow, we'll see the 1st set of Jobs data for July, as the ADP will release their Private Payrolls data.  We saw the increase in Initial Jobless Claims go back above 400k this past month, so I'm going with the assumption that the Jobs numbers won't look too good on Friday.  This could pose as a problem for MBS, as bad news could be good news for stocks.  This would possibly lead the Fed to continue with the accomodations for a longer period and boost stocks further in it's current highs.  This same sentiment is occuring today with Stocks, as they're in light trading today, but still in Positive Territory.  Investors are concerned about the rise in COVID cases, but view the Delta variant, as more of a slowing of the recovery (vs closing the economy again); and watching China crackdown on it's Tech companies.  Meanwhile, MBS are off from their earlier highs, and currently Down 6bps.  Mortgage Rates are still in the same range as yesterday's pricing, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields tested the 1.15% range again today, only to be thwarted off.  They're currently just under 1.18%.  Both graphs are beginning to show a near-term reversal in their trends, so locking may be a good option at this time!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 8/2/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped below 60 for the first time this year, as constraints in the supply chain show it's effect in Manufacturing data.  It came in at 59.5 for July.  Construction Spending only rose 0.1% for June.  Stocks are Up today, as comments by Fed Member Brainard indicated that the Fed will most likely not begin tapering talk at it's Jackson Hole meeting later this month.  She indicated they will want to see some data after kids have returned to school and people begin to go back to work.  So, Investors are thinking that the earliest that the Fed will begin discussing tapering will be it's November meeting.  Investors are keeping an eye on the progress of the Infrastructure bill in Congress.  MBS is off it's earlier highs, but still Up 9bps.  As a result, many Lenders priced their Mortgage Rates better today (compared to Friday's close).  Yields dropped several points and also off it's earlier lows, but still sitting around 1.17% now.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.