Thursday, May 28, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/28/20 Initial Jobless Claims continued the lower trend when it was reported that 2.12 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, which is down from 2.45 million the week prior.  The 2nd look at the Q1 GDP worsened, going from -4.8% to -5.0%.  We'll get our final number for GDP next month.  Durable Goods Orders dropped 17.2% in April; however, when you remove Transportation from the equation, then it dropped 7.4%.  Interruptions in the Housing Market really showed in April, as NAR reported that Pending Home Sales dropped by 21.8%.  This is the biggest decline on record.  Stocks are Up on optimism of the economy reopening; and shrugging off the tensions between US and China.  This euphoria will probably be short-lived, as they realize it will take time for the economy to rebound and the tensions with China are real.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 3bps and just under the 50 DMA.  The 50 DMA is a floor of support, but MBS is running out of room between the 25 DMA and 50 DMA.  If we can get MBS to break above the 25 DMA, then we can see some improvement with Mortgage Rates; however, if it breaks below it's 50 DMA, then we'll see Mortgage Rates worsen.  So far, Mortgage Rates seem to be Unchanged from yesterday.  Yields are facing similar conundrum, as it's Up against it's 50 DMA at 0.70%.

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