Thursday, April 30, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/30/20 Just a forewarning, I may have rambled on a bit too much today, so I apologize beforehand.  However, we do have a lot of economic data to report today.  The Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 3.84 million, with revisions of approximately +15k in the previous report.  This will most likely bring us to approximately 17% Unemployment Rate, which we'll see those numbers next Friday when the BLS release their reports.  The Employment Cost Index rose by 0.8% in Q1.  Personal Income dropped by 2.0% in March, while Consumer Spending dropped by 7.5%.  These numbers will most likely worsen once we see April's data.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is consumer inflation data reported  a MoM drop of 0.3% in March and a YoY drop from 1.8% to 1.3%; however, when you remove food and energy from the equation, then we have the Core PCE (also called "Core Inflation"), which is the Fed's favorite measure of inflation; and it dropped by 0.1% (sorry, I erred in the video, by stating it rose by 0.1%) MoM, while it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  The headline number had a greater drop due the sudden decline in oil prices.  Manufacturing in the Chicago region contracted even further, as the Chicago PMI reported it at 35.4 on it's index for April.  Stocks are Down on the Job data.  The ECB announced that there were no changes to rates and they will continue to provide the necessary tools to help get the European economy back to running again.  MBS is Up 9bps, but yesterday it closed off it's earlier highs, which places pricing as Unchanged.  Yields haven't moved much either, as it's sitting at 0.59%.

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