Daily Market Report 2/28/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of data to report today, which we'll start with Personal Income for January.  It rose 0.6%, which was double it's forecast.  Consumer Spending rose only 0.2% in January, which is half of what was reported in December, and less than forecast.  Both the Personal Consumption Expenditure and it's Core PCE (the PCE without food and energy) rose only 0.1% in January.  However, the YoY for the PCE went from 1.5% to 1.7% in January; whereas, the Core PCE rose from 1.5% to 1.6%.  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation; and it's currently under it's Target rate of 2.0%.  Manufacturing improved in the Chicago region; however, it's still in Contraction mode; as the Chicago PMI rose from 42.9 to 49.0 in February.  Consumer Sentiment improved slightly from January to February, as it went from 100.9 to 101.0.  Even though, the data is very good today, Stocks are still under heavy pressure on worries over the coronavirus; as the DOW is on pace to lose over 4200 points this week.  This is greatly benefiting Mortgage Rates, as MBS is Up 61bps this morning.  Yields have free-fallen down to 1.15%.  We are at All Time Lows for Yields!

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Daily Market Report 2/27/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims rose 8k from last week's numbers to 219k this week.  The Q4 GDP remained Unchanged at 2.1%.  The final revision will be reported next month.  Durable Goods Orders dropped 0.2% in January (better than the -1.0% forecast); however, when you remove Transportation numbers from this data, then it rose 0.9% (better than 0.2% forecast).  Pending Home Sales rose 5.2% in January.  Stocks are severely in the Red this morning on more news on the coronavirus spreading outside of China.  MBS is off earlier highs (+30bps), but still Up 20bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday's close.  Yields are now at new All Time Lows, as they are currently sitting at 1.27%.

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Daily Market Report 2/26/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales rose to 764k in annualized units from December to January.  December's numbers were revised higher.  Stocks are rebounding from the last 2 days of sell offs due to concerns over the coronavirus making it's way globally.  MBS and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's close.  Yields are trying to work it's way back, but is up against it's new ceiling of resistance.  It's currently sitting around 1.34%.

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Daily Market Report 2/25/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index rose from 3.5% in November to 3.8% in December, as YoY numbers.  Also, FHFA HPI rose from 5.0% in November to 5.2% in December.  The reason for higher YoY numbers for FHFA HPI is because it represents homes with Conforming loans, which tend to be lower priced homes.  These homes are more affordable, so they're rising a bit more quickly (compared to higher priced homes).  Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence rose from 130.4 to 130.7 in February.  Overall, good numbers, as Home Prices are continuing to rise and Consumers feel very Confident.  Stocks started a rebound this morning, but quickly shifted into the Red again, as Economic Expansion concerns reign.  The impact of the coronavirus and signs that Yields are nearly at their All Time Low, reinforces those notions.  MBS is currently Up 6bps, and broke above it's ceiling of resistance yesterday.  Yields are sitting on a new floor of support at 1.325%.  I believe the All Time Low is at 1.31%, just underneath this floor of support.

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Daily Market Report 2/24/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today, so Stocks are going off of Geopolitical news today.  As such, the coronavirus is having a much stronger impact on the global economy, as Investors are panicking.  The DOW is Down between 800-900 points and the NASDAQ is Down over 300 so far this morning.  The Yield Curve has become more Inverted and creating more worries over a looming Recession.  MBS is Up 16bps and fighting to get above it's Ceiling of Resistance; and the Yields have fallen to 1.36% and sitting currently at a lower floor of support.

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Daily Market Report 2/21/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have reports from Markit PMI flash for the month of February with both sectors (Manufacturing and Services) reporting.  The Manufacturing dropped from 51.9 in January to 50.8 in February; while, Services dropped from 53.4 in January to 49.4 in February.  Any number above 50 is optimism/expansion and below 50 is negative/contraction.  Existing Home Sales slowed a bit in January, as it reported 5.46 million annualized units.  These numbers are a bit understated due to low inventory levels.  Stocks are looking at the Markit PMI flash data being reported and understanding the impact of the coronavirus on the global supply chain and economic expansion.  Stocks are down as a result of these concerns.  MBS is the benefactor, as it's Up 8bps this morning, but yesterday closed Up near it's highs, so we're able to move a bit higher on the chart and see a little bit better pricing for Mortgage Rates this morning (after nearly 2 weeks of stagnant movement).  Meanwhile, Yields are in abit of a freefall, as it dropped below 2 layers of floors of support, and currently sitting at 1.46%.  Next floor is at 1.43%.

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Daily Market Report 2/20/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rose by 4k from previous report to 210k, which is still a very strong number.  This week's report carries more weight because it is the "sample" week, which is used toward the calculation for the Bureau of Labors Jobs numbers due March 6th.  The manufacturing in the Philadelphia region was on fire in February, as the Philly Fed Index rose to 36.7, which is a 2 year high.  Also, the Economic Leading Indicators rose by 0.8% in February.  Currently, Stocks have slid into the Red this morning, as more concerns over the coronavirus.  Investors are starting to realize they may have underestimated it's impact globally.  There was a merger announced between Morgan Stanley and E Trade today.  MBS is enjoying a bit of flight to safety, as it is Up 8bps.  It's not quite there for any improvements (but very close).  So, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are falling, which the 10 year is currently at 1.52%.  After being propped up with Treasury purchases by the Fed, now were starting to see some Inverted Yield Curves.  We'll watch to see if this continues.

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Daily Market Report 2/19/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts, which had a 14 year high in December was revised higher from 1.608 million to 1.626 million; so, it stands to reason there will be a bit of a pull back in January, which it did decline to 1.567 million. It's still better than it's forecast of 1.440 million.  Media is harping on the drop of 3.6%, but if you remove the positive revisions, then it's 2.5% drop; also, they're not informing the public that December's number was a 14 year high.  Building Permits increased from 1.420 million in December to 1.551 million.  This is a 13 year high in Building Permits.  This data is important because it's future Housing Starts.  The Producer Price Index and it's Core PPI (PPI excluding food and energy) spiked up 0.5% in January.  The YoY for the PPI rose from 1.3% to 2.1% in January; whereas, it's Core PPI rose from 1.1% to 1.7% in January.  This is a pretty steep spike, so we'll definitely keep our eyes on it.  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released.  Most of this info will be outdated, as the Fed Chair testified before Congress last week.  However, Investors may look for any insight to possible Rate Cuts for this summer.  Stocks are Up this morning on news that China is implementing some measures to help the Small Businesses that are affected by the coronavirus after Apple and Walmart warned about future profits being affected by it yesterday.  We have several Fed Members speaking today.  MBS is currently Down 2bps.  We haven't been having much movement in either direction to move pricing on Mortgage Rates in either direction, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields have climbed a little bit to just under 1.57%.

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Daily Market Report 2/18/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Empire State Index (Manufacturing in the NY region) indicated some strength in February after jumping from 4.8 in January to 12.9.  NAHB Home Builders Index, which indicates the confidence level with Home Builders, dropped one point to 74 in February.  However, Stocks are in the Red on reports by Apple and Walmart that they won't meet 2nd Quarter expectations for earnings, as the coronavirus continues to hurt production in China.  Our thoughts and prayers are out to those whom have passed and those whom have been infected; and hope the virus is eradicated quickly.  Investments are flowing toward "safe havens" like the MBS, which is Up 8bps.  It's not quite enough to see improvement, but may see it tomorrow.  Currently, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields have stumbled down to 1.54% now.

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Daily Market Report 2/14/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales (both headline and excluding Autos) rose 0.3% in January.  Import Price Index remained Unchanged in January.  However, Industrial Production dropped 0.3% in January and Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.1% to 76.8%.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 100.9 in February.  Last, but not least, Business Inventories rose 0.1% in December.  Stocks are lightly trading and stepping back and forth in Positive and Negative Territory, as Investors are having heightened concerns about the data being received out of China that it may be well under-reported.  MBS is Up 5bps this morning, as Mortgage Rates have basically remained the same all week (Unchanged).  Yields have fallen down to 1.58%.

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Daily Market Report 2/13/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Report rose by 2k to 205k.  Consumer Price Index rose by 0.1% in January; however, it's YoY rose from 2.3% to 2.5%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% in January; however, it's YoY remained Unchanged at 2.3%.  Stocks are down this morning, as Investors turn to the ever increasing numbers of diagnosed patients and death tolls as a result from the coronavirus.  MBS is Up 5bps this morning and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Because we haven't had really any large price swings this week, the Mortgage Rates have pretty much remained intact this week.  Yields have climbed a little higher to 1.62%.

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Daily Market Report 2/12/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Up again today, as DOW and S&P reach new highs.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be testifying before the Senate today.  His talking points from yesterday's testimony will remain the same, however, the Senate may have other questions for him.  Also, later today, there is a 10yr Treasury Auction, which can affect the Markets.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, however, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are Up to 1.63% (sorry, I mistakenly stated 1.66% in the video).

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Daily Market Report 2/11/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index rose from 102.4 in December to 104.3 in January.  This index is a guage to the confidence for Small Business owners.  The JOLTS Job Openings dropped from 6.8 million in November to 6.4 million in December.  Stocks are Up this morning, as Jerome talks before Congress (Day 1 of 2).  Other Fed Members will be out speaking today, as well.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so there's No change to Mortgage Rates.  Yields climbed up to 1.58%.

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Daily Market Report 2/10/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There is no economic data to report today, and this week will be relatively quiet.  Stocks started in the red this morning, but since has moved into Positive Territory.  Investors are checking on China, as businesses begin to re-open after the extended holiday due to the coronavirus.  Also, the Q4 Corporate Earnings Reports will soon come to a close this week.  MBS is fighting to stay above it's previous ceiling, and hopefully, turning it into a floor of support.  It's Unchanged from Friday's close, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as well.  Hopefully, it's strong enough to stay above this line, which can lead to further improvement for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have fallen down to just under 1.56% now.

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Daily Market Report 2/7/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have the Jobs data being reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The Non Farm Payrolls came in much hotter than expectations (165k) in January at 225k new jobs.  The previous 2 months were revised higher by another 7k.  The Unemployment Rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6% in January due to more people entering the workforce, as the Labor Participation Rate increased.  Also, employees are making more money, as Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.3% in January, or 3.1% YoY.  Meanwhile, Wholesale Inventories declined by 0.2% in January.  Stocks are down on the good news (regarding the Jobs data).  They are in a Over-Bought position and were forecasting that the Fed would cut rates again in June.  Because the Jobs data was so hot, then now they're thinking the Fed won't cut rates; so good news is bad news!  This is helping Mortgage Rates, as they improved today on the MBS rising 14bps so far this morning.  MBS is testing it's ceiling, but is being turned back.  We'll see if it can muster enough to break above it.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen down to 1.59%.

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Daily Market Report 2/6/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims came in under the forecast, at 202k, which is very good news, as Employers are holding onto their employees.  Tomorrow will be the big BLS Jobs data, so stay tuned!  Productivity jumped up 1.4%, as did Labor Costs for Q4.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Jobless Claims, but also reports on US/China implementing the agreement from Phase One by reducing Tariffs by half on February 14th.  MBS is currently Unchanged, as is Mortgage Rates.  It seems like MBS is benefiting from Investors balancing of their Portfolios, as they have been in line lately; typically, they move inverse of one another.  Yields are currently at 1.65%.  Both MBS and Yields are indicating undecided movements on the Japanese Candlesticks.  Be cautious, as it could sway either way, but tomorrow's Jobs data could be a catalyst for any movement.

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Daily Market Report 2/5/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Payroll came in very hot, as it reported there were 291k new private jobs in January.  This is the first of 3 jobs reports that we'll see this week.  The biggie, will be on Friday, with the BLS Jobs data.  The next 2 reports cover the Services Industry, which show higher Optimism in January.  The Markit Services PMI rose from 52.8 to 53.4; and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose from 54.9% to 55.5%. Stocks are Up on the data being reported today, especially on the Jobs numbers, and the upbeat Corporate Earnings Reports that have been trickling in.  There was some possible good news being reported that some research groups in China and UK may have found some vaccinations that may be effective against the coronavirus.  MBS started much lower, and even touching it's floor of support, but is now Down 3bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields have climbed a bit further and currently around 1.64%.

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Daily Market Report 2/4/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders rose 1.8% in December, as this report is the only one out today.  We'll start to see Jobs data beginning tomorrow thru rest of week.  Stocks are Up again today, as investors appear to be shrugging off coronavirus news, and looking toward the politics.  The mess in the Iowa Caucus and probable conclusion to the Impeachment hearings seem to be a positive for Trump, and Investors seem to be liking it.  MBS is Down 12bps, so Mortgage Rates have worsened a bit today.  We may be heading for a Trend Reversal, so you may want to consider locking if you have any refinance transactions or purchase transactions due to close soon.  Yields have climbed their way back upwards to near 1.60%.

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Daily Market Report 2/3/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped a little, from 52.4 to 51.9 in January.  While ISM Manufacturing jumped up from 47.8% to 50.9% -going from Contraction to Expansion.  Construction Spending dropped by 0.2% in December.  Stocks are rebounding after Friday's big selloff (DOW closed approximately down 600 points), which the DOW is just over 300 this morning.  The main news is, of course (still) the coronavirus, as just over 360 people have been reported to have died from it, and around 17k have been affected by it.  We're still receiving Q4 Earnings Reports, but I don't have any notables to mention.  MBS is currently Down 11bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are rebounding a bit (like stocks) are have climbed up to 1.57% after touching it's floor of support at the 1.509% level.

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