Thursday, August 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/22/19 The Weekly Jobless Claims was reduced by 12k from last week's report to 209k.  This week's report is important because it is being used by the BLS for their Jobs Data to be reported the first Friday of Sept, which this report is called the "Sample Week".  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped into Contraction Territory in August, as it dropped from 50.4 to 49.9.  Also, the Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 to 50.9, which will be teetering on possible Contraction.  On the good news, the Leading Economic Indicators improved from -0.1% in June to +0.5% in July.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory this morning (DOW being lone index in Positive Territory), as all eyes will be toward the Jackson Hole Conference.  This Conference kicks off today, as many Fed Governors will be speaking.  Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will speak, so he will have everybody's attention.  The 10- and 2- year Treasury Inverted again (for 2nd time) yesterday, which spooked the Markets again.  This Inversion is one of the better signals/indicators of looming recession.  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates again keep moving in side-ways patterns and remain Unchanged.  Yields are pushing it's Ceiling of Resistance, which seems to be holding, but it currently sits at 1.59%.  Be cautious ahead of tomorrow's Jackson Hole Conference, as Fed Chair Powell's comments can really sway the Markets to one direction or the other.  It could define the tone until the next meeting.

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