Daily Market Report 8/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Personal Income rose 0.1% in July, while Consumer Spending rose 0.6%.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% in July; whereas, it's YoY essentially remained the same, as the June's number was revised from 1.4% to 1.3%, then rose to 1.4% YoY in July (hope you were able to follow that;).  When you remove the food and energy, then you have the Core Inflation (this is the Fed's favorite measure for inflation).  It also rose 0.2% in July; whereas, it's YoY remained unchanged at 1.6%.  The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2.0%, so we're currently below it's target rate, which may induce them for more rate cuts.  Chicago PMI, which is an index that measures the manufacturing within the Chicago region, rose from 44.4 to 50.4.  Anything under 50 is considered contraction and above it, is expansion.  Consumer Sentiment took a bit of a noosedive in August.  It's initial August reading was 92.1, but it dropped further and finalized at 89.9.  This is a far drop from July's final at 98.4.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as the storms between the US and China seem to have subsided from the earlier storm that brewed earlier in the month.  MBS are currently Up 6bps and up against the Ceiling of Resistance; meanwhile, the 25 DMA is it's new Floor of Support and shrinking it's current level of movement between floor and support.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's close.  The Yields are slightly up to 1.51%.

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Daily Market Report 8/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit from 211k people applying for Unemployment the previous week to 215k last week.  Q2 GDP had it's 2nd revision today, which went from 2.1% annualized to 2.0%.  It's forecasts called for 1.9%,  Also, Pending Home Sales dropped 2.5% from June to July.  Stocks are in a Good Mood today, as they like comments out of China that they stated they will no immediately retaliate to the US' counter with additional tariffs last Friday, and they intend to meet face-to-face next month to continue their trade negotiations.  MBS are currently down 11bps.  They're sitting where we started yesterday, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Something to watch is the rise of the 25 DMA, which may push it higher; but, there's always a chance for it to slip below it (at least temporarily).  So be cautious, if your floating your interest rate, as it may affect short term positions.  Yields have risen to 1.51%, as money flows from Treasuries to Equities today.

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Daily Market Report 8/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report from the Economic Calendar today.  The Market's Sentiment seems to be shifted a bit more sour today, as it begain late yesterday.  Stocks closed in Negative Territory yesterday (after starting the day in Positive Territory).  Today, it is a bit mixed, as Investors continue to worry about the ever deepening Yield Curve Inversion, the long, drawn out trade negotiations between US and China, and a realistic "Hard" Brexit coming this fall, which they believe will deeply impact both European and UK's economy negatively.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are currently sitting below it's Floor of Support at 1.47%.

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Daily Market Report 8/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Case Shiller Home Price Index, which gauges home prices in the 20 largest US Cities, dropped from 2.4% YoY in May to 2.1% YoY in June.  Consumer Confidence Index had a slight drop from 135.8 in July to 135.1 in August.  Headline news are more of the same, or continuation of yesterday's sentiment.  Nothing new has yet developed.  Stocks are in Positive Territory.  MBS is currently Up 17bps.  But MBS had a late day change to the worse and closed Down 16bps, but most lenders didn't price in any price changes, so today's pricing is essentially the same as yesterday's (Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged).  Yields are slipping a little after yesterday's push upwards, and are currently sitting slightly below 1.51%.

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Daily Market Report 8/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders rose 2.1% in July, up from 1.8% in June.  However, when you exclude the Autos, then it dropped 0.4% in July.  Stocks are Up this morning on news that President Trump stated that China contacted him twice over the weekend to return back to negotiations.  This has flipped the Investors sentiment from Friday's tit-for-tat tariff talk between US and China.  A Business Survey in Germany reported that Business Confidence is at it's lowest point since 2009, and is greatly concerned that it's quickly approaching recessionary levels.  MBS is Up 8bps, which isn't enough for any price improvement since Friday's close, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields started the morning sitting on it's Floor of Support (about the 1.48% level) and is now up to 1.51%.

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Daily Market Report 8/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We only have 1 economic piece to report, which is New Home Sales for the Month of July.  In June, we had 728k annualized units sold; however, in July, it dropped to 635k.  Very disappointing!  That's nearly a 100k drop in 1 month.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory so far this morning, but off from earlier lows.  The morning started off with China announcing new Tariffs of 5% and 10% of $75 Billion US Imports starting on Sept. 1st and December 15th in retailiation to the US announcement a few months ago.  Fed Chair Powell spoke today in Jackson Hole, WY, which he indicated that there will be another Rate Cut in Sept. 17-18 meeting, as he also indicated a weakening economy.  MBS is Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates are better today and are priced where we were around Tuesday's pricing.  Yields had closed above it's Ceiling of Resistance yesterday, but it falling today (below it) and is currently sitting around 1.56%.

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Daily Market Report 8/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims was reduced by 12k from last week's report to 209k.  This week's report is important because it is being used by the BLS for their Jobs Data to be reported the first Friday of Sept, which this report is called the "Sample Week".  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped into Contraction Territory in August, as it dropped from 50.4 to 49.9.  Also, the Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 to 50.9, which will be teetering on possible Contraction.  On the good news, the Leading Economic Indicators improved from -0.1% in June to +0.5% in July.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory this morning (DOW being lone index in Positive Territory), as all eyes will be toward the Jackson Hole Conference.  This Conference kicks off today, as many Fed Governors will be speaking.  Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will speak, so he will have everybody's attention.  The 10- and 2- year Treasury Inverted again (for 2nd time) yesterday, which spooked the Markets again.  This Inversion is one of the better signals/indicators of looming recession.  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates again keep moving in side-ways patterns and remain Unchanged.  Yields are pushing it's Ceiling of Resistance, which seems to be holding, but it currently sits at 1.59%.  Be cautious ahead of tomorrow's Jackson Hole Conference, as Fed Chair Powell's comments can really sway the Markets to one direction or the other.  It could define the tone until the next meeting.

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Daily Market Report 8/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales jumped up from 5.29 million annualized units in June to 5.42 million in July.  The FOMC Minutes will be released at 11am PST.  Investors will be searching for clues behind the Fed's thoughts on past Rate Cut and insight into future Rate Cuts.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the Earnings Reports wind down.  Target and Lowes, coupled with Home Depot (yesterday), show that Retail Sales are still going strong.  The Italian Prime Minister Conte resigned, so volatility in Yields may calm a bit.  MBS is currently Down 3bps, which is not enough to alter Mortgage Rates Pricing, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently 1.57%, and still trying to push ahead of it's Ceiling of Resistance, which has been proving to be strong.

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Daily Market Report 8/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report today (again), which was mentioned yesterday that this will be relatively light in terms of data being reported.  The Markets are taking their cue from the remaining Earnings Reports, as big bellweather companies, like HomeDepot, are reporting today.  Stocks are Mixed this morning, as a result.  Huawei was granted another 90 day reprieve from the US Commerce Dept, so US businesses can still do business with them without requesting permission to do so.  President Trump continues his criticism of the Fed with their rate policy and suggested they should cut about 1% more.  There are a few Fed speakers out today speaking, which can also pique the Investors ears.  Jackson Hole is just around the corner, as a few Central Bankers will gather there this Thursday and Friday.  MBS is Up 16bps this morning, as Mortgage Rates look to improve after yesterday's drop (closed down 22bps).  Yields are sliding a bit and are down to 1.56%, trying to stay above the 2nd level of Support.

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Daily Market Report 8/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's No Economic Data to report today, and it will be a light week this week, as well.  The Market is taking it's cue today on Geo-Political News, as President Trump and his Staff downplay talks of recession.  They stated that they expect the economy to continue to be strong, and raised the optimism of a trade agreement with China, possible Tax Cuts, Rate Cuts, as other large nations are announcing stimulus packages.  Stocks are Up on this optimism.  MBS is currently down 14bps, so Mortgage Rates are down a little bit today.  Yields are fighting their way back above it's 2 levels of resistance, and currently sitting at 1.60%.

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Daily Market Report 8/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.241 million in June to 1.191 million in July.  Even though this headline number shows a drop, the good news is if you dig deeper, then you'll understand that the drop was due to drop with Multi-Family.  There was actually an increase in Single Family, which is up approximately 2% YoY.  Building Permits, our Future Housing Starts, rose from 1.232 million in June to 1.336 million in July.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 98.4 in July to 92.1 August.  Stocks are Up today, as the data from the Economic Calendar is spurring the positive movement today, as this week's volatility from the China aftermath and Inverted Yields are placed on the back-burner for now.  MBS is down 25bps from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates have worsened, but they're still Up from Wednesday's pricing.  Yields inched Up to 1.57% this morning.

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Daily Market Report 8/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have a lot of data on the Economic Calendar being released.  Initial Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 220k this week.  Retail Sales rose 0.7% in July; and when you exclude Autos, then it rose 1.0%.  Productivity rose 2.3% for Q2.  Unit Labor Costs rose 2.4% for Q2.  Empire State Index rose from 4.3 in July to 4.8 in August.  Philly Fed Index dropped from 21.8 to 16.8.  Industrial Production dropped 0.2% in July.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.8% to 77.5% in July.  Business Inventories remained Unchanged in June.  NAHB Home Builders Index rose from 65 to 66 in August.  For more clarification on this data, then please check out the video.  Stocks started the day off very volatile due to comments by China on Tariffs and Negotiations.  We saw swings to the low when they commented about Tariffs being placed in September to change of tone later in the day when they stated they'd like to accomplish a mutual beneficial agreement between the 2 nations.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as Walmart reported bullish earnings, along with strong Retail Sales.  MBS is Up 31bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday, and are about to pressure it's overhead ceiling of resistance.  Yields have continued to slide, which are currently sitting below it's 2nd floor of support.  It's currently at 1.534%  Next floor of support is 1.325%, which is the Yields All-Time Low.

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Daily Market Report 8/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today.  Stocks are being driven downward today (DOW down over 600 so far) on worries of the final Yield Curve Inversion.  The 2 year Yield finally inverted with the 10 year Yield.  This is important because it's been a very good indicator or signal that either we're in a recession or will be heading into a recession.  Again, this is not what causes a recession, but just an indicator or signal (so, not to be mistaken of what puts us into a recession).  This, coupled with more negative data from around the world, is spooking the Markets.  As a result, the MBS is Up 31bps, so we have improvement with our Mortgage Rate pricing; however, the Market did deteriorate a bit more yesterday afternoon, and there was a re-price for worse pricing.  Yields are testing it's first floor of support, and sits at 1.586% currently.

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Daily Market Report 8/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidence for Small Businesses, rose from 103.3 in June to 104.7 in July.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in July, and 1.6% to 1.8% YoY.  However, if you remove the food and energy components (which are volatile), then you have the Core CPI.  The Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July and 2.1% to 2.2% YoY.  Stocks have reversed course and trading in Positive Territory (DOW is up over 400, thus far) on news that the US will either scrap altogether or just delay certain components of the $300 Billion Chinese Goods due to go into effect Sept. 1.  Also, the Trade Reps plan to be meeting again within the next 2 weeks.  Investors are closely watching the happenings in Hong Kong, as China is becoming more aggressive with their crackdown on Protestors.  MBS is currently down 9bps, however, that's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates.  Yields have climbed to 1.68%.  Investors are watching the last possible inversion between the 2yr and 10yr, as they are now about 3bps from being inverted.

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Daily Market Report 8/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are mostly following the news on US/China trade negotiations and Hong Kong.  The Yuan is getting weaker against the US Dollar, which the US has accused China of being a currency manipulator.  Also, tensions in Hong Kong continue to rise, as Police step up their tactics in a more aggressive manner, which is leading to bloodshed; as a result, the Hong Kong airport cancelled all flights because thousands of protestors are occupying the terminals.  MBS is currently Up 9bps and floating in mid-range of it's floor and ceiling.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's Close.  Yields have fallen to 1.66% with it's next floor of support at 1.595%, which is the current Low point it reached about a week ago.

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Daily Market Report 8/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in July; however, it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  The Core PPI dropped 0.1% in July, and it's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.1%.  The Producer Price Index provides us insight to possible inflation to the Consumer, as it's inflationary data from the Wholesale sector.  This doesn't always get passed onto the Consumer, which is why it doesn't receive alot of attention.  Stocks are in the Red again this morning, as it faced a volatile week (big swings up and down).  Investors are still watching the US and China standoff in Trade negotiations, as China has cut purchases of Agriculture from the US; and US has been upholding US Businesses from conducting business with Huawei.  Italy wants to dissolve the parliament for new elections, so Investors are a bit jittery for any Italian Bond holdings.  MBS is currently down between 5-8bps.  Mortgage Rates had an intra-day price change yesterday afternoon and received better pricing; so, pricing this morning is better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as yesterday's close.  Yields are now sitting around 1.71%.

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Daily Market Report 8/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 217k the prior week to 209k last week.  The Job Market still shows some strength.  Wholesale Inventories had 0.0% growth from May to June.  Stocks rebounded late yesterday and continued this trend this morning.  China repositioned their currency just above 7, which is a little stronger than reports yesterday at just below 7.  A poor Auction result for the 10 year Treasury Auction led to a drastic pullback to both Yields and MBS yesterday.  MBS is currently down about 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain unnchanged from yesterday's close; however, we did have a price change for the worse yesterday; so, we're a little higher than yesterday morning.  Yields have risen to 1.77%.

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Daily Market Report 8/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report from the calendar today.  Global Yields are dropping like hotcakes!  Germany reports terrible economic data and reach historic lows with their Yields (-0.59%).  Central Banks from New Zealand, India and Thailand cut rates to keep up with the other Central Banks.  These moves are highlighted by China's response to Tariffs by manipulating their currency by devaluing it below 7.  Stocks are in a  freefall again today, as a result.  MBS is currently up 20bps, so Mortgage Rates continue the trend of Improvement.  Yields have dramatically dropped to 1.63% with no end in site.

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Daily Market Report 8/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we get the Big Jobs Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The Non-Farm Payroll reported 164k new jobs in July; however, there was a revision of -41k to the last 2 months of reports.  Also, the Unemployment Rate remained the same (3.7%) due to an increase in people entering the Labor Market.  Average Hourly Earnings rose by .3% in July.  Consumer Sentiment, also, remained unchanged at 98.4.  Factory Orders rebounded in June, as they rose 0.6% (vs. contracted by 1.3% in May).  Stocks are well in the Red, following yesterday's late reaction to President Trump's tweet on the 10% Tariffs on the remaining $300 Billion of Chinese Goods, which will go into effect on September 1st.  This has spooked Investors, as the both nations just returned back to the table this week; and are concerned this will heighten tensions between the nations.  On the other hand, it is reported that President Trump will announce a new deal that the  US will be exporting more beef to the EU.  MBS are near flat, +2 bps, as they had a very nice rally yesterday.  Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday morning and about the same as yesterday's close; so, depending upon the Lender, whether they added the afternoon's price improvement to yesterday or today, is what will determine if Mortgage Rates improved or not from yesterday's close.  Yields fell all the way down to 1.88%.

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Daily Market Report 8/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215k last week -still a very low number.  Remember, we have the BLS' Jobs data tomorrow!  ISM Manufacturing Index dipped from 51.7% to 51.2% in July.  Anything above 50% is considered in expansion territory on this index.  Construction Spending continued to slump, as it dropped 1.3% in June.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as the Fed had to backtrack on earlier comments regarding outlook for future rate decisions as this is a "mid-cycle adjustment"; whereas Investors took this comment as the Fed is One and Done with the Rate Cut.  It wasn't a very good comment to make, so he back tracked and basically expressed that any rate decision going forward will be data driven.  So, Investors may take this as any good news moving forward will mean bad news, as in the Fed won't cut rates any further due to good economic data.  The stocks closed above their lows, but still very low.  MBS closed yesterday off their highs, but are rebounding today, as they're Up 22bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved.  Yields are down to 1.96% and broke below it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci levels, further helping MBS and improvement to Mortgage Rates.

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