Daily Market Report 4/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% again in Q1. Case Shiller HPI dropped from 4.2% YoY to 4.0% YoY in February in appreciation.  Manufacturing dropped in the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI dropped from 58.7 in March to 52.6 in April.  Consumer Confidence rose from 124.2 to 129.2 in April.  Pending Home Sales rebounded in April, Up 3.8%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as more Corporate Earnings Reports are released.  A big one, Google, missed their Revenues for Q1, which is weighing on the Markets today.  FOMC begins their 2 day meetings today.  No rate hike is expected.  Reports on Factory Activity in China dropped; however, the index still show it in expanding territory.  The EU's GDP rebounded in Q1, as it jumped up from 0.9% to 1.5%.  MBS is Up 3bps, so not enough movement for Mortgage Rates to change, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are still in the 2.52% range today.

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Daily Market Report 4/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Personal Income rose only 0.1% for March, as expectations were +0.4%.  Howevery, Consumer Spending rose 0.9% in March, based on an 0.8% jump.  The Fed's favorite gauge for inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditure, or PCE) was released today.  PCE rose 0.2% in March, as it's YoY rose from 1.3% to 1.5%.  The Fed watches the Core PCE (also called Core Inflation), which had no movement (0.0%) for March, so it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%.  When you remove food and energy, then you have the core data, as those variables are uncontrolled and can vary quite abit.  It's below the Fed's target rate of 2.0% for Inflation.  Stocks are trending a little higher, as they are in record high territory and approaching the Fed's 2 day meeting, starting tomorrow.  More Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports will kick off the week, as only 46% have reported thus far.  US and China trade talks resume; however, the North American Trade Agreement appear to be in jeopardy, as Congress threatens to block it.  MBS is down 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have increased to 2.53% again, adding pressure to MBS.

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Daily Market Report 4/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We got a glimpse of Q1 GDP today, which surprised the Markets.  After a lower revised 4th Qtr GDP of 2.2%, forecasts called for 2.3% in Q1, but it came in much HIGHER at 3.2%.  Also, Consumer Sentiment showed some improvement, rising from 96.9 in March to 97.2in April.  However, Stocks are trending into the Negative Trade this morning, as more Corporate Earnings and Forecasts are reported.  This is what is driving the Market currently.  As a result, MBS is Up 13bps, and Mortgage Rates Improved today.  Yields have slid down to 2.50% now.

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Daily Market Report 4/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims had a big spike last week, as 230k people applied for Unemployment Benefits.  This is up from 193k the previous week.  This will be something we watch to determine, if we've hit the bottom and start rising, or this may be an anomaly.  Durable Goods rebounded nicely in March, rising 2.7% (without Transportation, it rose 0.4%).  This is a nice rebound after declining 1.1% in February.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory this morning, as they take their cue from Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports and Business Forecasts.  MBS is down 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's Rates.  Yields are still at 2.53%.

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Daily Market Report 4/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no data to report today on the Economic Calendar, so we take our queu from Geo-Political events (China) and Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as many of the indices have reached their Peak, and the rest are very close to reaching it.  China and US will reconvene their meetings next week (the 30th).  Also, there are concerns that China may pull back on their current Stimulus, as they seem to be pleased with the Q1 results.  MBS is UP 11bps, so coupled with yesterday's positive trades, Mortgage Rates have Improved today.  Yields have slid to 2.53%.

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Daily Market Report 4/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales jumped Up from 667k February to 692k in March.  We've seen a lot of declines in the Housing Market, so this Positive News is very welcomed.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as Investors go thru Corporate Earnings and Forecasts, especially from some of the larger corporations in order to asses the state of the economy.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields inched their way down to 2.57%.

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Daily Market Report 4/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There were a few reports released on Friday, even though the Markets were closed, so we'll provide that information:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.142 million in February to 1.139 million (annualized units) in March.  Also, Building Permits dropped from 1.291 million in February to 1.269 million in March.  Both had forecasts of increasing annualized units.  Today, we had Existing Home Sales released, which they too dropped from 5.51 million annualized units in February to 5.21 million in March.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as Oil prices rise on news that the US will not renew waivers to countries importing oil from Iran.  Some of these countries include China and Turkey.  Also, reports out of China say that the Chinese Government are pleased with the results thus far on the results from the current Stimulus, and will focus now on Infrastructure, instead of more Stimulus, to the dismay of Investors.  MBS are down 9bps this morning, but not enoough to make any changes in Mortgage Rates.  Yields have climbed back up to 2.58%.

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Daily Market Report 4/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims continue to drop, as they dropped from 197k to 192k last week.  Retail Sales rebounded, after dropping 0.2% in February, it jumped up 1.6% in March; and if you exclude Autos, then it jumped up 1.2%.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region dropped in April, as the Philly Fed went from 13.7 in March to 8.5 in April.  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash remained Unchanged in April at 52.4; whereas, the Services sector dropped from 55.3 to 52.9.  Business Inventories rose 03% in April.  Leading Indicators rose 0.4% in March.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the only index in Positive Territory.  Europe released more negative economic news, as it's PMI for both Manufacturing and Services dropped.  Investors will watch, as the DOJ release the Mueller Report to Congress.  MBS is Up 13bps, so Lenders will price Mortgage Rates better today.  Yields have slid down to 2.55% now.  The Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday/Passover, so there will be no report on Friday, the 19th.

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Daily Market Report 4/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inventories rose 0.2% in February.  Later today, the Fed's Beige Book will be released.  This will provide us with a more Micro view of our economy, broken down into regions.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory based on Mixed Corporate Earnings Reports released today.  Also, China reported it's Q1 economy maintained it's 6.4% YoY growth, same as it's Q4 results.  MBS is Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as this whole week has been moving in side ways pattern.  Yields have risen to 2.59%.

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Daily Market Report 4/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production dropped 0.1% in March, even though forecasts called for a rise of 0.1%.  On the same report, Capacity Utilization dropped from 79.0% to 78.8%, even though, it too, called for a rise on it's forecasts.  Home Builder's Confidence is slowly rising again, as it's Home Builder's Index rose from 62 to 63 in April.  Stocks are Up this morning on more good Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports.  MBS is down 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Adding to the pressure to MBS is the rising Yields, which are currently 2.58%.

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Daily Market Report 4/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing rebounded in the NY region, as the Empire State Index rose from 3.7 to 10.1 in April.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as a few financial institutions provided their Q1 Earnings Reports and disappionted the Markets.  MBS is only up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are still applying pressure to MBS and are currently up to 2.56%.

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Daily Market Report 4/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment dropped from 98.4 to 96.9 on it's Index in April.  Stocks are Up this morning on strong Q1 Earnings Reports today by some of the nation's largest banks, which is indicating a continued robust economy.  Also, China is seeing positive effects from it's stimulus, as more credit applications rise.  MBS is currently down 11bps, that coupled with yesterday's losses, will lead Lenders to worsen Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have now jumped up to 2.55%, adding more pressure to MBS.

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***Sorry for not getting out my video yesterday.  The video was made, but I could not get it uploaded onto YouTube.  I'll try uploading yesterday's video again today.*****

Daily Market Report 4/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Consumer Priced Index, an inflationary gauge for the consumer, rose 0.4% in March, which it's YoY rose from 1.5% to 1.9%; however, when you remove the food & energy (variables that cannot be controlled), you will receive the Core CPI, which only rose 0.1% in March, and it's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2%.  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released, so Investors will review how the Fed views Inflation currently and it's projections.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is lone index in Negative Territory.  Investors will be watching the EU Summit in hopes to see if the EU will be granting an extension, possibly a long-term one, to the UK for their upcoming departure.  Also, the ECB announced no changes to their interest rates or monetary policies.  MBS are Up 11bps, which Mortgage Rates are currently Unchanged; but, it's possible that it could Improve during the day, as the Yields have dropped to 2.47% -adding less pressure to MBS.

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Daily Market Report 4/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business, which gauges the Small Business' Confidence, increased 0.1 in it's index, going from 101.7 to 101.8 in March.  Job Openings shrank in February, as they went from 7.6 million in January to 7.1 million.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as the US threatened new Tariffs ($11 Billion) on EU products in retaliation to their subsidies to Airbus.  PM May is meeting with Chancellor Merkel and PM Macron regarding the possibility of a delay to Brexit.  The IMF has revised for the 3rd time this year a lower economic growth for world economy.  MBS is down 13bps, which Lenders will price Mortgage a little worse today.  Yields are around 2.50%.

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Daily Market Report 4/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only item on the Economic Calendar is Factory Orders, which dropped 0.5% in February.  Data show Manufacturing still strong, but they're becoming more cautious.  Stocks are down today after a nice ride upwards last week.  There is a Brexit deadline this week (the 12th), but they're trying to postpone it further.  Meanwhile, we wait to hear from the US and China on a date for their 2 presidents to sign the final agreement.  MBS is only Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are still hanging in the 2.51% range.

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Daily Market Report 4/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the Big Jobs Day!  Nonfarm Payrolls came in higher than expectation (177k) and much higher than February's number, which was revised higher (to 33k).  It came in at 196k.  The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8%.  However, Average Hourly Earnings only rose 0.1% in March.  It's YoY is still just over 3%, which Investors are happy because it's a happy medium between a strong economy and wage based inflation.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as a result of the Jobs data and continued optimism on an Trade Agreement between US and China.  MBS are Up 11bps, which coupled with yesterday's positive day, will lead to a little better pricing today, so Mortgage Rates are a little better today.  Yields have tempered a little, and have come down to 2.50%.

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Daily Market Report 4/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Reports continue to drop, as they go from 212k people applying for Unemployment Benefits the prior week to 202k applying for the Benefits last week.  Tomorrow is the Jobs Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  Stocks are Mixed this morning, as the DOW is the only index in Positive Territory.  Investors continue to watch for any news on the US/China Trade Talks.  President Trump is due to meet the Vice Premier today, just after close of the Stock Market.  Some think that a Summit might be announced around then.  We'll have to see!  Still more to hammer out in negotiations.  MBS are Up 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields remain at 2.51%.

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Daily Market Report 4/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today marks the first of 3 Job data this week, which we start with the ADP Employment Report.  It reported that there were 129k new jobs in the private sector.  Tomorrow will be the Weekly Jobless Claims, then Friday, will be the BLS' Jobs Report.  The Services Industry experienced a decline in March, as both the Markit Services PMI (came down from 56.0 to 55.3) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (down from 59.7% to 56.1%) dropped from February's data.  However, Stocks are Up this morning, taking the Global Lead, as reports surfaced that the US and China Trade Talks are about 90% completed.  The last 10% become a bit trickier, as each side will need to compromise.  Also, China had some positive economic data reported today, helping the Positive outlook today.  MBS are down 13bps, which will lead Lenders to worsen their Mortgage Rates a bit this morning.  Yields have climbed up to 2.51% now.

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Daily Market Report 4/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a fairly quiet day today, after Stocks held a pretty good rally yesterday.  Durable Goods Orders is the only item on the Economic Calendar today.  January's numbers were revised from being up 0.3% to being up 0.1%.  It dropped 1.6% in February, as forecasts showed a drop of 2.1%.  Transportation is the main dragging it down.  If you remove it, then it's up 0.1%.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory currently, with NASDAQ the only index in Positive Territory.  MBS is Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Some Lenders did a reprice yesterday for the worse, so rates worsened a bit; as today's pricing would correlate after yesterday's re-pricing.  Yields remain at 2.49%.

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Daily Market Report 4/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Jobs data will be the big news this week, but today, we have: Retail Sales, which declined by 0.2% in February; and declined by 0.4% without Autos.  Manufacturing is a bit Mixed today, as the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 53 to 52.4 in March; while ISM Manufacturing Index increased from 54.2% to 55.3%.  Construction Spending rose 1% in February.  Business Inventories rose 0.8% in January.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as Manufacturing in China improved after 4 months of contraction.  However, the news wasn't as good in the EU, as it continued to contract.  Talks resume in Washington between the US and China this week.  Reports from both parties indicate talks progressing nicely.  MBS is down 22bps, which translates to a little higher Mortgage Rates today; as, Investors move their funds from safe havens, like Bonds/MBS, to more risky investments, such as equities/stocks.  Yields have jumped up to 2.49%.  Much higher than last week!

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