Daily Market Report 12/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Happy New Years!  Hope you all have a fun, safe New Years Eve tonite!  We have a few data to report, which we'll begin with the Case Shiller HPI for October, which it rose from 3.2% to 3.3% YoY.  This is considered the "Gold Standard" index for Home Prices.  Consumer Confidence rose from 125.5 to 126.5 in December, which is another good sign for the economy.  Stocks are Down again this morning on rather light trading.  This time of year, the Big Trading Houses are typically working with skeleton crews, so we could see larger than normal swings in the Market because the Hedgefunds aren't trading to offset these types of swings.  President Trump tweeted that they will be signing the Phase One deal at the White House on January 15th.  The good news is already priced into the Stock Market.  The MBS is currently Down 6bps.  Yesterday's close had a late rally and closed Up 5bps.  Many Lenders improved their pricing in the late afternoon.  So, Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as after the price improvements in the afternoon.  Yields have inched it's way back up to 1.91% so far this morning.

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Daily Market Report 12/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Chicago PMI improved a little bit, as it went from 46.3 to 48.9 in December.  However, this still in contraction levels.  Pending Home Sales rose by 1.2% in November.  Stocks are in the Red this morning, as Investors reassess their positions in the Market.  As is the same for MBS, as it' currently Down 16bps.  Mortgage Rates are currently the same as Friday morning.  The Market improved on Friday, but most of those gains were late in the day, so Lenders didn't make any price changes.  Yields rebounded and are currently up to 1.93%.

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Daily Market Report 12/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are trading on light levels and in Mixed Territory so far this morning.  There was a report out of China that their November's Industrial Profits were Up and reversed several months of Negative Profits.  We're looking toward the signing of the Phase One Agreement sometime in January and Brexit.  Stocks have been on a pace, which it's daily breaking previous records, but it may be coming to some type of slowdown soon, as they're reaching a point that a correction may be warranted.  This could help Bonds/MBS.  MBS has had a few late mini rallies the last few days, which is helping its postioning.  It's currently Up 8bps and climbed above it's 25- and 50 DMA; and pushing up against it's 100 DMA.  You should see some slight improvement with Mortgage Rates with yesterday's late mini rally and today's improvement.  Yields have slid down to 1.88%.

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Daily Market Report 12/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped down to 222k last week.  Still relatively quiet, in terms of news, so the Market is still monitoring the Phase One Agreement.  Both sides are expressing that it's nearly done, it's a matter of translations and other fine details before both Presidents sign, which is expected to happen in January.  Stocks are Up this morning.  MBS is Down 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as we had a nice little surge late Tuesday (closed Up 11bps).  Yields are still hanging in near unchanged levels, as it's right around 1.92%.

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Daily Market Report 12/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data to report today.  Markets will close early today for Christmas and return on Thursday, which we'll see the Weekly Jobless Claims.  From now until the end of the year, we may see some swings in the Markets, as we deal with skeleton crews.  Beijing reported that they will be removing tariffs on 850 US products at the beginning of the year.   We're looking forward to learning more about the agreement and it's signing next month.  There's been some talk about N Korea's promise of a Christmas Gift, if we don't meet their demands.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday's close and Yields are down to 1.92%.  Mortgage Rates haven't changed from yesterday's pricing.  Have a very Merry Christmas!

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Daily Market Report 12/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Durable Goods Orders dropped by 2% in November, which was heavily affected by lack of Airline and Defense Goods being purchased.  When you remove autos, then it rose by 0.6%.  New Home Sales were revised lower from 733k annualized units to 710k in October.  In November it went to 719k, which it rose after the revision, but in reality, it dropped before the revision.  If you look further than the numbers, then you will know that New Home Sales are Up 17% YoY, which is what we really should be reviewing.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning on news that the CEO of Boeing resigned and that reports out of China indicate they will be either removing or lowering Tariffs on frozen pork, some high tech items and pharmaceuticals on January 1st.  MBS are currently off it's highs this morning, and currently Down 6bps.  Yields have pretty much plateaued at 1.92%.

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Daily Market Report 12/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Q3 GDP remained unchanged for it's final revision at 2.1%.  This indicates the economy is still growing at a modest pace, which is especially important due to the Trade negotiations with China during this period.  Personal Income rose by 0.5% in November.  Consumer Spending rose by 0.4% in November.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% MoM, whereas, it's YoY rose from 1.4% tp 1.5%.  The Core PCE (this is what the Fed uses when it gauges Consumer Inflation) rose only 0.1% MoM and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%.  The Fed's Target Rate is 2.0%, so this shows a very tame inflation report.  The Consumer Sentiment Index improved from 99.2 to 99.3 in December.  Stocks are still breaking new highs, so be cautious for any pull back on consolidation/profit taking.  MBS is currently Up 5bps.  Between yesterday's positive movement and today's, then some Lenders may price in Mortgage Rates a little better today.  I'd say you'd find it from Unchanged to slightly better.  Yields are currently at 1.92%.  The ceiling ahead is currently at 1.97%.  I think it's very possible that we could test it before we see any possibility of a pull back that would help MBS and Mortgage Rates.

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