Daily Market Report 9/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales jumped up from 666k in July to 713k in August.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Congress has announced an Inquiry into an Impeachment process.  This gave rise to Yields, thus affecting Bonds, which we'll see in a little bit.  Aso, Investors are still uncertain over the US and China Trade Negotiations, even though China has placed more orders for Soy and Pork with the US.  Later today, several Fed Members will be speaking, which could potentially lead to some volatility in the Markets.  MBS is currently down 11bps, but it's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged.  It's currently sitting just atop it's floor at the 50 DMA.  Yields have risen a bit to 1.67% on the Impeachment Inquiry news, which is what's adding pressure to the MBS this morning.

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Daily Market Report 9/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index remained Unchanged at 3.2% in July, as June's data was revised a little higher.  Consumer Confidence dropped a bit in September, from 134.2 to 125.1, due to the tensions that erupted between the US and China Trade Negotiations.  Stocks are Up this morning, as reports indicate that the talks between US and China continue to progress.  It was reported that the Top UK Court ruled that PM Johnson violated law last month on his suspension of Parliament as a tactic for Brexit.  The British Pound rose against the US dollar.  Also, reports out of Saudi Arabia that progress is being made on their recovery from the drone strikes and back to oil production.  MBS is Up 11bps, however, yesterday it closed -5bps, even though it was in Positive Territory for most of day.  We're around same levels as yesterday morning (between 25- and 50-DMA), so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields had similar reaction yesterday and are back to 1.67%.  Both are heading toward a possible Breakout, which that Trend appears to favor Bonds.  The concern lies iwth Friday's report of the PCE, which could have an adverse effect on MBS, if it comes in a bit hot.

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Daily Market Report 9/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have data from Markit PMI flash for the month of September.  The manufaturing data rose to 51.0; while the services data rose to 50.9.  However, the Eurozone reported some pretty ugly numbers in manufacturing, which is partly why Stocks are currently in the Red this morning.  The Chinese are reporting that the cancellation of the farm visits in Montana have no bearing on the negotiations and were downplaying it's meaning.  This is helping to ease the Markets some, as it turned a bit ugly on Friday after the announcement.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage rates are better today.  They broke above it's 50 DMA on Friday and continue to rise, and will face resistance at the 25 DMA.  The Yields are down to 1.67%, and approaching it's floor at the 25 DMA.  It broke below it's double floor (50 DMA and Fibonacci) on Friday and continuing it's downward trend.  There is caution this week, as the PCE report is due Friday.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  The CPI last reported at a 11 year high.  If PCE comes in a bit hot on Friday, then MBS may lose much of it's gains, as inflation is the worst enemy to Bonds/MBS.  Be cautious this week!

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Daily Market Report 9/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We don't have any data to report from the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up again today and approaching new highs again.  Tensions between US and China appear to be easing, as they're currently meeting to prepare for the bigger meeting in October.  A few members of the Fed spoke today, after the FOMC which the Dissenters relayed their reasons for the dissension.  Today, it's Quadruple Witching Day on Wall Street, so we may see some re-balancing in stocks, which may or may not help Bonds.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but it's not quite enough to improve Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged again today.  Yields are trying to remain above it's double floor of support, which it's just below it, at 1.77%.

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Daily Market Report 9/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims beat forecasts and rose only 2k, to 208k.  The Philly Fed dropped from 16.8 to 12.0 in Sept., but still beat it's projection at 10.0.  This measures the manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  Existing Home Sales rose in August from 5.42 million annualized units to 5.49 million, which forecasts were calling for a drop to 5.39 million.  Leading Indicators were flat in August.  Stocks are Up this morning after the FOMC announcment, and they liked today's data.  MBS is Up 6bps, but it's not enough to change Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting just above a double layer of support at the 2.79%.

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Daily Market Report 9/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Both Housing Starts and Permits had a very nice spike in August, which coincides with yesterday's NAHB Home Builder Index.  Housing Starts jumped Up from 1.215 million annualized units to 1.364 million.  Permits leaped from 1.317 million annualized units to 1.419 million.  Around 11am PST, the Fed will release their statement, which we expect a 0.25% Rate Cut.  Stocks are Down ahead of the Fed's Decision.  Also, the Fed had to intervene with the Markets yesterday because there seems to have been a bit of a Liquidity issue.  MBS improved as the day went on yesterday, and is Up 17bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Better so far.  If there is any concern over Inflation, then this could spook the Markets, and we'll see a pullback in the the Bond Market (negatively affecting Mortage Rates).  Yields have slid down to 1.75% now.

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Daily Market Report 9/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production rose 0.6% in August; and Capacity Utilization rose from 77.5% to 77.9%.  Last, but not least, the Home Builder's Index rose from 66 to 68 in September.  This index measures the confidence level of Home Builders.  The Sentiment from the Attacks on Saudi Oil Processing Plants are lingering into today's trading.  Stocks started in the Red, but have eased up a bit, and now are Mixed.  We saw the biggest spike since September 2008 in Oil prices yesterday, so Investors are watching this carefully.  This could lead into talk of Inflation, which is the enemy of MBS/Bonds, as it erodes it's value over time.  The FOMC begin their 2 day meeting today, which they're expected a 0.25% Rate Cut.  If there's any mention of concern over inflation, then we could see an adverse effect with MBS and Mortgage Rates.  MBS are currently Up 2bps.  So, no change in Mortgage Rates from yesterday's pricing today.  Yields are slid a bit to 1.83%.  The Good News is the Stochastic Chart seems to reflect a reversal in the trend of both MBS and Yields, so we may reclaim some of the lost pricing and improvement with Mortgage Rates in the near term.

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