Daily Market Report 2/21/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have reports from Markit PMI flash for the month of February with both sectors (Manufacturing and Services) reporting.  The Manufacturing dropped from 51.9 in January to 50.8 in February; while, Services dropped from 53.4 in January to 49.4 in February.  Any number above 50 is optimism/expansion and below 50 is negative/contraction.  Existing Home Sales slowed a bit in January, as it reported 5.46 million annualized units.  These numbers are a bit understated due to low inventory levels.  Stocks are looking at the Markit PMI flash data being reported and understanding the impact of the coronavirus on the global supply chain and economic expansion.  Stocks are down as a result of these concerns.  MBS is the benefactor, as it's Up 8bps this morning, but yesterday closed Up near it's highs, so we're able to move a bit higher on the chart and see a little bit better pricing for Mortgage Rates this morning (after nearly 2 weeks of stagnant movement).  Meanwhile, Yields are in abit of a freefall, as it dropped below 2 layers of floors of support, and currently sitting at 1.46%.  Next floor is at 1.43%.

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Daily Market Report 2/20/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rose by 4k from previous report to 210k, which is still a very strong number.  This week's report carries more weight because it is the "sample" week, which is used toward the calculation for the Bureau of Labors Jobs numbers due March 6th.  The manufacturing in the Philadelphia region was on fire in February, as the Philly Fed Index rose to 36.7, which is a 2 year high.  Also, the Economic Leading Indicators rose by 0.8% in February.  Currently, Stocks have slid into the Red this morning, as more concerns over the coronavirus.  Investors are starting to realize they may have underestimated it's impact globally.  There was a merger announced between Morgan Stanley and E Trade today.  MBS is enjoying a bit of flight to safety, as it is Up 8bps.  It's not quite there for any improvements (but very close).  So, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are falling, which the 10 year is currently at 1.52%.  After being propped up with Treasury purchases by the Fed, now were starting to see some Inverted Yield Curves.  We'll watch to see if this continues.

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Daily Market Report 2/19/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts, which had a 14 year high in December was revised higher from 1.608 million to 1.626 million; so, it stands to reason there will be a bit of a pull back in January, which it did decline to 1.567 million. It's still better than it's forecast of 1.440 million.  Media is harping on the drop of 3.6%, but if you remove the positive revisions, then it's 2.5% drop; also, they're not informing the public that December's number was a 14 year high.  Building Permits increased from 1.420 million in December to 1.551 million.  This is a 13 year high in Building Permits.  This data is important because it's future Housing Starts.  The Producer Price Index and it's Core PPI (PPI excluding food and energy) spiked up 0.5% in January.  The YoY for the PPI rose from 1.3% to 2.1% in January; whereas, it's Core PPI rose from 1.1% to 1.7% in January.  This is a pretty steep spike, so we'll definitely keep our eyes on it.  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released.  Most of this info will be outdated, as the Fed Chair testified before Congress last week.  However, Investors may look for any insight to possible Rate Cuts for this summer.  Stocks are Up this morning on news that China is implementing some measures to help the Small Businesses that are affected by the coronavirus after Apple and Walmart warned about future profits being affected by it yesterday.  We have several Fed Members speaking today.  MBS is currently Down 2bps.  We haven't been having much movement in either direction to move pricing on Mortgage Rates in either direction, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields have climbed a little bit to just under 1.57%.

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Daily Market Report 2/18/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Empire State Index (Manufacturing in the NY region) indicated some strength in February after jumping from 4.8 in January to 12.9.  NAHB Home Builders Index, which indicates the confidence level with Home Builders, dropped one point to 74 in February.  However, Stocks are in the Red on reports by Apple and Walmart that they won't meet 2nd Quarter expectations for earnings, as the coronavirus continues to hurt production in China.  Our thoughts and prayers are out to those whom have passed and those whom have been infected; and hope the virus is eradicated quickly.  Investments are flowing toward "safe havens" like the MBS, which is Up 8bps.  It's not quite enough to see improvement, but may see it tomorrow.  Currently, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields have stumbled down to 1.54% now.

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Daily Market Report 2/14/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales (both headline and excluding Autos) rose 0.3% in January.  Import Price Index remained Unchanged in January.  However, Industrial Production dropped 0.3% in January and Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.1% to 76.8%.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 100.9 in February.  Last, but not least, Business Inventories rose 0.1% in December.  Stocks are lightly trading and stepping back and forth in Positive and Negative Territory, as Investors are having heightened concerns about the data being received out of China that it may be well under-reported.  MBS is Up 5bps this morning, as Mortgage Rates have basically remained the same all week (Unchanged).  Yields have fallen down to 1.58%.

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Daily Market Report 2/13/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Report rose by 2k to 205k.  Consumer Price Index rose by 0.1% in January; however, it's YoY rose from 2.3% to 2.5%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% in January; however, it's YoY remained Unchanged at 2.3%.  Stocks are down this morning, as Investors turn to the ever increasing numbers of diagnosed patients and death tolls as a result from the coronavirus.  MBS is Up 5bps this morning and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Because we haven't had really any large price swings this week, the Mortgage Rates have pretty much remained intact this week.  Yields have climbed a little higher to 1.62%.

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Daily Market Report 2/12/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Up again today, as DOW and S&P reach new highs.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be testifying before the Senate today.  His talking points from yesterday's testimony will remain the same, however, the Senate may have other questions for him.  Also, later today, there is a 10yr Treasury Auction, which can affect the Markets.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, however, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are Up to 1.63% (sorry, I mistakenly stated 1.66% in the video).

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