Daily Market Report 1/10/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed with 145k jobs in December based on 156k forecasts.  November and October numbers were revised lower by 14k.  However, the Unemployment Rate remains Unchanged at 3.5%.  Average Hourly Earnings also disappointed, as it only rose 0.1%, as forecasts called for 0.3%.  We'll watch these numbers, as it appears that we're seeing Weekly Earnings decreasing, which may be an indicator that Businesses may be cutting back on hours and employment income in order to avoid job cuts.  Stocks are currently trading in light trade in Positive Territory.  The delegate from China is expected to arrive on Monday for the Phase One signing.  MBS rebounded nicely late yesterday and that momentum is carrying on this morning, as MBS is Up 5bps.  Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday mornings pricing.  Yields are now at 1.83%.

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Daily Market Report 1/9/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Report continues to show strong labor market, as only 214k people applied for benefits last week.  Stocks are Up this morning, as tensions in the Middle East seem to calm down; and China announced they'll be in Washington DC to sign the Phase One Agreement.  MBS took a hit yesterday afternoon, as Lenders re-priced for the worst.  It broke below it's floor of support (fibonacci) and today it fell further and tested the next floor at 100 DMA.  Currently, it's down 3bps (off from lows).  Pricing is worse than yesterday morning's pricing, but similar to yesterday's close.  Yields have climbed again, up to the 1.87% to 1.88% range.

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Daily Market Report 1/8/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP report on new jobs came in hot!  The November numbers were revised higher.  The initial data for November was 67k and revised higher by 57k to 124k.  In December, it rose to 202k; so, very nice numbers!  We'll get to view the BLS' numbers on Friday, which will be the Big One!  Stocks started the morning Way Down, after Missle Strikes by Iran on US Military bases in Iraq.  They rebounded into Positive Territory, after the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that concluded their intentions and do not wish to escalate further.  President Trump tweeted shortly after that damages were minor and so far no casualties have been reported; and he'll give an address at 11am PST this morning.  However, the DOW is being weighted down a bit this morning by Boeing (it carries a lot of weight on the index) because of a tragic Ukrainianan airline crash (on a Boeing 737, not the MAX) in Tehran,just after takeoff (killing all those onboard).  MBS is currently Down 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday.  We may have topped out, so be a bit cautious, if you are in a transaction and floating any rates.  Yields started much lower this morning, but rebounded Up to 1.82%.

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Daily Market Report 1/7/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which is the "Gold Standard" index in it's reports of the health of the Services Industry, rose from 53. 9% in November to 55.0% in December.  This followed the same trend as yesterday's Markit Services PMI data, but a greater jump upwards.  Factory orders dropped 0.7% in November.  Stocks started the morning in Mixed territory, as it struggled yesterday and closed in Positive territory, but it currently went into Negative mode, as concerns outweigh everything else over the Middle East tensions.  Investors are deciding where to place their money.  MBS is currently down 3bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing (same as Friday's pricing too).  Yields have climbed upward to 1.81% o 1.82%.

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Daily Market Report 1/6/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Services PMI rose from 52.2 in November to 52.8 in December.  Stocks started the Morning in the Red, as Investors continued their concerns over the Drone Strikes in Iraq last week; however, the sentiment softened, and Stocks closed in Positive Territory.  MBS is about to close and is currently Up 2bps.  Mortgage Rates remained Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are Up to 1.80%.

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Daily Market Report 1/3/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ISM Manufacturing Index disappointed, as it dropped in December (going from 48.1% in November to 47.2% in December).  Analysts may begin to disregard this report in the near future, as Boeing intends to halt their 737 Max production in January.  Production by Boeing make up a very large component of the index, which will complicate the data being reported thereafter.  Construction Spending rose by 0.6% in November, exceeding expectations.  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released.  Typically, this could move Markets, but the last meeting was unanimous in their interest rate vote, so we don't anticipate any surprises.  Stocks are in the Red this morning on news that tensions are heightening between the US and Iran, as the US sent in an Drone Strike to a Baghdad airport that killed the Iranian top military commander.  Iran stated they will revenge.  This is on the heels of back and forth attacks recently that have left casualties on both sides.  MBS is gaining on this news, as Investors go to "Flight to Safety" by pulling their investment money from "risky" equities to the safe haven of bonds.  MBS is Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates improved a little bit today.  This Geo Political news may help to keep Bonds higher, which we'll keep watching.  Yields have slid down to 1.83%.

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Daily Market Report 1/2/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobs reported that 222k people applied for first time unemployment benefits last week.  The previous report was revised higher by 2k, to 224k.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI released their final number for December, which came in at 52.4.  This is higher than it's initial reading of 52.2, but lower than November's report at 52.6.  Stocks are Up this morning as we begin the New Year.  The only Market news is out of China, which the People's Bank of China lowered their reserve requirement on deposits for Commercial Banks, in order to stimulate it's economy.  They reduced it by 0.5%.  Also, like our Manufacturing data being reported today, their PMI came in lower than November's report, but still in expanding territory.  MBS is currently Up 17bps.  If they can maintain these levels, then there's potential improvement for rates, as there will be approximately another 40bps until next resistance level.  That will be approximately .125% to .250% improvement to Mortgage Rates, as they have improved a bit today.  Yields are falling, as they've reached just below the 1.86% level.

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