Daily Market Report 2/28/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Chicago PMI dramatically dropped from 65.2 in January to 56.3 in February.  This index measures the business and manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Big tickets for the Economic Calendar this week will be February's Jobs data.  The biggest impact for the Markets today continues with the Ukraine/Russia narrative.  It is reported that Russia put their nuclear defense into high alert.  Meanwhile, the US Treasury will not trade US dollars with Russian Central Bank and Russian Banks were removed from SWIFT.  All these actions, along with more, are negatively affecting the Stock Market.  Investors are moving their investment dollars to "flight to safety" by placing them into Bonds/Treasuries.  MBS is currently Up 48bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved since Friday's close.  Also, Yields have dropped all the way down to 1.86%.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/25/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The big data point for this week was released today, which is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).  This carries a lot of weight, as it is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  The Headline Number rose 0.6% in January, while it's YoY rose to 6.1%.  It's Core PCE (excludes food & energy), which is really what the Fed watches, had increased by 0.5% and it's YoY increased to 5.2%.  Personal Income remained Unchanged in January; but not Consumer Spending, which went up 1.5%.  Durable Goods rose 1.6% in January; but if you exclude Transportation, then it rose only by 0.7%.  It's good to review without Transportation because the larger numbers can skew the overall numbers of the whole.  Meanwhile, Pending Home Sales dropped 5.7% in January.  This is after a 3.8% drop in December.  Something to monitor!  Fortunately, Consumer Sentiment rose from 61.7 in January to 62.8 in February.   There have been 2 factors affecting the Markets of late.  This week, it's been the escalation of  Russia and Ukraine.  There are reports today that Russia is reaching out today with diplomacy, which is creating some optimism in the Markets.  Stocks are Up on the news.  The other factor lies with the transition in the Fed Policy change.  Some were hoping the Fed may delay their rate hikes due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict; however, it doesn't appear to be deterring them.  The question is now on the increment of the rate hike, 0.25% or 0.5%?  This is the uncertainty that Investors dislike.  Today, investors money is transitioning from the Bond Market back to the Equities; so, MBS is currently Down 8bps.  This isn't enough to warrant worse pricing; so, Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's rate sheets.  Yields are currently at 1.99% after touching 2.00% earlier this morning. 

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/24/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 232k last week with Continuing Claims decreasing too.  The second look at the Q4 GDP increased to 7.0% (from 6.9%), as we'll receive the final reading next month.  New Home Sales dropped 4.5% to 801k seasonally adjusted annualized units fro the month of January.  However, December's data was revised higher, from 811k to 839k seasonally adjusted annualized units.  Later today, we'll get the results for the 7 year Note Auction, which could have some impact on the Markets.  This whole week has been based on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had escalated further; and it is believed that Ukraine will fall to Russian within days.  It is unknown how these new movements will affect NATO's and US' stance on the invasion, as they've already implemented sanctions.  Also, they'll be factoring China's stance too.  All this bad news has not been kind to stocks, which are still dropping.  However, it is helping MBS today, as we're down for the day, but still higher than yesterday's close.  We're currently Up about 25bps, which Lenders will have better pricing on their Mortgage Rate sheets.  Yields have started to fall further.  They've dropped below a Technical floor and it's 25 DMA.  It's currently sitting at 1.93%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/23/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We don't have anything to report on the Economic Calendar today; however, there is a 5 year Treasury Note Auction at 10am PST, which may have some impact with the Market today.  The main culprit for impacting both the Stock Market and MBS Market adversely today (similar to yesterday) is the concerns of further escalation by Russia with Ukraine.  MBS closed Down 38bps yesterday, which led Lenders to reprice for the worse.  Today, MBS opened lower, but not enough to really change pricing for Mortgage Rates (Unchanged).  However, over the past few minutes, the Market seems to be showing some improvement; and Lenders are beginning to reprice their ratesheets for the better.  It's currently Up about 0-3bps, but it's up from -9bps earlier.  Yields are trying to break above it's Technical Ceiling and sitting just under 1.98% currently.

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Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/22/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Case Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) rose 1.5% in December; and it's YoY increased to 18.6%.  This index measures home appreciation in the 20 Largest Markets in the US.  However, the FHFA Home Price Index rose 1.2% in December, while it's YoY remained Unchanged at 17.6%.  This index measures the homes with conforming loans attached to them.  IHS Markit PMI released both their Manufacturing and Services data for February.  Both sectors increased, as January was badly affected by Omicron.  The Manufacturing rose from 55.5 in January to 57.5 in February.  The Services rose from 51.2 in January to 56.7 in February.  Lastly, the Consumer Confidence dropped to 110.5 in February.  Both Stocks and MBS are Down today based on yesterday's news (Russian advances into Pro-Russian sections of Ukraine).  US and allies retaliate with sanctions.  MBS is currently Down 17bps, which has Mortgage Rates priced a little worse today.  Yields are currently sitting around the 1.93% level.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/18/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Home Sales jumped up to 6.5 million seasonally adjusted units in January (up 6.7%), beating expectations of 6.1 million.  However, several variables (like Omicron, inflation, continued issues with supply chain, etc..) slowed down economic activity by 0.3%, according to the Leading Indicators Index for the month of January.  Stocks are Down again, as escalating tensions build between Ukraine/Russia.  Investors continue with moving their investment dollars over to MBS/Bonds as a "flight to safety".  Obviously, this is helping Mortgage Rates for short-term improvement.  MBS are currently Up 11bps, which isn't quite enough to improve Mortgage Rates from yesterday (currently Unchanged); however, we have an 3 day weekend ahead and you may see more money coming over, which will bump up MBS.  If this occurs, then we may see some price improvements later in the day.  Yields have now slid down to 1.93%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/17/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped by 4.1% in January, as it's down to 1.638 million seasonally adjusted units.  This was partially due to weather and possibly increasing mortgage rates.  If you look inside the numbers, then you'll notice that there were an increase in single family being built and a drop with multi-family.  However, Building Permits rose by 0.7% in January to 1.899 million seasonally adjusted units.  This is considered "future" housing starts.  The Philly Fed Index dropped from 23.2 in January to 16.0 in February.  This index measures the manufacturing within the Philadelphia region.  Meanwhile, Jobless Claims rose to 248k from last week's 225k.  MBS is benefitting today, as it's now up to 36bps; and Mortgage Rate slightly improve.  This is based on Investors moving investment dollars from stocks, which are in negative territory, to MBS/Bonds.  This movement is occurring because of escalation of tension between Ukraine/Russia, including reports of some shots being fired along the eastern border.  Also, warnings of invasion to occur any time.  This news is helping Mortgage Rates today and pushing the 10 Year Treasuries lower, to 1.97% (now back below the 2.0% level).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/16/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales rebounded in January, as it was reported up 3.8%; however, it's December's number was revised lower, from -1.9% to -2.5%.  Fortunately, Markets are still viewing the January's data as being positive!  Industrial Production exceeded expectations for January, as it rose 1.4%.  Rising Mortgage Rates in February has the Home Builders Confidence down a bit this month, as the NAHB Home Builders Index dropped from 83 in January to 82 in February.  Business Inventories continue to increase, as it rose 2.1% in December.  Lastly, the FOMC Minutes were released, which had the Markets a bit unhinged leading up to it this morning offered nothing new to report; which leads to uncertainty to it's upcoming March FOMC.  Philadelphia's Fed Member suggested today that he'd be in favor of a 0.25% rate hike in March, then rise in a methodical movement for future hikes.  Unfortunately, we still have other members whom are in favor of a 0.5% rate hike in March; so, the uncertainty surrounding this has the Markets in high volatility mode.  Also, stirring up the Markets is the Ukraine/Russia situation.  After reports yesterday of possible troop withdrawals from the border; today, it is being that troops haven't been pulled and there is a possibility of an increase of troops being placed at the border.  Stocks are down on this news.  MBS on the other hand, have been up and down all day.  It went negative just prior to the release of the FOMC Minutes to improving to positive territory (it was Up 9bps while creating this video).  Mortgage Rates for the most part have remained the same after yesterday's close.  Similarly, Yields have been volatile today too, as it's currently sitting around 2.04%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/15/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today, we received inflation data for the Wholesale, which doesn't always receive the same respect as it's counter parts (CPI and PCE).  The reason for the lesser importance is that Wholesalers don't always pass along the higher expenses to the Consumer; but obviously, they have a tolerance point and it needs to be passed along.  And we've seen a lot of that over the past year!  The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.0% in January; and the Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.8%.  After the higher revision for the Core PPI in December (going from 8.3% to 8.5%), then it dropped back down to 8.3% in January (vs Unchanged).  Lastly, we have manufacturing data from NY region, which had contracted in January.  In February, the Empire State Index rose up to 3.1, which didn't meet the forecasts of 12.15.  Stocks are Up on news that Russia is working with NATO on diplomacy regarding Ukraine; and that possibly some of their border troops may have been returned to their previous base(s).  Meanwhile, Investors are still searching for clues on possible rate hikes and clarificaion on the Fed's Balance sheet reduction.  MBS are currently Down about 16bps (after they closed down 25bps, off from earlier lows); which means that Mortgage Rates continue to rise.  Yields broke back above the 2.0% range and is sitting around 2.04%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/14/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data  being reported today; however, the rest of the week will get busy with data from Housing, inflation, retail sales and manufacturing.  There were 2 Fed Members speaking today, whom are voting members, so their words carry weight.  There's still some uncertainty about whether the Fed will hike 0.5% at it's March FOMC, but it appears to be in agreement on the importance of it's Balance Sheet reduction.  But the BIG Headlines are coming out of Ukraine, which it's being reported that Russia will attack on the 16th and satellite images indicate that Russia's troops are now being moved into attack formations.  This has the Markets in a very volatile state with Stocks in the Red.  MBS is in Negative Territory, but it's really fluctuating a lot (any where between -20bps and -35bps).  This has led some Lenders to reprice both ways, so it's really difficult to say which way it will finish.  We received assistance on Friday when the news broke out on Ukraine/Russia, which we went from negative territory to closing up 53bps.  However, today's pricing for Mortgage Rates are a little worse than Friday's close.  Meanwhile, Yields have been teetering back and forth from it's 2.00% level -going above and above.  It's currently just under 2.00%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/11/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Sentiment dropped to a Decade low, to 61.7 in February from 67.2 in January.  This is the lowest number since 2011.  Investors are still uncertain how the Fed will proceed once the March FOMC begins, as they receive mixed messages from the Fed.  MBS closed Down 83bps yesterday.  Like Stocks today, MBS is experiencing some very choppy trading today, as it was Up 35bps a bit earlier, to fall in Negative Territory (currently Down about 6bps).  Lenders are re-pricing their Rate sheets for the worse, as Mortgage Rates continue it's rise.  Yields broke above the 2.0% range yesterday and is Up to 2.05% currently.  Otherwise, it's been a slow day; but the uncertainty to what the Fed will do at their upcoming FOMC is making the Markets very choppy.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/10/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The data that we've been waiting all week has come; and it was a little worse than anticipated!  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% for the month of January; as did the Core CPI (excluding food & energy).  The YoY for for CPI rose from 7.0% in December to 7.5% in January; and the Core CPI rose from 5.5% to 6.0%.  This data is the hottest last seen since 1982 when Fed Chair Volker raised interest rates all the way to about 18%.  We probably won't see that high of rates, but they are rising.  This adds to the increased probability of the Fed raising it's rate hike in March by 0.5% (in lieu of the usual 0.25% increment).  One thing to note, is that the effect of these hikes doesn't not happen immediately, but approximately 6 months before we feel it in the economy.  Both Stocks and MBS dropped dramatically after the reading!  MBS was Down about 65bps; and when Fed Member Bullard mentioned that he'd be in favor of a 0.5% rate hike and raising rates by 100bps by it's July meeting, then the Markets dropped further (MBS was Down about 85bps).  As I was doing the video, MBS was subsiding a bit and was Down around the 65bps point again.  On the other note, Yields finally reached the 2.0% threshold, as it is currently just under 2.03%.  Now another piece of economic data that was released today was the Initial Jobless Claims, which came in with 223k people applying for first time benefits.  This is relatively important, but the CPI report is the main focus for investors today!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/9/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Wholesale Inventory rose by 2.2% in December.  We're waiting on the results of the upcoming 10 year Treasury Auction today, which may have an impact with our MBS Market.  If there's a good appetite for them, as they've gone up since the last auction, then it could have a positive impact for Mortgage Rates.  Tomorrow will be the release of the CPI data, which Investors are awaiting it's release.  Today, Raphael Bostic, whom is a non-voting Fed Board Member mentioned that he expects the Fed to have 3 0.25% point hikes this year, with the possibility of a 4th; and wants to dramatically reduce the Balance sheet.  Meanwhile, Stocks are reviewing the Q4 Earnings Reports.  MBS has been in a fairly wide range within the past half hour of doing this video, which fluctuated between +8bps and -3bps; however, this fluctuation isn't enough to move Mortgage Rates, which has remained Unchanged from yesterday's close.  Yields settled back below it's Technical ceiling, which it broke yesterday; and is just under 1.93%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/8/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's nothing to report on the Economid Calendar today.  This week will be relatively light!  The biggest data will be reported on Thursday, which will be the CPI report, as Inflation is the most important topic now!  There will be a 3 year Treasury Auction today, but this shouldn't have much impact with the Markets today.  Stocks are Up on Q4 Earnings Reports being released.  However, MBS is Down 20bps, as Investors move investment dollars to Equities.  Mortgage rates are Up, as a result.  Yields continue to spike, as they test a new Technical ceiling.  We're currently at 1.96% and look to challenge the 2.0% threshold sooner than later.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/7/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's nothing to report on the Economid Calendar today.  This week will be relatively light!  The biggest data will be reported on Thursday, which will be the CPI report, as Inflation is the most important topic now!  Also, we'll have some Treasury Auctions this week.  Stocks are in Mixed territory today, as they review Q4 Earnings reports.  MBS is just following suit to the Investors movements, which isn't having much action today.  It's currently Up 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's big selloff (closed Down 42bps; however, off from earlier lows of -65bps).  Likewise, Yields remain Unchanged levels too (around 1.91%).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/4/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Average Earnings rose 0.7% in January; however, Average Work week Hours dipped from 34.7 to 34.5.  The Non Farm Payrolls shocked the Markets today with 467k new jobs in January; and it's December's numbers were revised much higher (from 199k to 510k).  This is why we don't give too much weight to the ADP data!!!!  They don't always correlate!  However, the Unemployment Rate did rise slightly, from 3.9% to 4.0%.  Stocks are Mixed on the data; and MBS was WAY Down (-50bps), but have subsided a little (Down 42bps currently).  This is a situation that Good News is Bad News to the Markets, as the possibility of the Fed raising rates by 0.5% (in lieu of the usual 0.25%) increased for it's March FOMC.  Meanwhile, Yields skyrocketed to just under 1.92%; and potentially on it's way to the 2.0% mark!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/3/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims dropped 23k from last weeks report to 238k this week's report.  The initial or preliminary look at Labor Costs for Q4 were up only 0.3% after seeing 9.3% in the Q3.  Hopefully, this means that inflation will subside!  Meanwhile, the preliminary look at Q4 Productivity rose 6.6% after a drop of 5.0% in Q3.  The ISM Non Manufacturing PMI dropped from 62.3 to 59.9 in January, as many retail stores, restaurants, etc... were hurt due to the omicron variant.  Lastly, Factory Orders dropped 0.4% in December.  Stocks are down on Facebook's disappointing Quarterly report and it's future forecasts.  Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) raised their rates a 0.25% today; and the ECB primed the Markets for a rate hike at it's next meeting (in March) -similarly as our Fed.  The BoE rate hike hit our Bond Market pretty hard today, as the MBS dropped Down 33bps; and Mortgage Rates worsened a bit, as a result.  Yields jumped Up to 1.83%, breaking above another Technical ceiling.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/2/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The first Jobs data for this week was released and sorely missed it's forecast.  The ADP's Private Payrolls lost 301k jobs last month (in January); and it's December's numbers were revised lower, from 807k to 776k.  Most of this is being attributed to the omicron variant, but it may also be a mixture of the omicron and seasonal work for the holidays.  This was mostly affecting the Services and Goods Industries; and mostly Small Business.  Economists are now lowering their forecasts for the BLS report due this Friday to approximately 150k.  They were expecting about 207k for the ADP report, so you can see how much of a miss it was.  It's been a very volatile morning for both Stocks and Bonds; however, MBS is currently Up 19bps; and slowly approaching it's 25 DMA.  Mortgage Rates are better today.  Yields are off their highs and reversed below it's Technical floor and almost touching it's 25 DMA.  It's currently just under 1.75%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.

Daily Market Report 2/1/22

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 58.8 in December to 57.6 in January.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion with this index.  Construction Spending rose only 0.2% in December (missing forecasts of 0.6%).  If you look inside the ISM Manufacturing PMI data, then you will find that there was a big spike with "prices paid", which is concerning the Markets, as this is inflationary data; and inflation is the aforementioned concern (along with the Fed's reaction to it).  This piece of data and comments by Fed's Harker reversed what appeared to be a good day for MBS.  MBS started off higher than yesterday's close, only to drop well into negative territory.  Harker mentioned that the Fed could start off with a 0.5% rate hike in March, which will be dependent upon inflaion data; and looking into the possibility of selling off it's Balance Sheet (earliest this would happen after June).  MBS has since subsided; and is currently Down between 5-9 bps.  Mortgage Rates are a little higher today, but if the MBS continues to pull back a bit more, then Lenders may reprice to Unchanged levels.  Like MBS, Yields started below a tough Technical floor and broke above it and tested the Technical ceiling.  Currently, it's residing between both Technical levels at 1.80% range.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.