Daily Market Report 6/30/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The lockdown didn't stop home values from rising, according to Case Shiller,  as it's Home Price Index indicated that  home values rose from 4.6% YoY in March to 4.7% in April.  However, news weren't so great in Chicago, as manufacturing is still a concern.  The Chicago PMI only rose from 32.3 to 36.6 in June.  Anything below 50 is contraction/pessimistic territory.  It's counter-parts in the NE have vastly improved to near 50 territory.  But Consumer Confidence has improved from 85.9 in May to 98.1 in June.  Stocks are Up on this news, as they watch Fed Chair Powell and his counter-part at the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, testify before the House Committee.  Also, there are a few Fed Speakers today.  MBS is currently Up 8bps and trending upward.  This isn't quite enough to see any rate improvement, as Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are trending lower and currently sit around 0.63%

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Daily Market Report 6/29/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  After dropping 21.8% in April, Pending Home Sales rebounded in a big way in May, as it jumped up 44.3% in May.  Stocks were a bit mixed this morning, as the NASDAQ was the only index in the Red this morning, but not by much.  Coronavirus remain in the spotlight, as the numbers continue to increase and the V shaped recovery may not be in the cards.  MBS started a little higher this morning, but has since withdrawn and sit at Unchanged levels from Friday's close; so, Mortgage Rates remain the same as Friday's.  Yields have pulled back too, as it sits at 0.64%.

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Daily Market Report 6/26/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Personal Income dropped by 4.2% in May; whereas, its counter-part, Consumer Spending rose 8.2% in May.  Both the PCE and Core PCE rose by 0.1% in May.  The PCE's YoY dropped from 0.6% in April to 0.5% in May; whereas, the Core PCE remained Unchanged at 1% in May.  Consumer Sentiment declined from initial 78.9 to 78.1 for final revision to June, which was probably due to the Mass Protests and Riots.  Meanwhile, Stocks are Down again over concerns of rising cases of Covid-19 .  Investors are reviewing the latest updates on the Banks Stress Tests released yesterday evening and the loosening of restrictions of the Volcker Rule on Banks.  The ECB's Christine Lagarde stated that she feels that we're past the low point of the pandemic, however, there's still the possibility of a 2nd wave.  MBS is doing well today, as they're Up 19bps; so Mortgage Rates are improving more today.  Yields are falling, and currently sit around 0.63%.

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Daily Market Report 6/25/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims continue their trend downward, but not quite at the pace everybody wishes, as they to from 1.51 million people applying for first time benefits in last week's report to 1.48 million in today's report.  Durable Goods Orders rebounded in May, jumping up 15.8%; and when you exclude Transportation, then it jumped up 4.0%.  Q1 GDP remained unchanged at -5.0%.  This is the final revision for Q1 GDP.  Investors will be looking to Q2 next month.  Stocks started the morning higher on news that Bank Regulators will be loosening some of the restrictions on Banks, placed by Volcker's Rule, that will allow Banks to invest in large capitals and not have to save funds for dividends, in order to free up capital in the Markets.  Stocks have since gone into Negative Territory this morning, and will be waiting on results from Bank Stress Tests.  MBS is Down 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  They closed upward of +9bps yesterday, furthering away from 25 DMA.  Yields lost all of it's gains yesterday, which brought it past 50 DMA and right up to 25 DMA, and now back below all of those levels, sitting at 0.67%

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Daily Market Report 6/24/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FHFA Home Price Index pulled back in April, as it went from 5.9% YoY appreciation in March to 5.5% YoY in April.  This will most likely begin to rise again, as the economy begins to reopen.  Stocks are Down this morning over concerns of a possible 2nd Wave of Coronavirus, as more reports come in with higher numbers, including higher hospitalization rates in some areas.  There have been some reports that the US may impose some tariffs on aluminum from Canada and some goods from Europe.  This doesn't sit well, as it may escalate into trade tension, which is not welcomed during this current economic crisis.  The IMF revised their reports lower again.  MBS is Up on 2bps currently.  It started the morning lower, testing it's new floor (25 DMA); but it's also off from it's highs; thus, creating some uncertainty in the Markets on it's direction.  Yields started the morning lower, but has been testing it's 25 DMA and currently just sits below it (just under) 0.70%.

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Daily Market Report 6/23/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We had some some improvement in both Manufacturing and Services sectors in the month of June, as the Markit PMI indicated with their indexes.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 39.8 in May to 49.6 in June; and the Markit Services PMI rose from 37.5 in May to 46.7 in June.  However, a 50 or greater is considered growth or optimism for these indexes.  We also received data on New Home Sales, which rose from 580k annualized units in April to 676k in May.  Stocks like the data are currently Up this morning.  Before the Markets opened, they (futures) were trading in a Mixed pattern, as Peter Navarro was interviewed on Fox News on Monday evening, and made confusing statements about the Phase One deal with China being over.  However, later, President Trump tweeted that the deal with China is not over, and continuing on.  This appeased the investors for this mornings trades.  MBS is currently Unchanged from yesterday's closed (which closed -9bps) and just atop it's 50 DMA.  The movement is not enough to change Mortgage Rates.  Yields started the day higher (just above it's 25 DMA), but has come down a bit (0.73%) and settling in at the level just above it's 50 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 6/22/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales dropped from 4.33 million annualized units to 3.91 million units in May.  The forecast had it at 3.80 million.  NAR stated that they feel this was the bottom, as they faced lockdowns from the pandemic, and lower inventory levels.  Stocks are higher on the day and in Positive Territory, as they're led by Tech industry.  Investors still have one eye on the rise of Coronavirus cases being announced globally and any impact it may present.  Meanwhile, MBS started the day higher, but has since dropped below it's 25 DMA and is Down 6bps currently.  This is not enough movement to create any price changes for Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged.  Yields are down from it's opening and sitting on a level just above it's 50 DMA and at 0.70%.

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Daily Market Report 6/19/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Sorry for the audio in today's recording.  I am currently experiencing technical issues with my video program, so I utilized the video recording embedded in PowerPoint.  I hope to have this rectified for Monday's video.  Back to the video: There are no data to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are currently in Positive Territory, but off from initial highs, which came from a report by Bloomberg on China ramping up purchases on US Agricultural products to meet the Phase 1 objectives, as they were delayed to the pandemic complications.  There are a few Fed Members speaking today, so the Markets will be listening.  MBS is Down 9bps this morning, off from earlier lows that the 50 DMA held, and back below the 25 DMA.  Mortgage Rates should be relatively similar to yesterday's pricing, so I'd say Unchanged.  Yields are off from earlier highs and now sitting at approximately 0.71%.

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Daily Market Report 6/18/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims was a bit disappointing today, as last week's report was revised slightly higher to 1.57 million people apply for first time benefits, as it dipped to 1.51 million in this week's report.  It was widely expected to see it drop to 1.31 million.  It is trending in the "right" direction; however, it just didn't go fast enough.  On the other hand, Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region surprise everyone with a fairly hot number.  It went from -43.1 to +27.5.  It was expected to be -20.0.  Also, good news with the Leading Economic Indicators, as it went from -6.1% in April to 2.8% in May.  Mixed data today!  Stocks started in the Red this morning, but has since improved.  The DOW is now the only index tip-toeing back and forth between Positive/Negative Territories.  This uncertainty in the Market has been very clear this week, as investors try to get a grip on economic activity and coronavirus news.  There's been an uptick with new cases reported in China and a few US states, so the fear of a 2nd wave is real!  There will be a few Fed Speakers today, so investors will pay attention closely on their thoughts.  MBS is currently Up 6bps and pushing up on it's 25 DMA.  Currently, there's no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates, but it's trending toward more positive position, if this keeps up.  Yields have fallen below it's 25 DMA and sitting at 0.70% and having less pressure on MBS.

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Daily Market Report 6/17/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts had a slight uptick in May (from 934k to 974k), but didn't meet forecasts of 1.13 million annualized units.  However, Building Permits was a bit better in May, as it improved from 1.07 million to 1.22 million (nearly meeting it's forecasts of 1.25 million).  Stocks have been improving daily, but settling off their highs.  Today, they're in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is lone index, slightly in the Red.  Fed Chair Powell is in his second day of testimony, bu this time with the House.  We saw a lot of fluctuations in the Markets, as he was speaking today.  Investors are trying to be bullish and hope for a V recovery, which they're clinging to a great Retail Sales number recently, new coronavirus drugs and economies reopening; however, they have another eye on more outbreaks of coronavirus in China and numbers rise in several places in the US.  This uncertainty can only go so far with the Markets, and possibly sour, as they realize that it's going to take time for a recovery (longer than what they're hoping).  MBS is showing this on their charts too, as they're currently Down 5bps and still sitting between it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates remain same as yesterday.  Yields are down a bit, and are sitting just above a level of support (just below 0.75%).

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Daily Market Report 6/16/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales came in much hotter than expected, as it improved by 17.7% in May; and it jumped up 12.4% when you exclude Autos.  Industrial Production improved by 1.4% in May, which was a little under expectations of 2.8%.  Capacity Utilization, also, slightly rose up to 64.8%, which was below the 66.8% expectations.  The NAHB Home Builders Index rose 21 points to 58, which measures the confidence of Home Builders.  Business Inventories dropped 1.3% in April.  Stocks started Up quite high this morning, which continued a trend in yesterday's stock turn-around (approximately by 800 points in the DOW).  Yesterday's turn-about was based on the Fed's expansion in Corporate Bond purchases in the Secondary Market.  Today, Stocks started higher based on the Retail Sales and Home Builders Index; but also good news on Dexamethasone, which may be helpful for those whom have been infected with the coronavirus, as a means to lowering the death rate.  Stocks and MBS are really swinging in varying directions currently, while the Fed Chair has been testifying before the Senate Committee.  Currently, MBS is Down 9bps and is now sitting between the 25- and 50 DMA.  I'd say that Mortgage Lenders will price their Mortgage Rates a little worse today, in order to cover themselves with this volatility.  If it closes at the -9bps level, then it may benefit us going forward, which we've seen trends reverse (see the video and it's graph for clarification).  Yields have been wild too!  They closed yesterday way down, at 0.65%, and below it's 25- and 50 DMA; however, this morning, it jumped up 10 points to 0.75%, and above it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 6/15/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region is showing some improvement in June, as the Empire State Index reported a -0.2 (after a -48.5 in May).  Anything below 0 is considering contraction.  Stocks are Down this morning over concerns of a new wave of coronavirus, as many states have been reporting a bit of a spike.  Also, China has reported a spike in their testing and have begun to cancel many events, and closed the largest Market due to findings of it being a source for the infections.  Another concern for investors is the recent economic data from China that was recently released that indicates that the economy won't rebound as fast as they'd like.  MBS started the morning on a great note, but has since fallen a bit into negative territory, as it's currently Down.  This may lead east coast lenders to reprice for the worse, as MBS was up much higher; whereas, the west coast will be just releasing their rates, which will reflect any reprices and should look pretty close to Friday's numbers.  Yields are trying to stay above it's 25 DMA, as it's sitting just below 0.69%.

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Daily Market Report 6/12/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Sentiment rose in June, going from May's 72.3 to 78.9 in June.  Stocks are trying to make up some of the losses from yesterday, as they are all trading in Positive Territory.  They're reflecting on higher reported cases of covid-19 in some states, which raises concerns of a 2nd Wave; comments from the Fed earlier this week; and recent comments by the IMF, whom mentioned that the global economy will be scarred from this, and it will take take to heal.  MBS is currently Down about 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting between it's 25- and 50 DMA, as it's around 0.68%.

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Daily Market Report 6/11/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims are still trending lower with people applying for first time benefits, as it dropped from 1.90 million in last week's report to 1.54 million this week.  Wholesale inflation improved a bit in May, as the Producer Price Index rose 0.4% in May, after it dropped 1.3% in April.  It's YoY improved from -1.2% to -0.8%.  The Core PPI (excluding food & energy), dropped 0.1% in May; and it's YoY dropped from 0.6% in April to 0.3% in May.  Stocks are WAY Down this morning, as the DOW was down by as much as around 1400 points.  The comments by the Fed yesterday made them realize the economy isn't going to rebound as quickly as they thought, as the Fed said that rates will remain low for awhile, and they will continue their MBS purchases.  They also forecasted a negative GDP this year with it improving next (not enough to make up for 2020); and High Unemployment which will slowly trend lower.  They're projecting approximately 10% for Rate of Unemployment this year.  Also, there is some concern of a 2nd wave of the coronavirus, as we hit the 2 million mark and 120k in deaths for the US.  MBS rallied yesterday (closed +41bps) and above it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Currently, it's off its earlier high, but still Up 13bps.  Mortgage Rates improved again today.  On the note of rates being low for quite awhile from the Fed, Yields plummeted down to it's 50 DMA and sits just under 0.68%.

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Daily Market Report 6/10/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.1% in May, while it's YoY dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%.  The Core CPI (excluding food & energy) also dropped 0.1% in May, and it's YoY dropped from 1.4% to 1.2%.  The big discrepancy in the YoY between the Headline data and it's Core is due to the drop in Energy (Oil) prices.  Now that the economy is reopening, it's alleviating some concerns of the possibility of deflation.  The Fed will wrap up it's FOMC today and give their announcement around 11:30am PST.  Investors will listen for any comments about last week's Jobs data and any changes or plans with the current actions (like their daily purchase of MBS, which has helped to stabilize the Mortgage Rates).  Meanwhile, MBS had their Bond Rollover yesterday, which was about -22bps.  This has no effect on pricing.  It's basically a reset to the next month's pricing; as this occurs every month, and why we have 30 day locks/pricing.  Currently, MBS is Up 9bps, which will put them in comparable territory, as yesterday's pricing; so, Mortgage Rates remain the Unchanged.  The MBS did pull back a bit in the afternoon yesterday due to a poor Treasury Auction, and closed only +9bps (vs. +23bps earlier in the day).  Yields continue to decline, as it's stochastic chart shows a negative cross-over, which indicates a trend reversal.  They currently sit just under 0.78% so far this morning.

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Daily Market Report 6/9/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Confidence with Small Business owners grew in May, as the NFIB Small Business Index showed that it went from 90.9 in April to 94.4 in May.  Today is the start of the Fed's 2 day FOMC, which they'll provide their statement tomorrow.  No expectations of any changes in rates; however, investors want to hear the Fed's response to last week's Job data.  MBS is Up again this morning, and breaking above it's 50 DMA (as it broke above it's 25 DMA yesterday) and is Up 20bps.  Mortgage Rates improved again!  Yields have slide down to just under 0.82%, as they resist pressure on MBS; and sit in the mid-range between it's 100 DMA and 50 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 6/8/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no Economic Data to report today.  Stocks are Up this morning.  Investors are still feeling a bit enthusiastic about Friday's Jobs data, and what will be the Fed's response to it when they convene for their FOMC this week, beginning tomorrow with their announcement on Wednesday.  MBS is Up 25bps this morning and challending it's 25 DMA. Mortgage Rates improved a bit this morning.  Yields have slid down to 0.86%, having less pressure on MBS.

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Daily Market Report 6/5/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Jobs are THE NEWS today!  The Bureau of Labor reports that 2.5 million jobs were created in May, as most economists forecasted a loss of 7.25 million.  The April number was revised a bit higher, going from 20.5 million in losses to 20.7 million i losses.  Also, the Unemployment Rate dropped from 14.7% to 13.3%, as most economists expected it to rise to 19.0%.  The Average Hourly Earnings dropped 1.0% in May, which may have been a result in 0.5 hour increase to the Average Weekly Hours worked.  Stocks are well into Positive Territory on the Jobs data, as the DOW topped 800 this morning.  There's optimism for a quick recovery.  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Down 17bps, and off from earlier lows (down 27bps).  As expected from the news, Mortgage Rates have worsened a bit today.  We are in a territory now that they can continue to worsen a bit more, as there is nearly 1.5 points spread between the 25 DMA (now ceiling) and 100 DMA (it's floor).  Yields are approaching it's 100 DMA and adding more pressure on MBS, as it's now up to 0.93%.

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Daily Market Report 6/4/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims came in a little higher than forecast, but still on the lowering weekly trend at 1.88 million people applying for first time benefits.  Productivity released it's final Q1 report, which dropped by 0.9%, which was better than it's initial at -2.5%.  However, Unit Labor Costs rose from it's initial of 4.8% to 5.1% for it's final Q1 numbers.  Stocks are taking a bit of a breather this morning, after a long rising run for the week, and just before tomorrow's Jobs data.  The ECB announced they'll increase their Bond Buying Program and extended it's time frame too.  MBS is currently Down 17bps, so Mortgage Rates worsened a bit today.  Yesterday, it closed at it's 50 DMA; but today, it started below it, which has a lot of room beneath it for rates to continue to rise.  It may be prudent, if you have any short-term look with your transaction to lock in your rate, as investors are looking for any reason to pour more funds into the stock market.  Yields have the inverse, as they're above it's 50 DMA and have plenty of room to add more pressure to MBS.  It's currently sitting at 0.81%

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Daily Market Report 6/3/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP Employment Report had a positive revision in it's April numbers by approximately 600k, and it's May's numbers came in at a loss of 2.760 million; however, forecasts had it at a loss of 8.663 million.  Markit Services PMI improved their reports to 37.0 in May; also, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index improved to 45.4.  So, we're seeing some improvement in our Services sector in May, as we saw some improvement in Manufacturing yesterday.  Factory Orders dropped by 13% in April.  Investors are still in a Euphoric mood, as stocks continue at this torrid pace, which flamed a bit higher after seeing the ADP Employment Report.  At some point, they'll need to take their heads out of the clouds and realize that the economy has a ways to go after the pandemic, and now the domestic violence; and to top it off, the increasing tensions with China.  MBS broke below it's double floor of support (25- and 50 DMA) and is Down 17bps this morning.  The Fed is expected to buy about $4.5 Billion in MBS today, so we'll see if we can get back above that floor.  Mortgage Rates were priced a bit worse this morning.  Yields are adding the pressure to MBS, as it broke above it's 50 DMA and is sitting at 0.75%.

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Daily Market Report 6/2/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Quiet news day today, as there are no data to report on the Economic Calendar; and the Headline news is based on Investors Optimism of the reopening, while shrugging off the domestic violence and rising tensions with China.  Stocks are currently in Mixed Territory, as the NASDAQ is the lone index in the Red this morning.  Yesterday, MBS broke above it's 25 DMA and closed Up 9bps.  Today, it's testing it's floor (25 DMA) and is Down 6bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  If we can remain above these 2 lines (25 DMA and 50 DMA), then we will see some improving Mortgage Rates.  Yields had closed below it's 25 DMA yesterday; however, this morning is above it and pressing against it's 50 DMA.  It's currently at 0.68%.

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Daily Market Report 6/1/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few manufacturing reports today, which the first is Markit Manufacturing PMI remained Unchanged at 39.8 in May; and it's counter-part, the ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 41.5% to 43.1% in May.  Below 50 on these indexes mean contraction.  Construction Spending dropped 2.9% in April, which was lower than the 6.8% drop forecasted.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning on the ISM data.  China reported positive manufacturing data on their Caixin index, which showed it just above 50 (expanding territory).  Tensions are growing between the 2, as US is removing Special Status on Hong Kong; and China is pulling back on their purchases of US' Agriculture.  Protests around the US raises more concerns, including a 2nd wave of covid-19.  MBS is Unchanged from Friday's close, and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as well.  The 25 DMA and 50 DMA are nearly crossing, which is about to force the MBS to move in either direction (higher or lower).  If it rises, then we will see improvements in Mortgage Rates; and the opposite will happen, if it drops.  Yields are facing similar pattern, as it sits just below it's 50 DMA at 0.68%.

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