Daily Market Report 9/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the Chicago region contracted, per the Chicago PMI, in September.  It dropped from 50.4 to 47.1.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as an announcement by the Treasury eased concerns, that were raised by a report on Bloomberg, that the Trump Administration is looking to limit the amount of Chinese companies wanting to list themselves on the US Exchanges.  The Treasury denied any plans of this nature.  MBS is currently fighting it's way above a double layer of resistance of the 25- and 50 DMA, and is currently Up 5bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  This could change, as we appear to be facing a Breakout that could push MBS in one directin or another.  Treasuries are Up 1bps, and sit at 1.68% while it's approaching it's 25 DMA.

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Daily Market Report 9/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of data on the Economic Calendar today, so we'll start with the Durable Goods Orders for August, which rose 0.2% (higher than forecast of -0.7%); and if you remove Transportation, then it rose 0.5%.  Personal Income rose 0.4% in August, while Consumer Spending rose only 0.1%.  The PCE remain unchanged MoM in Aug., and YoY at 1.4%; however, the Core PCE rose 0.1% MoM and it's YoY rose from 1.7% (revised higher from 1.6%) to 1.8% -drawing closer to Fed's goal of 2.0% Target Rate.  Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 93.2 after a brief dip to 92.0 in September.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Investors watch more developing news on US/China Trade and Impeachment Inquiry.  China has indicated they will purchase more US Goods, and they set a date of Oct. 10-11 in DC for their next rounds of negotiations with the higher levels.  There is some concern that President Trump won't extend the timeframe for US businesses to deal with China's Huawei, which may lead to more tensions between the 2 nations.  The Impeachment inquiry has moved toward the backburner, as we've been through these types of obstacles and nothing seems imminent.  A few Fed Speakers will be out speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 5bps and moving sideways, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have climbed Up slightly to 1.70%.

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Daily Market Report 9/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from last week's report to 213k.  However, last week's report was revised higher by 2k (from 208k to 210k).  Last week's report is important because it will be used as part of the BLS' Jobs report due October 4th.  This low number should help to show a strong Jobs report for September.  Also, the GDP provided it's final revision for Q2, which remained the same at 2.0%.  Pending Home Sales jumped up 1.6% in August, which we saw an uptick in purchases out west.  The lower interest rates are helping home buyers, as it improves their Affordability.  Stocks are Down this morning, as the Impeachment Talk takes center stage.  Yesterday, it was placed on the back burner, as investors became more optimistic over a possible US/China Trade Deal to be completed soon.  Like yesterday, there will be several Fed Members speaking throughout the day.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but Mortgage Rates will be the same as we closed yesterday.  Yesterday, we closed down 33bps.  Lenders whom didn't re-price for the worst, then will price it in today.  Yields are down a bit, as they currently sit slightly under 1.69%.

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Daily Market Report 9/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales jumped up from 666k in July to 713k in August.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Congress has announced an Inquiry into an Impeachment process.  This gave rise to Yields, thus affecting Bonds, which we'll see in a little bit.  Aso, Investors are still uncertain over the US and China Trade Negotiations, even though China has placed more orders for Soy and Pork with the US.  Later today, several Fed Members will be speaking, which could potentially lead to some volatility in the Markets.  MBS is currently down 11bps, but it's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged.  It's currently sitting just atop it's floor at the 50 DMA.  Yields have risen a bit to 1.67% on the Impeachment Inquiry news, which is what's adding pressure to the MBS this morning.

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Daily Market Report 9/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index remained Unchanged at 3.2% in July, as June's data was revised a little higher.  Consumer Confidence dropped a bit in September, from 134.2 to 125.1, due to the tensions that erupted between the US and China Trade Negotiations.  Stocks are Up this morning, as reports indicate that the talks between US and China continue to progress.  It was reported that the Top UK Court ruled that PM Johnson violated law last month on his suspension of Parliament as a tactic for Brexit.  The British Pound rose against the US dollar.  Also, reports out of Saudi Arabia that progress is being made on their recovery from the drone strikes and back to oil production.  MBS is Up 11bps, however, yesterday it closed -5bps, even though it was in Positive Territory for most of day.  We're around same levels as yesterday morning (between 25- and 50-DMA), so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields had similar reaction yesterday and are back to 1.67%.  Both are heading toward a possible Breakout, which that Trend appears to favor Bonds.  The concern lies iwth Friday's report of the PCE, which could have an adverse effect on MBS, if it comes in a bit hot.

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Daily Market Report 9/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have data from Markit PMI flash for the month of September.  The manufaturing data rose to 51.0; while the services data rose to 50.9.  However, the Eurozone reported some pretty ugly numbers in manufacturing, which is partly why Stocks are currently in the Red this morning.  The Chinese are reporting that the cancellation of the farm visits in Montana have no bearing on the negotiations and were downplaying it's meaning.  This is helping to ease the Markets some, as it turned a bit ugly on Friday after the announcement.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage rates are better today.  They broke above it's 50 DMA on Friday and continue to rise, and will face resistance at the 25 DMA.  The Yields are down to 1.67%, and approaching it's floor at the 25 DMA.  It broke below it's double floor (50 DMA and Fibonacci) on Friday and continuing it's downward trend.  There is caution this week, as the PCE report is due Friday.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  The CPI last reported at a 11 year high.  If PCE comes in a bit hot on Friday, then MBS may lose much of it's gains, as inflation is the worst enemy to Bonds/MBS.  Be cautious this week!

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Daily Market Report 9/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We don't have any data to report from the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up again today and approaching new highs again.  Tensions between US and China appear to be easing, as they're currently meeting to prepare for the bigger meeting in October.  A few members of the Fed spoke today, after the FOMC which the Dissenters relayed their reasons for the dissension.  Today, it's Quadruple Witching Day on Wall Street, so we may see some re-balancing in stocks, which may or may not help Bonds.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but it's not quite enough to improve Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged again today.  Yields are trying to remain above it's double floor of support, which it's just below it, at 1.77%.

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Daily Market Report 9/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims beat forecasts and rose only 2k, to 208k.  The Philly Fed dropped from 16.8 to 12.0 in Sept., but still beat it's projection at 10.0.  This measures the manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  Existing Home Sales rose in August from 5.42 million annualized units to 5.49 million, which forecasts were calling for a drop to 5.39 million.  Leading Indicators were flat in August.  Stocks are Up this morning after the FOMC announcment, and they liked today's data.  MBS is Up 6bps, but it's not enough to change Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting just above a double layer of support at the 2.79%.

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Daily Market Report 9/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Both Housing Starts and Permits had a very nice spike in August, which coincides with yesterday's NAHB Home Builder Index.  Housing Starts jumped Up from 1.215 million annualized units to 1.364 million.  Permits leaped from 1.317 million annualized units to 1.419 million.  Around 11am PST, the Fed will release their statement, which we expect a 0.25% Rate Cut.  Stocks are Down ahead of the Fed's Decision.  Also, the Fed had to intervene with the Markets yesterday because there seems to have been a bit of a Liquidity issue.  MBS improved as the day went on yesterday, and is Up 17bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Better so far.  If there is any concern over Inflation, then this could spook the Markets, and we'll see a pullback in the the Bond Market (negatively affecting Mortage Rates).  Yields have slid down to 1.75% now.

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Daily Market Report 9/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production rose 0.6% in August; and Capacity Utilization rose from 77.5% to 77.9%.  Last, but not least, the Home Builder's Index rose from 66 to 68 in September.  This index measures the confidence level of Home Builders.  The Sentiment from the Attacks on Saudi Oil Processing Plants are lingering into today's trading.  Stocks started in the Red, but have eased up a bit, and now are Mixed.  We saw the biggest spike since September 2008 in Oil prices yesterday, so Investors are watching this carefully.  This could lead into talk of Inflation, which is the enemy of MBS/Bonds, as it erodes it's value over time.  The FOMC begin their 2 day meeting today, which they're expected a 0.25% Rate Cut.  If there's any mention of concern over inflation, then we could see an adverse effect with MBS and Mortgage Rates.  MBS are currently Up 2bps.  So, no change in Mortgage Rates from yesterday's pricing today.  Yields are slid a bit to 1.83%.  The Good News is the Stochastic Chart seems to reflect a reversal in the trend of both MBS and Yields, so we may reclaim some of the lost pricing and improvement with Mortgage Rates in the near term.

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Daily Market Report 9/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Empire State Index, which measures Manufacturing data in the NY region, dropped from 4.8 in August to 2.0 in September.  Manufacturing has been suffering a bit of late, and it's something that we're watching, as more and more talk about recession becomes more apparent.  The drone attack on Saudi Oil Processing Center has dropped the Stock Market into Negative Territory, as the money has flown to safety by investing into Bonds/MBS, which MBS is Up 25bps.  Yields have come down to 1.85%.

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Daily Market Report 9/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales jumped Up 0.4% in August; however, if you remove Autos from that data, then it was completely flat.  Consumer Sentiment Index shows that Consumers are feeling better in September, as it rises from 89.8 to 92.0.  Also, Business Inventories rose 0.4% in July.  Stocks are modestly trading in Positive Territory, as it's trading at it's highs.  The sentiment is calm after "good will" gestures between US and China prior to their upcoming October meeting; and an accomodating attitude amongst the Central Banks to stimulate the economy.  Meanwhile, money is flowing out of MBS/Bonds and into Stocks/Equities; so, Mortgage Rates continue to rise this week, as MBS is down 36bps this morning.  Yields are climbing, and now sits around 1.86%.  Both have broken past their next levels of support/resistance.

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Daily Market Report 9/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims came in strong last week, which only 204k people applied for first time benefits.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.1% in August, which it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  However, it's Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, and it's YoY rose from 2.2% to 2.4%.  Stocks are in Positive Territory on news that the US will delay Tariffs on $250 Billion Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th as a gesture of good will.  Also, the ECB announced further rate cuts, which they reduced their depository rates by 10bps, so they went from -0.4% to -0.5%.  They also announced that they will start buying Government Bonds in November in blocks of $20 Billion Euros until they deem necessary.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning much higher, but has since fizzled and is currently Up only 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain the same.  Yields faced the same type of volatility, as they currently sit at 1.75%.  Both lines held yesterday and are starting to be challenged again this morning.

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Daily Market Report 9/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Producer Price Index, which gauges inflation with Wholesalers, rose  0.1% in August, and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  When you strip out Food and Energy, then you have the PPI, which rose 0.3% in August, and it's YoY rose from 2.1% to 2.3%.  Wholesale Inventories jumped Up 0.2% in July.  Stocks are Up this morning, as it's a relatively quiet news day; however, many Investors are reviewing their trading patterns and reviewing stocks that have been unpopular and re-evaluating the popular ones.  MBS is Up 6bps, but it's Unchanged from it's pricing from yesterday's close, which we had a few price changes for the worst throughout the day, as the MBS/Bonds keep sliding down.  Meanwhile, Yields keep rising and is currently sitting at 1.73%.

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Daily Market Report 9/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index dropped a little bit in August, going from 104.7 to 103.1.  This is the lowest level since March, which is when things between US and China got a little bit chippy.  It got a little chippy last month too, which may be the reason for this number.  Job Openings remained the same in July at 7.2 million.  Stocks are Down this morning, as Investors look to ECB's upcoming meeting on Thursday.  There was some pushback from some ECB Officials regarding the (maybe) too high expectations of possible rate cuts and re-starting the Bond Buying Program again.  MBS is down 9bps now.  It dropped further later in the day and closed -30bps, so Lenders will have Higher Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are still climbing, and currently at 1.67%.

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Daily Market Report 9/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Quiet day on the Economic Calendar, and for the most part on the News day too.  Investors will be looking ahead to the ECB announcment later this week, and the FOMC next week, as the Fed Officials go into a Quiet Period before the FOMC.  It is expected that the ECB will cut rates again, further into Negative Territory, and possibly re-starting the Bond Purchase Program.  The Fed is expected to cut a .25% rate next week.  We have inflation news this week, via the CPI, so it could have an impact on how the Markets responds to any Fed decision.  Currently, Stocks are in Positive Territory.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 16bps and trying to stay above it's next floor of support, which happens to be the 25 DMA.  Yields have skyrocketed further above a double layer ceiling and sitting around 1.62%.  We'll see if this continues, or if it gets pulled back under.

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Daily Market Report 9/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the Big Day for the Jobs Data!  The Non-Farm Payroll, report given by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), rose only 130k new jobs in August.  The Unemployment Rate remained the same, at 3.7%.  The Average Hourly Earnings exceeded forecasts and rose 0.4% in August.  All in All the Jobs report was ok, even though the headline number disappointed.  We're seeing a trend in the Private Sector of New Jobs created are shrinking.  However, we did just saw an uptick in Labor Participation, which was the highest level in about 6 years; and this month's number of new labor coming into the labor force almost matched the amount of new jobs created, which is the reason the Unemployment Rate remained the same.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning.  Fed Chief Powell is speaking in Switzerland later today, which will be his last appearance until the FOMC.  Investors will listen intently for any clues to September's meeting and Rate Cut talk.  MBS is Up about 6bps.  The pricing is the same as yesterday's close, but it may show some improvement for some Lenders whom may not have improved their pricing after the pullback in MBS from their earlier lows.  Yields spiked all the way up to 1.56% and is currently sitting at the same level.

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Daily Market Report 9/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Report came in strong with 195k new Jobs in the Private Sector.  Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 217k. Q2 Productivity dropped from 3.1% in Q1 to 2.3% in Q2.  Also, Unit Labor Costs rose 2.6% in Q2.  Markit Services PMI dropped from 50.9 in July to 50.7 in August; however, the more closely watched, ISM Non-Manfacturing Index, rose from 53.7% to 56.4%.  Lastly, Factory Orders increased by 1.4% in July.  Stocks are way up this morning on the bullish data and announcement that the US and China will sit down again on October 4th in DC to work on the Trade Negotiations.  Even though, it's nothing new, Investors REALLY like the Optimism!  MBS is way down this morning, -41bps, which has led to worse pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have really spiked, up to 1.59%.  If you're floating in a transaction, then you may want to lock in, as we may see this pattern for a little bit.  Long-term, I see rates coming down, but we will have our ebbs and flows in both directions (like a yo-yo).

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Daily Market Report 9/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we just have the Fed's Beige Book on the Economic Calendar, which will be released around 11am PST.  This will provide a Micro Economic view around the US.  Stocks are Up this morning on positive Geo-Political news.  China is easing on some of the restrictions on Hong Kong in hopes to diffuse the tensions with the Protesters.  Also, the Peoples Bank of China announced steps for more stimulus.  The UK Parliament blocked PM Boris Johnson's proposal to leave the EU without any trade deal.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so coupled with yesterday's late gains, then Lenders will price better with Mortgage Rates.  Yields are fighting to get back above the Fibonacci level and is currently sitting just below it at 1.47%.

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Daily Market Report 9/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ISM Manufacturing contracted in August to it's lowest level (49.1%) in approximately 3 years.  Construction Spending slighly rebounded in July by rising 0.1%.  Investors are a bit uneasy with the Manufacturing data today, along with the Tariffs that were implemented on Sunday (by the US and China, alike).  Stocks are down quite a bit on this uneasy feeling.  MBS seem to be gaining some more steam and may have found it's catalyst after moving sideways for the past month by breaking above it's Ceiling of Resistance is currently Up 9bps.  Earlier, it did test the former Ceiling, which will become it's Floor of Support on the Candles Chart.  I'd say that Mortgage Rates are currently the same as Fridays, but this may change if the Candles continue to rise (better pricing).  Yields have dropped below it's Floor of Support and are approaching it's lowest level ever.  It's currently sitting at 1.45%.

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