Daily Market Report 5/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of Economic data to go over this morning from the Calendar.  We'll start off with Personal Income, which rose 0.5% in April; whereas Consumer Spending rose only 0.3% in April.  Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in April, which it's YoY rose from 1.4% to 1.5%.  The Core PCE (also, known as Core Inflation) rose 0.2% in April, and rose from 1.5% to 1.6% YoY.  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  It removes variables, food and energy, from the PCE, and provides a controlled number.  Manufacturing in Chicago region improved, as the Chicago PMI rose from 52.6 to 54.2 in May.  This was important, as we saw Manufacturing in Philadelphia and NY come to border of contraction.  Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from it's initial May reading of 102.4 to 100.00; however, it's still up from it's April reading of 97.2.  Stocks are in the Red this morning, as President Trump surprised the Markets with Tariffs on imports from Mexico.  This is in an effort to gain more support from the Mexican Gov't to address the illegal border crossing.  If it persists, then the US will continue raising Tariffs by 5% each subsequent month until it's at 25%.  As for China, there are reports that they are planning to releasing another retaliatory measure against the US, especially with their treatment toward Huawei and a few other Chinese companies, whom have been placed on the Entities list (essentially have been blacklisted).  It was reported that Manufacturing dropped again in China.  Mortgage Rates improved today, as the MBS is Up 9bps this morning; so, coupled with yesterday's higher number and today's, Lenders will show some improvement.  Yields continued to drop, as it's now down to 2.17%.  This is going to concern investors, as this will deepen the Inverted Yield Curve, which is a precursor sign toward a recession.

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Daily Market Report 5/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose from 212k (this was revised slightly higher from 211k) to 215k (same as forecast).  Still very low amount of people filing for Unemployment.  Q1 GDP was revised slightly downward, from 3.2% to 3.1%.  Many economists were forecasting it to drop to 3.0%.  So far, it's been a great start to 2019.  We've had very poor Q1 in the past, as bad weather contributed to the past low numbers. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the rhetoric between the US and China's trade negotiations seemed to have subsided a bit for a day.  Investors were also concerned about the Inverted Curve deepening, as the Yields have been taking a bit of a beating since the China/US talks have broken off.  MBS is flat so far this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged.  Yields did climb back a bit from yesterday's low of 2.22% to 2.27%.

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Daily Market Report 5/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing scheduled for the Economic Calendar today, but tomorrow will be much busier.  The Stock Market is in Negative Territory this morning on more news on the escalating tensions between US and China.  China is now reporting that they may restrict exports to the US on Rare Earth Minerals that are used for Micro Chips, Mobile Phones and other every day electronics.  This coupled with the data supporting a possible global economic slowdown, unresolved Brexit and tensions between the EC and Italy have Investors concerned.  MBS is Up 5bps, so it's not enough for any change to develop with pricing on Mortgage Rates.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  However, Yields have continued to slide and are now at 2.22%.

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Daily Market Report 5/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Case Shiller Home Price Index indicates that home prices continue to slow down, having a 3.9% annualized growth in February to 3.7% in March.  Consumer Confidence Index represents the overall satisfaction by the Consumer with the standing of the US Economy, as it continues to rise from 129.2 to 134.2 in May.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as they still watch for any news on China/US Trade discussion, and prepare for a long, drawn out Trade War developing.  There was an announcement of a Merger between Fiat Chrysler and Renault that would make them the 3rd largest Auto producer by production.  President Trump met with Japan's PM Shinzo over the weekend.  Also, Investors are concerned over Italy, as the anit-Euro sentiment continues to win more elections there.  MBS is Up only 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from last Friday.  Yields continue to slide, and have reached 2.29%.

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Daily Market Report 5/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders dropped 2.1% in April, and it's March's number was revised lower, from 2.6% to 1.7%.  The big drop was led by lack of Boeing orders (this is after the grounding of their 737 airplanes).  If you remove the Transportation, the Durable Goods would be flat.  The Core Capital Goods Orders dropped 0.9% in April, as the index reflects Business Investment.  This is the first drop in 4 months.  Stocks are trading Up this morning on cautious optimism based on a comment by President Trump that he may allow the standing of Huawei to be negotiated into a larger Trade pact with China.  Also, the PM Theresa May of the UK has announced that she will resign from her post in June, as she's had several failed attempts to garner the support on the terms of the UK's divorce from the EC.  They have until October 31st to come to terms.  MBS is down 3bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates.  Yields remain at 2.33%.

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Daily Market Report 5/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 212k from previous week to 211k last week; another good sign for Jobs.  However, we show Manufacturing and Services Industry slowing down.  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped from 52.6 in April to 50.6 in May; and Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 in April to 50.9 in May.  Both indexes are showing that both industries are on the verge of contracting (anything above 50 on these indices is expansion, and below is contraction).  Also, New Home Sales dropped in April.  They went from 723k annualized units in March to 673k in April.  Stocks are trading way Down today, as Investors are realizing the tensions between US and China are only escalating and both sides seem to be digging in for the long-haul.  Catch the video for more info, but this tension is becoming more Global, as more companies in other countries sever ties with Huawei in order to comply with US regulations.  Also, Markit Manufacturing out of Europe contracted further, as they're forced to cut staff (first since 2014).  MBS is Up 9bps, so coupled with yesterday's improved movement, Mortgage Rates have improved some today.  Meanwhile, Yields have dropped all the way down to 2.33%.

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Daily Market Report 5/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only item on the Economic Calendar today is the FOMC Minutes, which will be released at 11:15am PST.  Investors are eager to review the Minutes of the Feds' last meeting and look for clues on their thoughts on the economy, rate movement and US/China.  Stocks are Down, as they await the FOMC Minutes.  Also, both China and US appear to be readying themselves to dig in for the long haul, as tensions continue to escalate between the two.  MBS is UP 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.40%.

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Daily Market Report 5/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Homes Sales slumped a bit in April, as they go from 5.21 million annualized units to 5.19 million.  Stocks are cautiously trading in Positive Territory, as the US placed a Temporary (90 days) Exception on US Businesses dealings with Huawei.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, which Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have crept up to 2.42% now.

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Daily Market Report 5/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are being driven by the continued tensions between the US and China, as both parties agree they won't be meeting any time soon, as neither side is willing to negotiate further.  Also, US Companies are preparing to holdback on any business relationships with Hauwei, as they will be limited on what they may sell to them.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory.  MBS is down 2bps, but it's not enough to change pricing on Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.39%.

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Daily Market Report 5/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment jumped up from 97.2 in April to 102.4 in May.  Leading Indicators are Up 0.2% in April.  Stocks are down on concerns that China won't come back to the negotiations based on all the previous events.  MBS is currently down 3bps, but it's not enough to have any movement with the Mortgage Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday.  Yields have come down to 2.40%.

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Daily Market Report 5/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims improved last week, as only 212k applied for benefits (vs. 228k the previous week).  Housing Starts improved in April, as they rose from 1.168 million annualized units in March to 1.235 million in April.  Also, Building Permits, which are future Housing Starts, rose from 1.288 million in March to 1.296 million annualized units in April.  Manufacturing had a nice uptick in Philadelphia, as it did in NY area earlier this week, as it's Philly Fed Index indicated that it jumped up from 8.5 to 16.6 in May.  Stocks are really liking the Economic Data today, as the DOW up more than 200 so far, as they place the US/China tensions on hold for at least for a moment.  It appears that Huawei may have a more difficult to obtain any of their products from US companies, like their microchips, as the US is planning to add them to a list preventing any US Companies sell them any goods.   MBS is currently down 8bps, which is not enough movement to change pricing, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields rebounded up to 2.41%.

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Daily Market Report 5/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: After a big month in March, Retail Sales declined by 0.2% in April; when you exclude Autos, then it declined by 0.1%.  The Empire State Index reported an improvement in Manufacturing in the NY region, as it went from 10.1 in April to 17.8 in May.  Industrial Production dropped 0.5% in April, which Capacity Utilization dropped from 78.5% to 77.9% in April.  Business Inventories remained still (0.0%) in March.  The NAHB Home Builders Index reports that Home Builders are more confident in May, as the index jumped from 63 to 66.  Stocks started the morning in Negative Territory, but has since moved into Positive Territory.  The negative number in Retail Sales, coupled with the Uncertainty with the US/China Negotiations, soured Investors earlier on.  Also, theres were a few poor economic data being reported out of China today too.  MBS is Up 9bps, so Mortgage Rates will Improved based on today's movement and yesterday's positive movement.  Yields have slid down to 3.37%.

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Daily Market Report 5/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NFIB Small Business Index rose from 101.8 to 103.5 in April, as Small Businesses gain a little more confidence in the economy and overall Market.  Stocks are rebounding a bit today, as yesterday was a sheer sell-off.  There appears to be a softening in the tone between the US and China, so Stocks are trading in Positive territory.  The threats have simmered a bit, and a bit more positive conversation dialogue was being presented.  MBS is Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields remain at 2.41%.

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Daily Market Report 5/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data to report today.  The driving force behind the Markets is a continuation from last week's tension in Trade talks between US and China, which have become more heightened.  After US raised Tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, the Chinese did the same on $60 Billion US goods.  The US is threatening to tariff the remaining $325 Billion Chinese goods, if they continue to retaliate; whereas, China is coming back with other retaliation measures, such as dumping US Treasuries.  Obviously, that could disrupt the Markets tremendously, as China is one of the largest holders of US debt.  Stocks are taking a bloodbath, as the DOW is down more than 500 this morning.  MBS is Up 9bps, so couples with last week's gains, will lead Lenders to better pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slid down to 2.41%.

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Daily Market Report 5/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April, as it's YoY increased from 1.9% to 2.0%.  When you remove the volatile and uncontrolled substance, as Food and Energy, then you have the Core CPI, which rose 0.1%; and it's YoY rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.  As have the week went, Stocks have been reacting on the news on the tensions surrounding the China/US Trade Talks.  The 25% Tariff on $200 Billion of Goods went into effect at 12:01am today.  However, there will be a slight grace period, as the goods in transit will still be under the 10% Tariffs.  It takes approximately 2 weeks for transits to cross the ocean.  Meanwhile, China has promised to retaliate.  President Trump has also brought up adding the 25% Tariffs on the remaining $325 Billion Goods that will typically come across, so it will be 25% across the board.  Negotiations were brief yesterday, so they're hoping to get back on track today.  There's not much movement with MBS, as they're only Up 2bps, so Lenders kept Mortgage Rates Unchanged.  Yields are up to 2.44% now.

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Daily Market Report 5/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We finally have some Economic data to report today.  We'll start with the Weekly Jobless Claims, which 228k people applied for benefits last week.  The previous reporting had 230k, so we'll need to watch this index for continued trend or just a temporary movement.  Inflation in the Whoesale sector rose 0.2% in April, as the Producer Price Index.  Wholesale Inventories dropped 0.1% in March.  Stocks are way down again today, as the saga continues between the US and China on their Trade Negotiations.  This event has been dominating the Investors concerns this whole week.  China has sent their delegation to Washington today.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 9bps this morning.  But yesterday, we closed down 9bps, so this will bring Lenders to keep Mortgage Rates the same as yesterday's pricing.  Also, Yields have slid down to 2.43%.

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Daily Market Report 5/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report from the Ecnonomic Calendar today.  Geo-Political News continue to dictate the Markets.  US and China Trade Negotiations continue it's saga, as it makes Investors very uneasy.  Also, reports have come out of China that Imports increased, but Exports dropped.  Iran announced that they make renege on some of the compliance in the Nuclear deal, as their economy struggles with US sanctions.  MBS is only Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have dropped down to 2.45%.

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Daily Market Report 5/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Another day without any data to report on the Economic Calendar.  Today is more of the same, as the reports on the warnings from President Trump to China was confirmed, as they indicated that Tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese goods can rise from 10% to 25% with a Friday deadline on Negotiations.  There were concerns that China won't send their delegates to the US to continue with the Trade Talks, but was confirmed that they will attend on Thursday.  As a result, Stocks are way Down this morning.  However, they did rebound yesterday a bit from very low downs late in the day.  This confirmation may keep them down today.  MBS is currently Up 8bps this morning.  Due to the Markets improvement yesterday, which led MBS to finish -2bps, the Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged in their pricing today.  Yields have slid a little further down, to 2.47%.

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Daily Market Report 5/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a light week for economic data, which there's none to report today.  So, we're taking our direction today from Geo-Political news.  President Trump tweeted that he will raise the $200 Billion in Goods imported from 10% to 25% by Friday, if a deal is not completed.  These were the same warnings earlier in the year, but the US held off while the talks continued in good faith.  This surprised the Markets, as they felt the completions of negotiations were imminent.  Stocks are deep in the Red this Morning.  MBS is Up 6bps, but not enough for Lenders to change Mortgage Rates from Friday's pricing, so they remained Unchanged.  Yields have rescinded down to 2.49%.

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Daily Market Report 5/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Job Numbers today.  The Nonfarm Payroll exceeded their forecast of 213k to 263k; and the Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.6% (lowest reading since 1969) for the month of April.  The Average Hourly Earnings continued it's trend of rising 0.2%, as it's YoY remained at 3.2%.  Markit Services PMI rose from 52.9 to 53.0 in April; as ISM Nonmanufacturing Index dropped from 56.1% to 55.5% for April.  Stocks are liking the Jobs data and trading in Positive Territory this morning.  MBS is currently Up 9bps.  Some Lenders may be inclined to improve their Mortgage Rate pricing.  The Market has mainly moved sideways, so if they do improve, the it will be very slightly; so, for the most part, Mortgage Rates are Unchanged.  Yields remain in the 2.52% range.

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Daily Market Report 5/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims report that 230k people applying for Unemployment Benefits, same as previous week's number.  Q1 Productivity jumped Up 3.6%, while Q1 Unit Labor Costs dropped by 0.9%.  Factory Orders jumped Up 1.9% in March.  So overall, a very good news from the Economic Calendar.  However, the Stock Market started the morning off in Positive Territory, then shifted into Negative Territory.  Investors didn't care much for the Fed's announcement yesterday, calling Inflation transitory (as it's been under it's 2% target rate) and stating that the next rate movement may not be a rate cut.  Investors were hedging that there will be a 60% chance of a rate hike by end of the year; however, now it shifted to 49.9%.  There are reports that China and US are close to agreement and may announce it's conclusion by next week, as they continue to close the gaps.  MBS is currently down 8bps, so Mortgage Rates continue it's sideways pattern and remain Unchanged.  Yields climbed Up again, back to it's 2.52% range.

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Daily Market Report 5/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP is starting the jobs numbers for this week in the right direction, as they reported 275k new jobs in the private sector.  However, in the Manufacturing sector, we have 2 conflicting reports.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.4 to 52.6 in April; whereas, the ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 55.3% to 52.8% in April.  Construction Spending dropped 0.9% in March.  Later today, around 11:15am PST, the Fed will wrap up their 2 day meeting and provide their announcement.  There is not expected to be any rate movement today.  However, the Investors will be listening for clues on possible rate movement in the future and their forecasts.  Stocks are trading modestly in Positive Territory this morning, ahead of the Fed Announcement.  Corporate Earnings Reports continue to sway the Markets.  MBS is currently Up 5bps, but not quite enough to move Mortgage Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged this morning.  Yield have slide down to 2.48%.

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