Friday, October 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Leading Economic Indicators continue to decline, which it's MoM into September dropped 0.1%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory this morning on bad economic news out of China, which shows their Economy slowing more rapidly than anticipated.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to report decent reports, which pleases the Investors; and various Fed Members continue with their speeches.  MBS has been trending lower and have been pushing against it's floor of support at the 100 DMA, which has been a strong support.  It's currently Unchanged from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates (also) remain Unchanged.  Like it's counter-part, Yields have been pushing up against it's Ceiling of Resistance, which is a Fibonacci level.  This level has been very strong.  It's currently sitting at 2.75%.  I'm watching the stochastic charts, which may indicate a near trend reversal.  It's not clear yet, but it does look like there may be a possibility.

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Thursday, October 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 214k, which this week's data is important, as it's being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of it's Job Numbers.  The numbers for both Housing Starts and Building Permits look on the surface a bit disappointing, but they're not as bad as they appear.  I'll explain.  Augusts numbers for both indexes were revised a little higher; also, the drop-off in both indexes were due to a decline in Multi-Families, whereas, single families were up a little bit.  If you dig a little deeper into the numbers, then it's not THAT bad!  So, Housing Starts dropped from the revised 1.39 million to 1.26 million.  Building Permits dropped from 1.43 million to 1.39 million.  Philly Fed, which measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia region, dropped from 12.0 to 5.6 in October.  Industral Production declined 0.4% in September.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.9% to 77.5% in October.  Stocks are Up in early trading today.  We've been seeing fairly decent Q3 Earnings Reports thus far, even though it's relatively early in the releases.  There was an announcement that there may be a Brexit Deal in the works, which will still need to be voted by both sides' voting member.  The US and China are working out the language in Phase 1 of their Trade, as the US postponed the increase in Tariffs the other day, which China will increase their Agricultural products (estimated between $40-$50 Billion).  However, there is a Bill being introduced in the Senate that will look into a Review in Hong Kongs status, as they enjoy special treatment in terms of visas, tariffs, etc...  This is thought of being abused by the Chinese.  The Chinese has threatened to retaliate, if this Bill passes.  There are a few Fed Members speaking today, but there hasn't been any Market moving comments made by anybody.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are at 1.76%.

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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  September was not kind to Retail Sales, as they report a contraction of 0.3% in September; and when you exclude big ticket items, like Autos, then they dropped 0.1%.  This report increased the likelyhood of the Fed cutting rates at it's next FOMC from 78% to 90% chance.  Business Inventories remain unchanged MoM in August.  However, today's bright spot, lies with the Home Builder's Index, which measures the confidence level for Home Builders.  It jumped from 68 to 71 in October, which is a 20 month high. Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released, which will give us a more Micro-Economic viewpoint of the US Economy.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on recent bills passed by the US House of Representatives that take aim at support for the Hong Kong Protests, which will likely lead to China's ire.  Also, the Fed has begun a form of QE by buying $65 Billion of short-term Treasuries per month in order to create more liquidity and flatten out the Yield Curve.  This was first reported by BofJ last month, in order to protect it's Banking system.  There will be a few Fed Members speaking again today.  Also, more Q3 Corporate Earnings will be released, which will include Netflix, which many investors are awaiting.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 11bps, which may lead to Lenders to provide better pricing on Mortgage Rates, compared to where we closed yesterday.  There was a weakening in the Market yesterday, so Rates worsened in the late morning (PST).  Yields are down only 1bps to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing improved a bit in the NY region in September, as the Empire State Index rose from 2.0 in August to 4.0.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as we begin the Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports.  Today, we're seeing the Financial Sector, which seems to be a bit Mixed.  We have a few Fed Members speaking today, so we'll be listening for insight into the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is currently Down 8bps, after starting the morning higher.  Mortgage Rates on the West Coast should be about the same as what we saw on Friday's close, while East Coast may see a price change for the Worst, as the start was much higher.  Yields are currently sitting at 1.76% and going up against it's next ceiling (the Fibonacci level) after surpassing it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Friday, October 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment improved in October rising from 93.2 to 96.0.  Stocks are getting a huge lift this morning on optimism for a US and China Trade Deal, as President Trump tweeted that it's going very well and he's meeting the Vice Premier today.  Also, there is some optimism in the UK after a meeting between Ireland and England on a path from the EU may be feasible afterall.  Later today, there will be a few Fed Members speaking, including Fed Member Rosengren, whom is 1 of 3 dissenters from the last FOMC.  MBS is continuing it's downward trend, as Investment dollars flow from the safe haven of bonds to equities.  MBS is down another 31bps (after closing down 37bps yesterday).  Mortgage Rates have risen as a result.  Yields are storming up the chart, and are currently at 1.75%.

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Thursday, October 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from last week's 220k number to 210k, which is a good sign for Jobs.  Also, on the agenda is Consumer Inflation by the way of Consumer Price Index, which remained Unchanged from the previous month (MoM); and it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  When you remove the Food and Energy data, then you have the Core CPI.  It rose only 0.1% MoM, but it's YoY remained unchanged at 2.4%.  This bode well for investors because they believe it will make it easier for the Fed to continue cutting rates because inflation remains under control.  Stocks are Up again this morning, as optimistic sentiment continues with China's visit to the US today to start the Trade Negotiatoins.  There are several things by both sides whom are trying to diffuse the standoff and move in a positive direction.  There are a few Fed Members  whom will be speaking today, so Investors will look for clues to the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates have risen a bit.  They're testing it's double floor of support (50- and 25 DMA).  While Yields have climbed to 1.64% and pushing Up against it's 50 DMA.

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Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a pretty slow day today, as we only have the FOMC Minutes being released later this morning (around 11am PST).  Stocks are rebounding this morning on new optimism between US and China Trade negotiations.  Reports are coming out that we may have a limited deal coming soon.  So, this is boosting stocks!  MBS is Down 9bps so far, after 2 days of testing it's ceiling and close in negative territory.  Stochastic Chart indicates possible trend reversal, which we have some room with MBS until we hit a double floor (25- and 50 DMA) of support.  Yields have climbed back up to 1.56%.

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Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which gauges the confidence with Small Businesses, dropped from 103.1 to 101.8.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation with the Wholesale Sector, dropped 0.3% MoM, which it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.4%.  The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also dropped 0.3% MoM in September.  It's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.0%.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as Investors are concerned over possible heightened tensions before the upcoming meeting between US and China.  Yesterday, it was announced that the US will Blacklist 28 companies for Human Rights Violations to Muslim Minorities in China.  Also, Bloomberg is reporting that the Trump Administration is proceeding with discussions on restrictions of investment flows into China, especially with Pension Plans.  MBS is Up 11bps this morning.  However, yesterday (around Mid-day) the Market turned and closed -8bps.  Mortgage Rates (today) will be comparable to what we saw on Friday.  Yields started the day higher, but has slid down to 1.51%.

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Monday, October 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  The Stock Market is Down this morning on the disappointing data from last week and not feeling too optimistic ahead of this week's China/US trade negotiations, as reports are coming out that China is looking for a limited negotiation, not a full one.  So, nothing may happen this week.  MBS is Up 11bps and is currently above it's Fibonacci line.  We're approaching the same level in early September before bonds fell.  Yields are also up, which they're currently at 1.54%.

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Friday, October 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS' Non-Farm Payroll produced 136k jobs for September, which is down from 168k in August, and below it's forecast of 150k.  However, there was an upward revision of 45k jobs for the previous 2 months, which brought the 3 month average of 157k jobs.  This helped with Investors Sentiment.  Also, the Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5% (lowest since 1969).  The Average Hourly Earnings remained Unchanged in September, which it's Yearly Average dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%.  This data may assist the Fed with their thoughts at it's next FOMC on possible Rate Cuts, as this data suggests less stress on Inflationary numbers.  Stocks are in Positive Territory after a rough week.  It's been a week of Data driven sentiment, which has been disappointing, and would have been disappointing today, if not for the revision to the prior 2 months Jobs data.  MBS is Up 11bps and right up to it's next resistance level.  Meanwhile, Yields continue downward and are sitting at 1.52% this morning.

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Thursday, October 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims rose from 215k (which was revised higher from 213k) to 219k.  Tomorrow will the the BLS' September Jobs Report, which will have an Impact on the Market.  To continue with the Economic Calendar, the next 2 reports are on the Services Industry.  The Markit Services PMI remained unchanged from it's August to September data at 50.9.  However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index had a sharp drop from 56.4% to 52.6%.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion, and the ISM is a more closely watched report between the 2.  Factory Orders dropped 0.1% in August.  Stocks have continued their downward trend this morning on more poor economic data (ISM Services), which started the trend earlier this week on poor manufacturing and disappointing ADP data.  MBS is benefitting from the Stocks demise, as Investors are moving their investment dollars to flight of quality, and is currently Up 16bps.  It is sitting just below it's next overhead resistance.  Also, Yields are trending downward and currently resides at 1.55%.

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Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment Report only reminded investors on a contracting economy that we're now facing.  It's August numbers were revised lower by 38k, which went from 195k to 157k.  In September, it came in lower than expectations at 135k.  Most were expecting around 152k.  This bad news, coupled with yesterdays very bad data from ISM has Stocks plummeting.  The DOW is down more than 400 points this morning, and NASDAQ is down more than 100 points.  This is helping to push up MBS, as a flight to safety.  MBS is Up 16bps so far this morning.  Mortgage Rates are better this morning, however, some Lenders may be priced the same, as they may have priced their Rates around yesterday's high.  Yields continue it's decline and sit at 1.60%.

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Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing PMI rose just a tad in September, which it moved from 51.0 to 51.1.  However, the more important index, ISM Manufacturing Index went further into contraction mode in September, as it dropped from 49.1% to 47.8%.  This news further induced more worries over looming recession talk.  Meanwhile, Construction Spending rose only 0.1% in August.  Stocks were trading in Positive Territory to start the morning, as the Bank of Japan announced they'll pull back on their purchases of Bonds in an effort to strengthen their Banking System and boost Consumer Sentiment.  However, the Markets turned Negative after the ISM data was released.  China is celebrating it's 70th Anniversary of the People's Republic this week.  MBS had started in the hole this morning, and thus skyrocketed after the ISM news, and is currently Up 23bps.  Mortgage Rates have Improved today.  Meanwhile, Yields skyrocketed earlier in trade on news of BoJ, but quickly readjusted on the ISM data (breaking below it's 25 DMA).  It currently sits at 1.62%.

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